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View Poll Results: Next Playoff Appearance

Voters
52. You may not vote on this poll
  • 2023

    1 1.92%
  • 2024

    11 21.15%
  • 2025

    13 25.00%
  • 2026

    7 13.46%
  • 2027

    3 5.77%
  • 2028

    2 3.85%
  • 2029

    0 0%
  • 2030 (or later)

    15 28.85%
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Thread: Next Playoff Appearance

  1. #16
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne Krivsky View Post
    I'm growing more and more pessimistic on 2023, but 2024 seems to have a chance as we have a ton of young talent that could hit the MLB level mid to late this season. Really just depends on if ownership will spend some cash after this year and if this team can actually have a flip of the switch type of success. Typically you need to gradually build up your roster. Hard to go from 60ish wins to 90 wins in a single season
    That assumes your good prospects are coming up to replace your worst players. If you are going to be churning guys after year 4 or 5, these prospects won't be replacing the team's worst players. They'll be replacing their best ones. I figure at tops they have 2 Years of Votto, 3 years of India and Stephenson and 4 years of Greene and Lodolo. Those are the team's best players. So they may get better by filling a black hole at SS with EDLC, but CES probably just replaces Votto. Marte replaces India. somebody else will need to replace Stephenson. Unless this team will bring in vets or extend some of these guys, adding prospects is just wheel spinning. Not sure who replaces Greene and Lodolo, assuming they take the next step and become guys we need to worry about replacing.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    REDREAD (01-23-2023)


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  4. #17
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    EDLC, Williamson, Siani, Stoudt, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt McLain are likely to stick in the majors sometime this season.

    Noelvi Marte, Joe Boyle, Andrew Abbott, Connor Phillips, Daniel Vellojin or Mat Nelson, Rece Hinds, Austin Hendrick, Allan Cerda, and Christian Roa come in 2024.
    Out of those 6 position players Marte is the only one who has a chance to be a decent MLB player in 2024. The rest of those guys strike out 30% of the time and hit around .200. Boyle might be a decent RP option if he can walk fewer then 10 per 9 innings, and Phillips has control issues to sort out if he's going to be a starter. I could see Abbott in the 5th spot of the rotation by 2024 if he has a good year in AA/AAA this year.

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  6. #18
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    Out of those 6 position players Marte is the only one who has a chance to be a decent MLB player in 2024. The rest of those guys strike out 30% of the time and hit around .200. Boyle might be a decent RP option if he can walk fewer then 10 per 9 innings, and Phillips has control issues to sort out if he's going to be a starter. I could see Abbott in the 5th spot of the rotation by 2024 if he has a good year in AA/AAA this year.
    I disagree with your assessment of which players are likely to be league average or better.

  7. #19
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I disagree with your assessment of which players are likely to be league average or better.
    I would seriously like to hear the argument for these guys being decent MLB players by 2024.

    Cerda 508 PA between A+/AA 168 SO .208 AVG

    Hendrick 444 PA between A/A+ 165 SO .217 AVG

    Hinds 322 PA between A+AA 125 SO .233 (also played in the fall league 90 PA 35 SO .226)

    Nelson 321 PA in A+ 108 SO .219 AVG

    Vellojin 271 PA A/A+/AA 79 SO .199 AVG

    Maybe if you could list some recent players that had similar numbers in the minors and became good MLB players two years latter I could be convinced there was some hope for these guys.

  8. #20
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    That assumes your good prospects are coming up to replace your worst players. If you are going to be churning guys after year 4 or 5, these prospects won't be replacing the team's worst players. They'll be replacing their best ones. I figure at tops they have 2 Years of Votto, 3 years of India and Stephenson and 4 years of Greene and Lodolo. Those are the team's best players. So they may get better by filling a black hole at SS with EDLC, but CES probably just replaces Votto. Marte replaces India. somebody else will need to replace Stephenson. Unless this team will bring in vets or extend some of these guys, adding prospects is just wheel spinning. Not sure who replaces Greene and Lodolo, assuming they take the next step and become guys we need to worry about replacing.
    You're not wrong, and this is why I think its 2024 or bust for this Reds group. Either they are willing to spend to actually acquire a few players in FA next offseason, possibly this trade deadline, or else we are in for a worst case scenario. Waiting any longer to make moves pushes towards the end of cheap versions of Lodolo/Greene/India/Stephenson/etc.

