Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

[GAC]

If this team isn't a serious contender by 2025, it will be time to start over again.

That would be about right for that 4-5 timespan.

Up until about five years ago I was able to rattle of the Red's lineup. I have no idea any more, "who's on first?" LOL

But I agree with Bronson's comment - "It's very difficult to push toward a championship or to win a division when you have multiple guys on a team who already feel like they're fighting just to stay in the major leagues."

Amen

[MoneyInTheBank]

The Reds are doing pretty much what the Brewers did, sold off their old players, all the players that would not be around by 2024. The big difference is that the Brewers have always had a deeper solid core, a deeper organization, so when they sold off the older players, they still had a decent team to build around.

The Reds, thanks to poorly handling previous tear down, had almost nothing left after they traded away their older players. I think Krall’s plan to start building up that deeper core, which takes time, which means some tough years at the beginning.

I wear the same shoes as Bryce Harper

[Kc61]

Never gonna happen. India, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft will all be well into salary arbitration by that point. No way in hell The Reds pay them.

That’s why this style of team building just doesn’t work. Unless you have a slew of All-Stars come up and all get really good at once, you’re eventually gonna have to pay some people and it’s pretty obvious that The Reds don’t ever intend to do that again.

Just keep cashing those TV and revenue sharing checks while occasionally crapping on the fans in front of a microphone.

I don’t believe the Reds are that self-destructive. When they become competitive again, I don’t believe they’ll immediately tear it down. They may not keep all the same players, may be trades, payroll may not get very high. But even the Reds know they need to show W-L succes at some point.

[LeatherPants]

I don’t believe the Reds are that self-destructive.

Did you just wake up from a coma? If so, you’ve missed a bunch of stuff the last few years.

[Roy Tucker]

this is way too close to "where ya gonna go?"

It’s the fan side of that question. I can’t go with any other team and I can’t quit the Reds no matter what. For better or for worse.

[foster15]

He probably said the same thing about the 2008 and 2009 teams.

That is just plain ridiculous. One thing I know, Reds hired Dusty Baker in 2008 and Dusty Baker accepts no job where the team isn't ready to compete soon. And of course the new ownership(back then), like good con-men have to convince you that they're not con-men before it becomes obvious they are con-men and then live off the spoils.

[pedro]

Pretty sure he meant 45 years.


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[mth123]

That is just plain ridiculous. One thing I know, Reds hired Dusty Baker in 2008 and Dusty Baker accepts no job where the team isn't ready to compete soon. And of course the new ownership(back then), like good con-men have to convince you that they're not con-men before it becomes obvious they are con-men and then live off the spoils.

and that flukey draft Mike Leake and put him directly in the big-league rotation thing pulled the timeline ahead by a couple of years. I doubt that will happen this time.

[foster15]

and that flukey draft Mike Leake and put him directly in the big-league rotation thing pulled the timeline ahead by a couple of years. I doubt that will happen this time.

I think the real fluke was Josh Hamilton. Then turning him into Volquez and then Latos. I realize a lot of people would've preferred to keep Hamilton, but either way, it turned into a big something for absolutely nothing signing.

[mth123]

I think the real fluke was Josh Hamilton. Then turning him into Volquez and then Latos. I realize a lot of people would've preferred to keep Hamilton, but either way, it turned into a big something for absolutely nothing signing.

Yep, that too

[Kinsm]

Yep, that too

Given how terrible they have been at producing international talent I wouldn't argue either if someone said finding Cueto for 35K$ wasn't a fluke.

In addition health, having all 5 starters pitch all their games in 2012.

A lot of "fluke" things had to go right for the Reds for their limited successful years over the past 30 seasons.

[757690]

and that flukey draft Mike Leake and put him directly in the big-league rotation thing pulled the timeline ahead by a couple of years. I doubt that will happen this time.

Flukes happens all the time to every team, both good and bad. I am guessing most successful rebuilds have more good flukes than bad flukes. The Reds may not draft a player who can go straight to the majors, but I am positive a few similar flukes, both good and bad will happen.

But the Leake pick is not why the Reds starting contending in 2010, so much more happened that had to happen. As I pointed out only 6 significant players from the 2008 team were significant players on the 2010 team.

A huge turnover is going to have to happen to turn this team into contenders, but that happens all the time with rebuilding teams. That is not flukey, that’s rebuilding baseball.

The Reds may not turn into contenders by 2024, as I keep saying, much has to happen. But it’s quite possible. It happens all the time in MLB.

[mth123]

Flukes happens all the time to every team, both good and bad. I am guessing most successful rebuilds have more good flukes than bad flukes. The Reds may not draft a player who can go straight to the majors, but I am positive a few similar flukes, both good and bad will happen.

But the Leake pick is not why the Reds starting contending in 2010, so much more happened that had to happen. As I pointed out only 6 significant players from the 2008 team were significant players on the 2010 team.

A huge turnover is going to have to happen to turn this team into contenders, but that happens all the time with rebuilding teams. That is not flukey, that’s rebuilding baseball.

The Reds may not turn into contenders by 2024, as I keep saying, much has to happen. But it’s quite possible. It happens all the time in MLB.

The point is that it all had to happen. The starting pitching had been a weakness for a decade. If Leake’s fluke had not happened, that team would not have won the division.

[757690]

The point is that it all had to happen. The starting pitching had been a weakness for a decade. If Leake’s fluke had not happened, that team would not have won the division.

The Reds won the NL Central in 2010 by 5 games over the Cardinals.

Mike Leake started 22 games, 138 IP with a 4.23 ERA, 96 ERA+

I think the Reds win the division without Mike Leake in 2010, or at the very least are able to easily find that kind of production elsewhere.

[mth123]

The Reds won the NL Central in 2010 by 5 games over the Cardinals.

Mike Leake started 22 games, 138 IP with a 4.23 ERA, 96 ERA+

I think the Reds win the division without Mike Leake in 2010, or at the very least are able to easily find that kind of production elsewhere.

That's the same pipedream people have now. You can have gaping holes in the rotation and somehow magically it will be OK. The single biggest factor in any individual game is that day's starting pitcher. If the Reds would have filled that spot with a 5+ ERA guy, they lose a lot more of those starts. That team only won 91 games. It's not like they were a 100 game winning force. Take out one solid element and replace it with a question mark and its back to middle of the pack.