That's an interesting question, honestly.Originally Posted by krazzy
I think it depends completely on whether the Reds are going to be okay with moving EDLC, Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt McLain (among others) to the major league level relatively early.
Steer has a position that's been pretty much handed to him. He has to perform, of course, but he's got that spot already. EDLC doesn't have as open a position, especially considering Cincinnati traded for Newman and wants to look at Barrero as well. More and more, I'm thinking the Reds' plan (such as it is) will be to start De La Cruz in Chattanooga instead of Louisville. They have two former major league SS in Louisville now (Reynolds and Richie Martin)-- and signed/ kept both when they didn't have to.
I could see Krall and company thinking they're being next-level smart in staggering McLain (AAA), EDLC (AA), Marte (Hi-A), and Arroyo (lo-A) for half a season with the hopes that they might put up massive numbers and/or fix their issues against lesser competition. Of course, that goes against just about everything the Rays and Guardians do in development, but that's par for the course, right?
Might be smart to stagger them a little bit so they all don’t become FA the same year. Makes it easier to move guys and fill holes if the Reds are going to do a churn and burn style of building moving forward.
Revering4Blue (01-29-2023)
The player (and his performance) informs the franchise when he's ready, not the other way around. (Well, not the other way around for good franchises, at any rate.)
Beyond that, it's really bad planning to stagger your best prospects-- unless the franchise is more concerned with money than with competing. If I'm an owner, I want my best players playing together, thereby increading the competitiveness and likelihood to win championships.
Good franchises. Like the Cubs when they won the series in 2016? It might be smart to stagger a guy or two so there aren’t gaping holes popping up certain years. If done strategically and in moderation, it’s not a bad strategy. If it’s done to the extreme detriment of the team and players it is.
The Cubs kept Kris Bryant back one week. He, Soler, Schwarber, and Russell all came up in 2015.
Contreras, Edwards, and Almora came up in 2016.
I would guess DLC starts the season in Louisville but Chattanooga wouldn’t shock me. I think the earliest he would be brought up to the Reds is the all star break. Can’t risk him finishing in the top 2-3 (can’t remember which) of the ROY voting. Can’t lose a year of control for nothing. If Barrero fails to show significant improvement, I think McLain would get the first shot.
Why can't they risk having his finish in the top 2-3 in ROY voting?
Don't they get an extra pick out of that?
Not unless he is up early enough to count as a whole year if service time. Take this year as an example. Adley Rutschman finished 2nd, the Orioles lose a year of control but don’t get draft pick compensation because he came up too late.
It’s hard to bring up four guys who are “ready” and who all play the same position. Somebody’s (plural) got to learn new positions and the minors are the place to learn.
I know everyone thinks that SS should just be handed to EDLC, but he can be just as valuable to the team at another position. Some have suggested Marte in RF. I’m for that, but the move needs to be made sooner rather than later. I really see McLain in a super-sub role (2B/SS/OF). Arroyo is the best defender of the four guys at SS, but he is still young and it’s unclear how his bat will play out. He could end up a Gold Glove SS with an average bat, or a weak hitting defensive SS.
I would go with best defense first, and sort out the hitting in other positions. EDLC may be the best defensive option for the next two years, but Arroyo may become the better option in the third year. Defense helps the pitching.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
If the Reds want to win before the Greene-Lodolo window closes, they need at least 3 of EDLC, Marte, Steer, Barrero, McLain and CES come up and start producing like above average big league bats this year. (This assumes Greene and Lodolo can stay healthy and reproduce what they did in August and September over a full season, Ashcraft can stay healthy and productive, they can get full productive seasons from here on out of India, Stephenson and Fraley and that they are willing to spend some money to address the other holes that become more apparent after we see how this shakes out).
MY assessment of all of this actually happening is somewhere between having a winning lotto ticket and pigs actually flying. If more than 3 of those guys can establish themselves before the Reds start looking to churn the pitching they have (I'm guessing after the 2025 season) the chances go up, but I think that is an even longer shot.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Marketed properly, an IF of Steer 3B, Barrero SS, India 2B and Encarnacio-Strand 1B with Votto DH Stephenson C, and an OF of EDLC in RF Fraley in LF and McClain in CF would be so interesting to fans.
