Great article on which prospects will have the most impact this season

[TRF]

Marketed properly, an IF of Steer 3B, Barrero SS, India 2B and Encarnacio-Strand 1B with Votto DH Stephenson C, and an OF of EDLC in RF Fraley in LF and McClain in CF would be so interesting to fans.

I mean it probably would be a tire fire, but man I'd watch every day.

[Old school 1983]

We disagree.

I don't give two farts in the wind about the perceived budget ownership claims we have to have. It's fake.

We also disagree about staggering prospects in order to control them longer and pay them less. It's bad business that causes hard feelings and can lead directly to losses.

It’s pretty easy to blow up anyone’s point when you can just say spend more and not utilize what they’ll actually spend in reality as a real life marker in the conversation. What will actually spend on the team is the real part. The “I think they should spend this much” on RZ is the fake part. The GM is given real life parameters to work within. No amount of him clicking ruby slippers together and saying there’s no place like penurious is going to change those parameters. So act intelligently within them rather than acting like they’re fake. Strategically staggering a FA date or two allows less holes to fill within a single off season, and even to save some money before guys get extended.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Strategically staggering a FA date or two allows less holes to fill within a single off season, and even to save some money before guys get extended.

Let me try this another way, 1983:

The window for the Reds most assuredly has Greene and Lodolo at its forefront-- and considering the other options, likely Stephenson and India. They've got three years, at most, then. Holding back prospects like EDLC in AA instead of AAA delays their arrival by months if not years. Instead, then, of arriving in 2023, acclimating to the majors, and learning from the veterans then, he's doing that in 2024 or 2025. That closes the Reds' competitive window.

Sure, that saves ownership some cash in the short run. But not in the long run. Because prospects are people too. They know when they're being jerked around. They know right away it's a business-- and they're being treated as an asset and not a person. As a result, they're less likely to sign team-friendly LTC to limit their arbitration raises. We need look no further than San Diego and Atlanta for development done right. Both have been able to sign massively talented players at lesser contracts due to their willingness to treat them like human beings. That's saved those teams tens of millions in the long run. Delaying a prospect for the extra year is cutting off your nose to spite your face thinking-- it's small-minded. It causes bad feelings between player and team, which means they'll have to fill the spot after six years, they're more likely to go to arbitration (and pay more) for three years of arbitration, and they're unhappy while on the team. It most definitively does not save money before guys get extended.

Sure, it might allow them to deal him earlier for better prospects. Yay for ownership, I guess. That too keeps them from winning. Why would we, as fans, be happy with that?

The most laughable point in this conversation is you calling BS on team spending. The fakery is ownership delaying prospects in order to win. The fake part is ownership caring at all about winning. You continue to assume this is a grand scheme of inherent intelligence. It's just ownership being cheap, man. The way for that to change, then, is for ownership to pay up or, conversely, to change hands. Delaying prospects like EDLC in AA or Marte in Hi-A or CES in AA hurts the team on the field-- that same team you claim you want to see succeed.

[mth123]

I think the 3 year window is about right. As I said, they need 3 of Steer, Barrero, EDLC, Marte, McLain and CES to come up and establish themselves as above average major leaguers this year. Ideally it will be three guys who can play in the middle of the diamond (2b, SS and CF). India needs to move off of 2B and SS and CF are the black holes at the moment.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think the 3 year window is about right. As I said, they need 3 of Steer, Barrero, EDLC, Marte, McLain and CES to come up and establish themselves as above average major leaguers this year. Ideally it will be three guys who can play in the middle of the diamond (2b, SS and CF). India needs to move off of 2B and SS and CF are the black holes at the moment.

Three points:

1. Not sure they're going to have three offensive prospects come up this season. Steer will, for sure. The rest are maybe cups of coffee late in the season, at best. Barrero will play SS most of the season (if Newman isn't). Votto and Stephenson are at 1B and DH. Steer's at 3B. India's at 2B. Regardless, we shouldn't expect any of them (aside from perhaps Steer) to do any establishing. (Unless, of course, it's Barrero. But more on him later.))