    The other piece though is even if the Reds are using their top prospects to replace established MLB players it comes back to value and what the Reds will do with the pieces they ship off. If we continue to deal MLB assets for A ball players then yes you are spot on, you simply can't get ahead by constantly churning the roster for guys 3 years away. No reason the Reds can't flip a guy like India for a rotation piece, OF, or high leverage bullpen arm depending on needs when the time comes. Of course with those type of trades you're getting either lesser players with more control or a similar skilled/similar contract at a different position and we still need ownership willing to extend them.

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    mth123 (01-23-2023)

  10. #21
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    I would seriously like to hear the argument for these guys being decent MLB players by 2024.

    Cerda 508 PA between A+/AA 168 SO .208 AVG

    Hendrick 444 PA between A/A+ 165 SO .217 AVG

    Hinds 322 PA between A+AA 125 SO .233 (also played in the fall league 90 PA 35 SO .226)

    Nelson 321 PA in A+ 108 SO .219 AVG

    Vellojin 271 PA A/A+/AA 79 SO .199 AVG

    Maybe if you could list some recent players that had similar numbers in the minors and became good MLB players two years latter I could be convinced there was some hope for these guys.
    Those aren't the only players you claimed would be bad, but I'll play.

    1. You forget about the soft skills in the game.
    Some of these prospects have high floors because of their speed, power, glove, arm, and/or positions played. A .220 BA with a .315 OBP but a .450 SLG is more than acceptable for a backup catcher, for example-- especially if said backup catcher is good at framing pitches. Not only that, those soft skills influence winning-- and player value. A guy like Allan Cerda might only hit .198 but end up a league average player due to his defense, speed, patience, and pop. There is more than one way to acquire WAR.

    2. You ignore the possibility that some of these prospects will develop or have developed.
    Austin Hendrick's last month or so of PAs showed a kid who finally understood the need to limit his swing zone. He only K'ed around 25% of the time from August 1 until the end of the season. That jibes with his production (which was much improved late in the season)-- and with his past. Hendrick's been limited since he signed due to various injuries and the pandemic. Sometimes, it takes kids longer. He is, after all, still only 21 years old and has had only 710 PAs in professional baseball. Rece Hinds has had 558 PAs in his three seasons. Mat Nelson has had 358. Best to exercise a bit of patience before proclaiming them as busts.

    3. You ignore injury in your analysis.
    Daniel Vellojin had a hamate injury to start last year. His first few weeks were his Spring Training. Hinds and Hendrick dealt with injuries on the season as well. Baseball is a difficult game-- it is made doubly so by having to catch up on PAs after everyone else has been able to ramp up. All three (predictably) struggled greatly coming off injuries. Take those PAs off their year-end totals, and suddenly, Daniel Vellojin, for example, looks pretty solid.

    Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying these guys are sure-fire All-Stars (or even guys who profile to be league average). I am saying that some of them may end up solid contributors at the major league level. A guy like Cerda, when put in the right spot, might well be pretty solid. Vellojin might well be an above average backup catcher. Hendrick or Hinds, due to upside and power, might end up a second-division starter even with BA well below average.

  11. #22
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying these guys are sure-fire All-Stars (or even guys who profile to be league average).
    See post #18 of this thread. I could see some of these guys as end of the bench fill ins at some point, but unless they have a major turn around in 2023 they aren't going to any where close to productive MLB players.

    I agree that we need to show patience with these players, but you're projecting them to be MLB ready by 2024 so that means they need to get things turned around in a hurry.
    Last edited by JCM11; 01-23-2023 at 12:53 PM.

  12. #23
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    2024 for me.

    Reasons -
    1 - Guys like Marte, EDLC etc. should be ready to contribute
    2 - The NLC is probably still a winable division without needing 100 wins, unlike the other 2
    3 - 6 teams make the postseason
    4 - Who know if they could expand the playoffs again, to 8 per league

  13. #24
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    This fan base deserves a successful season,
    I hope its a lot sooner than later

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    REDREAD (01-23-2023)

  15. #25
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    See post #18 of this thread. I could see some of these guys as end of the bench fill ins at some point, but unless they have a major turn around in 2023 they aren't going to any where close to productive MLB players.

    I agree that we need to show patience with these players, but you're projecting them to be MLB ready by 2024 so that means they need to get things turned around in a hurry.
    They will be "ready" during 2024-- likely for backup and spot starts.

