I start the 2023 thread before the 2022 season ends. Because it seems to me that some of the wheels are already turning. Things looming over the carousel this year: Unlike last year this is considered a pretty good QB year for the draft, as is the one coming in 2024.
Derek Carr has a 40 million dollar option that has to be decided on NLT 3 days after the Super Bowl. Brady is a Free Agent yet again. And Aaron Rogers is contemplating the Universe yet again.
There seems to be an abnormal amount of free agent QB's this year: Brady, Mayfield, Darnold, Garapalo, Bridgewater, Daniel Jones, Keenum, Brissett, Rudolph, Minshew, Geno Smith, Dalton, Mike White, Lamar Jackson, Heinicke, Lock, Stidham, Rush. And more.
I posted in the thread last year a quote from an Athletic article that stated "Don’t use significant resources for competency at QB". Teams would do well to keep that in mind, because I feel at least on team is going to violate that rule this year. And teams need to draw the line somewhere on QB salaries. The Packers last year signed a 3 year 150 million dollar contract on a 39 year old QB. And then had a losing record. And if he retires they have a 100 million dollar dead cap. 3 or 4 teams simply made stupid QB decisions that are going to set their teams back for 5 years or more.
Run thru divisions -
AFC East
Buffalo - 100% set with Allen
Patriots - Mac Jones had just an ok year. His numbers were down from his rookie year. His backup had better numbers. His team finished 8-9. Could the Pats make a move this year? Maybe. Unless he has a big bounce-back year in 2023, you figure something will change in 2024.
Dolphins - Tua had a roller coaster year. Played really well for a while, then cooled off, and then started getting hurt/concussed. The concussions are at least a little concerning that they might be (eventually) career ending. If ever a team needed a really good backup, Miami would seem to be that team. Last years backup Bridgewater is a FA.
Jets - At least for now Zach Wilson has bust written all over him. White was better but he is a FA also. Jets claim Wilson is still in their long term plans but no one thinks he will be the starter in 2023. Jets have a pretty solid nucleus, so you hear speculation of guys like Carr.
AFC South
Titans - Titans are one of those teams who have overpaid for competency. Tannehill is a decent game manager, but has a 27 million dollar salary and a 37 million dollar cap hit. They could save 9 million by releasing him (they are over the cap), but Malik Willis looked over-matched and was benched for Josh Dobbs in the last 2 crucial games. Tannehill is a Free agent after 2023. What Titans should NOT do is extend him on 2-3 year deal at 25 mill per year to lower cap hit in 2023. They have pick #11 in this years draft. Picking up Herndon Hooker (maybe not at #11) would make a LOT of sense.
Colts - Colts keep trying to patch the leak they sprung with Luck retirement with retreads and it has not worked. First Rivers. Last year Wentz. This year Ryan. Ryan will be released. Foles might be too. Ehlinger looked over-matched. Colts almost certainly seem to either sign a moderately in-demand FA or draft a QB of the future or both. Carr is also mentioned here. A team would have to be insane to trade for Carr before Vegas releases him. However, Jim Irsay directs all the QB decisions and he might be the least stable NFL owner.
Jags - Jags are in the sweet spot, with Lawrence on a rookie deal. They signed a QB out of CFL who might replace Beathard as a the backup.
Texans - Texans made out like a bandit on DeShaun Watson, getting 3 first rounders for him. Now they have 2nd overall pick and can get either Stroud or Young. My guess is Mills stays as backup/bridge.
AFC North
Bengals - 100% set with Burrow. They've been in the sweet spot with an elite QB on rookie deal. They are going to have to sign him soon. Is he going to demand a contract so high it hurts how good a team they can have?
Ravens - Lamar Jackson is a Free Agent. Baltimore says they are 200% bringing him back. Lamar acts as his own agent and wants a fully guaranteed deal like DeSean Watson. Frankly this has all the signs of a future bad deal coming down the pike. Oft injured QB who's come off his career highs, the team guaranteeing he'll come back. I think they'd be better off with a franchise tag and a trade. Backups didn't look good this year, so if they move on they need more.
Steelers - Draftee Pickett has secured #1 for now with Trubisky a capable backup. As long as Pickett continues to improve Steelers are set for a while.