I mean it probably would be a tire fire, but man I'd watch every day.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
I think the 3 year window is about right. As I said, they need 3 of Steer, Barrero, EDLC, Marte, McLain and CES to come up and establish themselves as above average major leaguers this year. Ideally it will be three guys who can play in the middle of the diamond (2b, SS and CF). India needs to move off of 2B and SS and CF are the black holes at the moment.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Three points:
1. Not sure they're going to have three offensive prospects come up this season. Steer will, for sure. The rest are maybe cups of coffee late in the season, at best. Barrero will play SS most of the season (if Newman isn't). Votto and Stephenson are at 1B and DH. Steer's at 3B. India's at 2B. Regardless, we shouldn't expect any of them (aside from perhaps Steer) to do any establishing. (Unless, of course, it's Barrero. But more on him later.))
For a team as bad as the Reds project to be, there just aren't very many holes.
2. CF is going to be the domain of Michael Siani or Jay Allen. Maybe Austin Hendrick or Allan Cerda play there as well. McLain hasn't sniffed the position since UCLA. EDLC has never tried it. Barrero would have to find his bat-- even then, he's a SS. Why move him?
Speaking of Barrero, the continued acquisition of guys who are SS-capable seems so incredibly odd to me. Newman was at least slightly defensible. He can man 2B or SS well, and the Reds are banking on the idea that he can hit somewhere around 5-10% below league average. That's a good backup in today's game. They just signed Chad Pinder, kept Matt Reynolds instead of releasing him, and signed Richie Martin to a minor league contract a couple of weeks ago. Pinder and Reynolds provide nearly the same value as does Newman-- that of a decent backup who's capable of filling in all over the place. Does it seem, then, that the Reds have any confidence whatsoever in Barrero?
3. I'm going to push back on a couple of black holes in a totally semantic argument. SS and CF are not, IMO, the worst positions in the Red pipeline.
CF has a ready-made league average or better offensive/ defensive platoon already on the roster in Friedl and Fairchild. Last year, in 350 PAs, they had a 110 OPS+ between them. I'm extremely doubtful the Reds see it that way, of course. I suspect they see Michael Siani-- a defense-first bantamweight who was barely league average in AA last year-- as the heir apparent to failed prospect and perpetually pained Nick Senzel. Still, at least Siani might provide some value. He has wheels and a supposed elite glove. There's Jay Allen behind him, who has both of those and a little more power to unlock. There is some hope there, at least.
SS has Barrero and the recently acquired Newman. I'd argue, in a rebuilding season, they have to play Barrero for at least April and May to see what he has. (Again, they're likely not to do just that. Because the Reds are stupid.) From that point, EDLC and McLain are natural options for the spot. Both are going to need PAs. EDLC, in particular, looks to be seriously promising. So yeah, these two positions are currently black holes, but at least there are options there. You can squint and see something that might fit there and not suck.
I see no such option for corner outfielder beyond Fraley. That is the black hole position to me. Cerda can play RF. He has power and a Mendoza BA. Woof. At least Aristides Aquino hit well in the minors. How low will that .192 BA go in the majors? Hinds is a human windmill who can't stay healthy enough to find a consistent swing. He was vastly overmatched in the AFL. Hendrick might be worse. Confidan is at least three years away and coming off a lost season. There is absolutely nothing on the horizon that looks like it might be league average.
Catcher is another spot-- beyond Stephenson, what do they have? A metric crap ton of MLB veterans that are unlikely to hit their weight, that's what. Then here's Daniel Vellojin, who's likely to start the season in AA. He just had a really nice winter league in Venzuela where he showed power, patience, and a good BA. That gives me hope because his 2022 was pretty bad. I'm going to give him a pass for Daytona because that was his Spring Training after the hamate injury. But the .226 combined BA between Hi-A and AA wasn't great. (The 9 HR in 200 PA was, though. That power might play as a backup.) And that's just it. He's the best option right now in the Red system. Nelson's a waste of a high draft pick. No one else has more than a handful of professional PAs. It's a vast chasm filled with questions and empty power. Ick.
On the big-league team, they Have Wil Myers in RF. Nick Senzel in CF and Jose Barrero at SS. CF and SS are the black holes.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
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