    As backups and spot starters, they're likely to be just fine. High K totals, yes. But enough soft skills and development that they may end up better than those high K totals represent. Development, health, and soft skills tend to go a long way-- especially when they're only asked to do one or two things rather than carry the entire load.

  16. #26
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Roy rule #17 - things *always* go worse than think.

    Never bet on best case and don’t even bet on the middle case. Think of how things can go wrong, double it, and that’s a pretty good indicator of what will actually happen. Maybe not the exact things you think of but equivalent number of things will.

    The 2012 Reds overdrew from the karma bank when 5 starters started 161 of 162 games. They still have another 7-10 years to go to replenish that karma withdrawal.
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  18. #27
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    They will be "ready" during 2024-- likely for backup and spot starts.

    As backups and spot starters, they're likely to be just fine. High K totals, yes. But enough soft skills and development that they may end up better than those high K totals represent. Development, health, and soft skills tend to go a long way-- especially when they're only asked to do one or two things rather than carry the entire load.
    Out of all those position players besides Marte I think Hendrick is the one the Reds need to develop the most. I like his power/defense combo in RF as a left hand hitter, but the K's have to drop from 37%. I think 27% with some more walks is manageable, but he needs to show it over a full season.
    Last edited by JCM11; 01-23-2023 at 01:15 PM.

  19. #28
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    Out of all those position players besides Marte I think Hendrick is the one the Reds need to develop the most. I like his power/defense combo in RF as a left hand hitter, but the K's have to drop from 37%. I think 27% with some more walks is manageable, but he needs to show it over a full season.
    I don't think any of Cerda, Hinds, and Hendrick are "needed." Vellojin or Nelson might be, if only for backup purposes.

    IMO, two prospects-- likely two of Noelvi Marte, Elly de la Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, and Matt McLain-- need to be at least 10% better than league average offensively for the Reds to have a well above average offense. Pair those 110 wRC+ bats with the 115+ bats of India and Fraley and the 140+ bat of Stephenson. Add in 90 - 100 wRC+ bats at the other four spots. That's enough.

    The good news is that it might be possible.
    Marte should replace Myers (or whomever replaces Myers next season) in RF, Senzel/ Friedl/ Fairchild in CF, or Steer at 3B. (Steer would then replace Alejo Lopez as a utility guy.)
    EDLC replaces Barrero.
    McLain replaces Newman and becomes a utility guy capable of playing 2B, SS, or CF.
    Siani replaces the Senzel/ Fairchild/ Friedl platoon in CF. (Worried about this one, honestly, but I like Friedl and Fairchild to continue to produce, so Siani could well be a 5th OF.)
    Either Nelson or Vellojin replaces Maile or Casali.
    Cerda, Hinds, or Hendrick replace the fourth or fifth OF-- Friedl, Fairchild, or Senzel-- that Siani doesn't. (If they can beat him out. Again, that's questionable.)
    Christian Encarnacion-Strand replaces Votto or Steer (depending on whether he can handle 3B defensively).

    Not sure that CES can do the heavy lifting that Votto did in 2021, but pretty sure he can better his 2022. Not sure either Nelson or Vellojin can approach Casali's numbers, but pretty sure both are better than Maile offensively. Siani in CF is a massive question mark. (I think his development-- or perhaps another CF-- is key to whether the Reds compete for a pennant in the near future.)

    If Hendrick (or Hinds or Cerda or Marte or McLain) develop into a legitimate major league player, the Reds could well be competitive offensively. (And have a more than acceptable defensive alignment everywhere but India at 2B.)

    The pitching is... Woof. Lots more questions there.

  20. #29
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    I still think they should use some of the IF prospect surplus for trades to acquire pitching or a legit MLB CF if an opportunity is there. I could easily see one of the SS candidates in CF by 2024.

  21. #30
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Next Playoff Appearance

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    The fact that half of the poll takers thus far predict a playoff run within the next 3 years shows that RZone is still extremely optimistic about this ballclub, no matter what Phil C. says to convince you otherwise.
    Yep, I guess that's the benefit of owning a sports team, almost impossible to screw it up.
    I would never have guessed 1/2 the board thinks a playoff appearance is in within the next 3 years.
    I kind of doubt we will even be over 500 in the next 3 years.
    The balanced schedule really opens the door for the stronger NL East and West to grab more playoff spots.
    It's going to make it harder for the Brewers and Cardinals to get in, and of course the Reds (if they bother trying).
    Last edited by REDREAD; 01-23-2023 at 02:24 PM.
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