Browns - The competition for worst QB move of 2022 is stiff but the leader after 1 year is probably Cleveland. They pay 3 first rounders (plus a few other picks) and then give him a 5 year fully guaranteed 230 million dollar deal. They pay him nothing in 2022, so his cap hit for the next 4 years is 55 mill per year, his dead cap number this year is over 200 mill. And then he came in and kinda stunk after 2 year layoff. 58% passing completion. 7/5 TD to Int. If he doesn't step it up big time, the next 4 years in Cleveland are going to be ugly.
AFC West
Chiefs - 100% set
Chargers - 100% set. Almost extension time.
Raiders - Team set up so new management could cut Carr loose after 1 season and that's exactly what they did. Sent him home with 2 games to go and looked at Stidham. At the time they cut him, Carr led the league in interceptions. Taking the last 2 games off gave that dubious distinction to Prescott/Mills (it's a Texas thing). So Raiders have no QB for 2023. Carr has to be traded or released 3 days after the Superbowl, or 40 million in guarantees kicks in. Carr has a no trade clause. All of that makes it almost crazy to trade for Carr. Is anyone dumb enough? As they say it only takes one team. Vegas is where a lot of the Brady rumors simmer. It would reunite him with his OC from Patriots.
Broncos - The other prime contender for stupidest QB move of 2022. Traded 2 first and 2 seconds and some players to Seattle for Russell Wilson who had been declining. And then before ever seeing how he looked signed him to a 5 year $242 million deal. Only to watch him pretty much stink all year. Helped get the HC fired. Now they are stuck with him for at least 3 more years, and to get rid of him in 4th will be painful ($31M dead cap)
NFC East -
Dallas - All of sudden that Prescott contract is looking a little dodgy. Dallas can't get far in the playoffs every year. He led the NFL in interceptions despite missing 5 games. And then threw 2 in a losing effort in the playoffs. He has at least 2 more very expensive (over $50m cap hit) years left on his deal. The 3rd year he could be cut with $21M dead cap. Backup Cooper Rush is a FA.
Philly - Jalen Hurts had a great year and solidified himself as one of better QB's in the game. Getting close to contract time. Backup Minshew is a FA/
Washington - Washington is the latest team to try and fail with Wentz. Taylor Heinecke is FA. Wentz is due $26 million but can be released with ZERO cap hit. I just can't figure out what the Commanders might do. /s Sam Howell got one game. Washington needs a starter and looks to tap into one of the Free Agents.
Giants - Giants did not pick up Daniel Jones 5th year option a year ago so he is a FA. He performed much better this yar and the Giants say they want him back. This is the team that is going to overpay for average. Sign him for 3 or 4 years at 10-12 million. If he doesn't want that..... move on. Instead they will give the guy 25 million a year for 3 years.
NFC South
Tampa - Almost everyone thinks Brady is moving on. If he does he leaves behind a $35 mill dead cap hit. And an organization who fired a lot of their staff but kept the HC. Gabbert is a FA, Trask is under contract and got almost no time. They might also seem to be a spot for a free agent.
New Orleans - Dalton is a FA. Even at the end when he was a lame duck they wouldn't play Winston who has one more year. He only saves 4 million if cut so they probably keep him. Saints have worst cap situation in the league. They kicked the can down the road last year, making this year even worse. Honestly I look at their cap situation and wonder how they can get out of it. They are going to struggle with the cap for years. I would play Winston/Hill and draft some lottery ticket and see if you get lucky. To me they simply can't afford to get a FA.
Carolina - Played musical chairs all year, before releasing Mayfield and handing the reins to bearded Darold who was better than clean-shaven Darnold. Matt Corrall missed the entire season. Still most people think Carolina is a candidate for a Free Agent or draftee.
Atlanta - Gave Mariota a try at QB and decide later in the season he wasn't the guy. Mariota decides he is injured and leaves the team. 2022 Draftee Ridder has 4 game stint and looks ok. My guess is they give Ridder another year to see if he can become a solid QB. They might want to sign a solid backup.