For a team as bad as the Reds project to be, there just aren't very many holes.

2. CF is going to be the domain of Michael Siani or Jay Allen. Maybe Austin Hendrick or Allan Cerda play there as well. McLain hasn't sniffed the position since UCLA. EDLC has never tried it. Barrero would have to find his bat-- even then, he's a SS. Why move him?

Speaking of Barrero, the continued acquisition of guys who are SS-capable seems so incredibly odd to me. Newman was at least slightly defensible. He can man 2B or SS well, and the Reds are banking on the idea that he can hit somewhere around 5-10% below league average. That's a good backup in today's game. They just signed Chad Pinder, kept Matt Reynolds instead of releasing him, and signed Richie Martin to a minor league contract a couple of weeks ago. Pinder and Reynolds provide nearly the same value as does Newman-- that of a decent backup who's capable of filling in all over the place. Does it seem, then, that the Reds have any confidence whatsoever in Barrero?

3. I'm going to push back on a couple of black holes in a totally semantic argument. SS and CF are not, IMO, the worst positions in the Red pipeline.

CF has a ready-made league average or better offensive/ defensive platoon already on the roster in Friedl and Fairchild. Last year, in 350 PAs, they had a 110 OPS+ between them. I'm extremely doubtful the Reds see it that way, of course. I suspect they see Michael Siani-- a defense-first bantamweight who was barely league average in AA last year-- as the heir apparent to failed prospect and perpetually pained Nick Senzel. Still, at least Siani might provide some value. He has wheels and a supposed elite glove. There's Jay Allen behind him, who has both of those and a little more power to unlock. There is some hope there, at least.

SS has Barrero and the recently acquired Newman. I'd argue, in a rebuilding season, they have to play Barrero for at least April and May to see what he has. (Again, they're likely not to do just that. Because the Reds are stupid.) From that point, EDLC and McLain are natural options for the spot. Both are going to need PAs. EDLC, in particular, looks to be seriously promising. So yeah, these two positions are currently black holes, but at least there are options there. You can squint and see something that might fit there and not suck.

I see no such option for corner outfielder beyond Fraley. That is the black hole position to me. Cerda can play RF. He has power and a Mendoza BA. Woof. At least Aristides Aquino hit well in the minors. How low will that .192 BA go in the majors? Hinds is a human windmill who can't stay healthy enough to find a consistent swing. He was vastly overmatched in the AFL. Hendrick might be worse. Confidan is at least three years away and coming off a lost season. There is absolutely nothing on the horizon that looks like it might be league average.

Catcher is another spot-- beyond Stephenson, what do they have? A metric crap ton of MLB veterans that are unlikely to hit their weight, that's what. Then here's Daniel Vellojin, who's likely to start the season in AA. He just had a really nice winter league in Venzuela where he showed power, patience, and a good BA. That gives me hope because his 2022 was pretty bad. I'm going to give him a pass for Daytona because that was his Spring Training after the hamate injury. But the .226 combined BA between Hi-A and AA wasn't great. (The 9 HR in 200 PA was, though. That power might play as a backup.) And that's just it. He's the best option right now in the Red system. Nelson's a waste of a high draft pick. No one else has more than a handful of professional PAs. It's a vast chasm filled with questions and empty power. Ick.

[JCM11]

I expect both McLain and Elly to be up before the ASB with the Reds. Maybe Siani as well if Senzel and company are totally bombing in CF. I could see CES up in Sept and perhaps a little sooner if he destroys AAA pitching. I don't see a Marte call up in 2023 as they need to sort out where he's going to play defensively first. I don't think it's a guarantee any of these players establish themselves as above average MLB players in 3 months or less. McLain is the one I'd be most aggressive with because he's already 23 and the middle IF defense could use a boost. I want a plus defender at second with the shift gone and India isn't the answer IMO.

[mth123]

Three points:

1. Not sure they're going to have three offensive prospects come up this season. Steer will, for sure. The rest are maybe cups of coffee late in the season, at best. Barrero will play SS most of the season (if Newman isn't). Votto and Stephenson are at 1B and DH. Steer's at 3B. India's at 2B. Regardless, we shouldn't expect any of them (aside from perhaps Steer) to do any establishing. (Unless, of course, it's Barrero. But more on him later.))

