Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

[Bourgeois Zee]

That's the same pipedream people have now. You can have gaping holes in the rotation and somehow magically it will be OK. The single biggest factor in any individual game is that day's starting pitcher. If the Reds would have filled that spot with a 5+ ERA guy, they lose a lot more of those starts. That team only won 91 games. It's not like they were a 100 game winning force. Take out one solid element and replace it with a question mark and its back to middle of the pack.

So your plan would be to limit those black hole rotation and bullpen spots, replacing them with near league average (or better) production?

Does that go for the offensive players as well?

[mth123]

So your plan would be to limit those black hole rotation and bullpen spots, replacing them with near league average (or better) production?

Does that go for the offensive players as well?

Basically, but it assumes you have some above average guys to build around. Three middle of the order bats and a couple guys to get on ahead of them and a couple of All Star caliber starters and 3 or 4 guys you trust in high leverage relief situations. I think this team could have that. But, that's only part of the battle. After that, you need to minimize the black holes. You may have some, but this team has way too many and I don't see enough guys coming to eliminate enough of them. I think the biggest need long term is a number 3 caliber play-off starter. Add that to this mix and I think it has a better chance of coming together in the next 3 years. I just don't see it coming from the in-house group. They may get a couple back-end guys with an ERA in the 5ish range (which is better than guys like Vlad or SanMartin putting up an 8 ERA or so like they did early last year). Those should be your 6th, 7th and 8th starters. They need a number 3 or 4 type and a better number 5 type. That assumes Greene and Lodolo stay healthy and keep progressing.

Offensively, they need three guys to emerge as average or better big leaguers from among EDLC, Marte, CES, Steer, McLain. That would be a 60% success rate. I think that is pretty darned optimistic. Add three of those to Stephenson, India and Fraley and you just need to eliminate the sub .650 OPS guys. Hopefully somebody like Siani can fill a spot adequately. Not sure who else I really have any hopes for in the next 3 years. The problem is guys like Collier and Arroyo are probably replacements for India and Stephenson in the offense, not supplements to them. Even Marte may not arrive until India is on the way out. You have to have enough good players on the big-league team for having all these prospects to matter. If they produce 3 or 4 guys and that's all you have, you still won't be very good at the big-league level.

[Bourgeois Zee]

After that, you need to minimize the black holes. You may have some, but this team has way too many and I don't see enough guys coming to eliminate enough of them.

Who, in your opinion, are the biggest black holes offensively?

[757690]

That's the same pipedream people have now. You can have gaping holes in the rotation and somehow magically it will be OK. The single biggest factor in any individual game is that day's starting pitcher. If the Reds would have filled that spot with a 5+ ERA guy, they lose a lot more of those starts. That team only won 91 games. It's not like they were a 100 game winning force. Take out one solid element and replace it with a question mark and its back to middle of the pack.

I don’t agree with your theory that if the Reds put a 5+ ERA guy in place of Leake, the team would have fallen apart. However, that would not have been the option in 2010. Leake only made 22 starts. Travis Wood made 17 starts with a 3.51 ERA. Sam LeCure made 6 starts with a 4.86 ERA in those starts. Volquez came back the second half of the season, gave the Reds 12 starts with a 4.31 ERA.

Even if you don’t like those guys combining to fill Leake’s rotation spot, the Reds easily could have picked up a below average ERA, innings eater that off season or during the season. They had plenty of payroll space and were aggressive at that point. They had just made the big move to acquire Rolen the previous deadline.

Speaking of Rolen, that is one player that I think did have a bigger impact than his numbers on the team. But adding him wasn’t a “fluke” it was just a smart move by Jocketty. One interesting side note about the Rolen trade; when the trade was made at the 2009 deadline, many here complained it was made too soon, that the Reds were not close to competing in 2009, and that they needed to extend him to make the deal work. Just another example of how quickly a team can turn it around with just a few good moves.

[mth123]

Who, in your opinion, are the biggest black holes offensively?

Senzel
Barrero (Replaced by EDLC to fix that)
Steer
Whoever platoons with FRaley
Casali/Maile when Stephenson isn't Castching and then whoever replaces Stephenson after he's gone after 2024.
Whoever replaces India after 2024

Not black holes

Myers/Eventually Marte
Votto/Eventually CES
Fraley against RHP.
EDLC once he takes over.

If, huge if, McLain, Steer and Siani can prove to be better than a black hole, that would go a long way.

Even if those guys are OK, they still have a ton if black holes on the pitching staff. Right now its everyone not named Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Diaz. We'll see about Antone.

Greene and Lodolo and possibly Ashcraft gone after 2025.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Senzel
Barrero (Replaced by EDLC to fix that)
Steer
Whoever platoons with FRaley
Casali/Maile when Stephenson isn't Castching and then whoever replaces Stephenson after he's gone after 2024.
Whoever replaces India after 2024

Wut?

[Slyder]

Wut?

They're going to start hitting arbitration and fall victim to the churn.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They're going to start hitting arbitration and fall victim to the churn.

At the end of 2024?

Nah, dog.

No chance.

[mth123]

At the end of 2024?

Nah, dog.

No chance.

They'll be going into second year arb after 2024, Phil C says we can't afford to pay them as they get expensive. If they wait until year 5, then they'll be lame ducks and bring in worse 19 year olds who may they need for 2029 when they are dealing off Collier and Arroyo after their 4th season.

They need to pay some vets or extend some of their own guys. I'll believe it when I see it.

[757690]

They'll be going into second year arb after 2024, Phil C says we can't afford to pay them as they get expensive. If they wait until year 5, then they'll be lame ducks and bring in worse 19 year olds who may they need for 2029 when they are dealing off Collier and Arroyo after their 4th season.

They need to pay some vets or extend some of their own guys. I'll believe it when I see it.

They both will be free agents in 2027. That means the Reds will likely trade them, based on recent history, at the 2025 deadline.

They might trade them earlier, but only due to redundancy at their positions, or poor production. It won’t be financially based

Of course, every prediction about the Reds front office comes with the caveat that they change their plan all the time.

[Kingspoint]

As a Bengals' fan, I always had the hope of outliving Mike Brown, or at least outliving his control of the team.

With this Ownership Group, I don't even know who to wish VooDoo Karma on.

[mth123]

They both will be free agents in 2027. That means the Reds will likely trade them, based on recent history, at the 2025 deadline.

They might trade them earlier, but only due to redundancy at their positions, or poor production. It won’t be financially based

Of course, every prediction about the Reds front office comes with the caveat that they change their plan all the time.

That means after the 2026 season. They will trade with 2 years of control left. Maybe they'll stay until the 2025 deadline (same timing as the Castillo trade). Either way, the rebuild is already shedding its core before it gets started.

[InsaneinthBrame]

They both will be free agents in 2027. That means the Reds will likely trade them, based on recent history, at the 2025 deadline.

They might trade them earlier, but only due to redundancy at their positions, or poor production. It won’t be financially based

Of course, every prediction about the Reds front office comes with the caveat that they change their plan all the time.

The timeline mth123 stated is very realistic of the starting trade talks for them based on Mahle and Castillo they started to try to trade them with 2 years left that is what a lot of small markets are starting to do to max return and limit payrolls example is Marlins and Lopez. But it could drag to 2025 trade dealine. I do not see them moving him after 2025 or 2026 trade deadline those are just wasting an asset.

[Kingspoint]

Who, in your opinion, are the biggest black holes offensively?

Anyone with an OBP below .300.