NFC North
Packers - Aaron Rogers once again deciding what to do. Packers foolishly gave him big deal which leaves them with salary issue if he leaves. I say he comes back. Supposedly there is already something in his contract which moves money to future years if he comes back. (makes future years worse). Adam Schefter reports that the Packers will only trade Rodgers to an AFC team and would want 2 First round picks. If you can trade 39 year old Rodgers for 2 first rounders, you should do it no matter which conference it is. They also have to make a decision on Jordan Love, a guy who they have completely wasted. If they pick up his 5th year option for 2024 it will be for over 20 million and he will be a free agent. He's cheap in 2023. If you keep Rodgers don't pick up the option. If you trade Rodgers, MAYBE pick up the option. If you actually think he's good 20 million in 2024 isn't bad.
Vikings - Cousins will be the man again in 2023. They actually could move on in 2024 with only a $12mill dead cap. Unless they re-work his deal again to solve their cap issues. They should try to avoid that. He'll be 36 in 2024.
Bears - Bears are in an interesting spot. They backed into the #1 draft pick. They have a TON of money to spend. #1 in cap space. They have a GM and HC who did not draft Fields. Fields has used 2 of his cheap years. Fields has been a spectacular runner (over 1,000 yards) but just an ok passer. 60% with 17/11 TD/INT ratio. They can have any QB they want, and reset the cheap years and trade Fields for a haul. Or they can trade the pick for a haul. Or they can take any other non-QB they want. I assume the safe choice is trade the pick and stick with Fields. But I'd be tempted to trade Fields if they love a QB. They one thing I would NOT do is just stay at #1 and take best player.
Lions - Lions really turned things around with Goff this year. The deal to acquire him for Stafford has worked out very well for Detroit. He's 6 years younger. He's healthy whereas Stafford missed half of 2022 with back injury. He costs 30 mill per year. Stafford will be 20 mill this year but 50 mill the next 2 years. Stafford was very mediocre (10/8 TD/Int ratio) when he did play, and Goff had a 65% completion rate and 29/7 ratio. They used the first #1 pick to get Jameson Williams this year and now have the #6 overall pick in 2023 from the trade. There were people talking about Lions drafting a QB of the future. I think that's crazy. I stick with Goff.
NFC West
Rams - Rams QB situation (and everything else) got ugly quickly. Rams fresh off a SB win extend 34 year old Stafford for 4 years and 160 million. Stafford went from a Super Bowl and a 41/17 TD/Int ratio, to a 10/8 ratio, missing half the season with a back injury some people were considering possibly career-ending. He's coming back, and Rams have to make a decision to pick up his 2024 and 2025 options. Apparently they will. It costs the Rams 20 million more to cut him than keep him. His cap hit in 2023 is only 20 million but the next 2 years it will be 50 million each. Right now Rams are 30 and 31st in cap space in 2024/2025. Only the Saints are worse. Rams are unsettled at backup.
49's - It was a wild ride in 2022 for 49's. They hung onto Garapolo waiting for an injury to happen for some team. Then the injury happened to SF and Trey Lance in game 2, and Garapolo took over and played great. Till he gets hurt and Rams have to play Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy). All Purdy has done is win every game he's ever played in. (next 2 games may be harder !). So SF goes into 2023 with Purdy and Lance both cheap. Great situation.
Seattle - Seattle trades Russell Wilson for a Kings Ransom, and then is a better team without him. Geno Smith has a WAY better season than anyone expects. He's a FA. And Seattle doesn't have much else at QB. Geno was very cheap in 2022 at 3.5 million. Now Seattle has to decide how much to pay for a one hit wonder. Will he have 4 or 5 more good years and turn out a Greatest Hits album? Or will he remain a blip on the radar who got signed to an expensive deal. It would have behooved Seattle to sign him last year with some cheap option years in case he succeeded.
Cards - Another bad set of decisions from Cards. They give in to blackmail from Kyler Murray who was already under contract for 2022 and 2023 but wanted a longer term deal immediately,, and started pouting on social media. They give him the deal despite rumors of him not being the best clubhouse influence, and feel compelled to give him a bonus if he actually studied the playbook. (a condition later removed after a hue/cry). He's just fair. The team is 3-7 in games he starts and then he tears his ACL. The GM and HC that drafted him and resigned him are both fired after the season (GM had health issues). He has 3 expensive years coming from 2023-2025. He'll miss the start of 2023. And they have bad backups.