For a team as bad as the Reds project to be, there just aren't very many holes.

2. CF is going to be the domain of Michael Siani or Jay Allen. Maybe Austin Hendrick or Allan Cerda play there as well. McLain hasn't sniffed the position since UCLA. EDLC has never tried it. Barrero would have to find his bat-- even then, he's a SS. Why move him?

Speaking of Barrero, the continued acquisition of guys who are SS-capable seems so incredibly odd to me. Newman was at least slightly defensible. He can man 2B or SS well, and the Reds are banking on the idea that he can hit somewhere around 5-10% below league average. That's a good backup in today's game. They just signed Chad Pinder, kept Matt Reynolds instead of releasing him, and signed Richie Martin to a minor league contract a couple of weeks ago. Pinder and Reynolds provide nearly the same value as does Newman-- that of a decent backup who's capable of filling in all over the place. Does it seem, then, that the Reds have any confidence whatsoever in Barrero?

3. I'm going to push back on a couple of black holes in a totally semantic argument. SS and CF are not, IMO, the worst positions in the Red pipeline.

CF has a ready-made league average or better offensive/ defensive platoon already on the roster in Friedl and Fairchild. Last year, in 350 PAs, they had a 110 OPS+ between them. I'm extremely doubtful the Reds see it that way, of course. I suspect they see Michael Siani-- a defense-first bantamweight who was barely league average in AA last year-- as the heir apparent to failed prospect and perpetually pained Nick Senzel. Still, at least Siani might provide some value. He has wheels and a supposed elite glove. There's Jay Allen behind him, who has both of those and a little more power to unlock. There is some hope there, at least.

SS has Barrero and the recently acquired Newman. I'd argue, in a rebuilding season, they have to play Barrero for at least April and May to see what he has. (Again, they're likely not to do just that. Because the Reds are stupid.) From that point, EDLC and McLain are natural options for the spot. Both are going to need PAs. EDLC, in particular, looks to be seriously promising. So yeah, these two positions are currently black holes, but at least there are options there. You can squint and see something that might fit there and not suck.

I see no such option for corner outfielder beyond Fraley. That is the black hole position to me. Cerda can play RF. He has power and a Mendoza BA. Woof. At least Aristides Aquino hit well in the minors. How low will that .192 BA go in the majors? Hinds is a human windmill who can't stay healthy enough to find a consistent swing. He was vastly overmatched in the AFL. Hendrick might be worse. Confidan is at least three years away and coming off a lost season. There is absolutely nothing on the horizon that looks like it might be league average.

Catcher is another spot-- beyond Stephenson, what do they have? A metric crap ton of MLB veterans that are unlikely to hit their weight, that's what. Then here's Daniel Vellojin, who's likely to start the season in AA. He just had a really nice winter league in Venzuela where he showed power, patience, and a good BA. That gives me hope because his 2022 was pretty bad. I'm going to give him a pass for Daytona because that was his Spring Training after the hamate injury. But the .226 combined BA between Hi-A and AA wasn't great. (The 9 HR in 200 PA was, though. That power might play as a backup.) And that's just it. He's the best option right now in the Red system. Nelson's a waste of a high draft pick. No one else has more than a handful of professional PAs. It's a vast chasm filled with questions and empty power. Ick.

On the big-league team, they Have Wil Myers in RF. Nick Senzel in CF and Jose Barrero at SS. CF and SS are the black holes.

[Bourgeois Zee]

On the big-league team, they Have Wil Myers in RF. Nick Senzel in CF and Jose Barrero at SS. CF and SS are the black holes.

I assumed you were talking about the three-year window.

[mth123]

I assumed you were talking about the three-year window.

I think they need to establish players in year one, compete in year two and hopefully step forward in year three. If they do that, maybe they'll hold on to the pitching another year or two and try to compete.

If they go as slow as some are suggesting, they won't shake the position guys out until Greene and Lodolo have used up their entire pre-arb careers. That gives them a one and done shot at it IMO and those never really work out.

[HokieRed]

Need to abandon window thinking altogether. Move players at their pace and not according to any preconceived pattern. Get over the fear that you need to move players before the arb years or you'll get nothing for them. Keep the ones that are essential through arb years. Try to extend a very selected few but with the full knowledge that in today's market anybody you probably would want to extend will want to try the free agency market. Recognize that the ballpark is probably an insurmountable obstacle to signing top of the rotation (by which I mean 1 through 3's) starters as free agents from without or within. Commit to drafting and trading with the number one principle that the organization must produce at least one competent ML starter per year.

[mth123]

Need to abandon window thinking altogether. Move players at their pace and not according to any preconceived pattern. Get over the fear that you need to move players before the arb years or you'll get nothing for them. Keep the ones that are essential through arb years. Try to extend a very selected few but with the full knowledge that in today's market anybody you probably would want to extend will want to try the free agency market. Recognize that the ballpark is probably an insurmountable obstacle to signing top of the rotation (by which I mean 1 through 3's) starters as free agents from without or within. Commit to drafting and trading with the number one principle that the organization must produce at least one competent ML starter per year.

I agree in Theory, but this hoped for attempt to compete only works if:

1. Greene and Lodolo can do what they did last August and September over 30 starts
2. They stay healthy
3. Until they price themselves out of town.

Once they are gone, its 4th place until the next Greene and Lodolo come along. The first cheap year is already gone. The second will be used up in another non-compete year this year. Next year will be the last pre-arb year. The clock is ticking.

[HokieRed]

I think you refuse to hear the clock ticking. Greene and Lodolo are under control for five more seasons. You'll never be able to extend them so I wouldn't worry about it (I say this primarily because of GABP). Continue building the starter pipeline behind them and keep them all the way to free agency if the team is strong enough. If you have a decently competent starting rotation every year, you'll be competitive. My primary thesis is that, given what we've seen in the FA market the last couple of years, Cincinnati will never be able to use the FA route to strengthen its rotation, except in the 4 or 5 spot. I think you can acquire some appropriate position players from time to time and use the ballpark to get some aspiring bounce-back types--Drury, Myers etc. But throw out the window thinking and just get on with the main task--building a starting pitching pipeline. Whether McClain or India is the second baseman in a couple of years doesn't matter all that much IMHO. What matters is the rotation.

[krazzy]

Greene and Lodolo need to be traded with 1 1/2-2 years of control left. Have to stick with the plan. Only way we can win. Can’t spend with the big boys. Hopefully we can buy out a couple years of free agency.

[HokieRed]

Greene and Lodolo need to be traded with 1 1/2-2 years of control left. Have to stick with the plan. Only way we can win. Can’t spend with the big boys. Hopefully we can buy out a couple years of free agency.

Disagree. It all depends on how good the team is. If they are the key to your being in serious contention, you roll the dice.

[mth123]

I think you refuse to hear the clock ticking. Greene and Lodolo are under control for five more seasons. You'll never be able to extend them so I wouldn't worry about it (I say this primarily because of GABP). Continue building the starter pipeline behind them and keep them all the way to free agency if the team is strong enough. If you have a decently competent starting rotation every year, you'll be competitive. My primary thesis is that, given what we've seen in the FA market the last couple of years, Cincinnati will never be able to use the FA route to strengthen its rotation, except in the 4 or 5 spot. I think you can acquire some appropriate position players from time to time and use the ballpark to get some aspiring bounce-back types--Drury, Myers etc. But throw out the window thinking and just get on with the main task--building a starting pitching pipeline. Whether McClain or India is the second baseman in a couple of years doesn't matter all that much IMHO. What matters is the rotation.

Traded Gray with 2 years of control. Trade Castillo and Mahle with 1.5 years of control. They could have kept those guys and contended last year and this year. Why do you think they'll do anything different with Greene and Lodolo? My guess is Greene after year 4 will be in line for a larger arb award than any of those guys made. They just won't keep them IMO.