Cincinnati Reds Bullpen 2023

[757690]

I take strong issue with the notion that the Reds have “already addressed most of their pitching” with four guys. The days of Warren Spahn pitching 230 innings per year are over. I gave you the numbers earlier, the innings coverage issue is there for this team. It involves starters, relievers, and backups year after year.

It’s more than 4 guys. It’s two top of the rotation starters, a middle of the rotation starter and a closer. Plus a bunch of prospects many close to MLB ready. That is most of their pitching needs for the next few years. That is way more than most rebuilding teams have at the same point of a rebuild.

More is needed, but just fringe pitchers, back of the rotation arms and middle relievers.

[Kc61]

It’s more than 4 guys. It’s two top of the rotation starters, a middle of the rotation starter and a closer. Plus a bunch of prospects many close to MLB ready. That is most of their pitching needs for the next few years. That is way more than most rebuilding teams have at the same point of a rebuild.

More is needed, but just fringe pitchers, back of the rotation arms and middle relievers.

I think you are underestimating pitching needs for 162 games year after year with 5-6 inning starts most of the time. It’s a grind, with inevitable injuries. I don’t agree that the Reds are close to meeting these needs.

[mth123]

It only takes one bad inning from the mound to lose a game. You have a bad inning on offense and go down one two three, it happens all the time. You have 8 other chances to score runs. On the mound, you can get six good innings from your starter, then you bring in some retread reliever and before you know it, the other team has scored 5 times and the game is lost. On this team its going to happen way too often.

Most of the staff is in roles that don't suit them. You have mid to back-end rotation starters as your top 3, you have middle relievers and mop-up guys in the back end of the rotation, you have minor leaguers and retreads in middle relief, you have middle relievers in high leverage spots and closing games. When you are structured like that, you are going to have a lot of bad innings to ruin otherwise well played games. There are so many guys who don't belong and they use so many pitchers in a game these days, I think chances are good we'll see at least one guy come in and blow up every game. Sometimes they'll get him out of there before too much damage and sometimes the offense may pull it out anyway, but far too many times, someone on this staff will lose the game that otherwise could have been won.

[757690]

I think you are underestimating pitching needs for 162 games year after year with 5-6 inning starts most of the time. It’s a grind, with inevitable injuries. I don’t agree that the Reds are close to meeting these needs.

I explained it already.

The Reds have the hardest part covered. Rotation spots 1-3 with two potential aces, and closer. I would also add an setup guy in Sanmartin. All covered for the next 3-5 seasons. That is the part that is expensive and difficult to build. That is the part that requires expending resources of money and prospects to acquire. That is the part that most rebuilding teams do not have at this point. The Reds have that part covered for now and the future.

The innings that we both agree need to be covered, backend rotation spots (which the Reds should have covered with the number of pitching prospects they currently have), and middle relief, are all innings that are the easiest and cheapest to acquire, and this is the part you are ignoring or not getting, they are in constant flux, in every organization. No team, not even the Dodgers and Yankees, know who their middle relievers will be in 2024-2027.

Those spots get filled with failed prospects, fringe and non-prospects, surprises, free agents signings, trades, waiver wire deals, and the like. They are rarely filled with top prospects or guys that team predict will be middle relievers in a few years. No team knows who their middle relievers will be over the next few years. As I said, what will determine the Reds middle relief over the next few years is not who they currently have, but, just like with every other team, with how much they invest in it over the next few years.

If you want to argue that the Reds have not invested in middle relief over the last view years, so it’s unlikely they will in the future, you won’t get any pushback from me. That is a major concern. But that’s different from saying that the Reds don’t have middle relief covered over the next few years because you don’t see them in organization right now. No team sees that.

[TNRED]

I am just going to bring up a strong dose of reality based upon how things go. We are relying heavily on Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft to anchor the top end of the rotation and they should do a fine job. The problem is, that among the three of them, there is a high probability that they will miss 25-30 starts. Not saying that anyone in particular is going to get hurt but that seems to be the average anymore. Who will take basically that full season of a pitcher's starts?

[Kc61]

I explained it already.

The Reds have the hardest part covered. Rotation spots 1-3 with two potential aces, and closer. I would also add an setup guy in Sanmartin. All covered for the next 3-5 seasons. That is the part that is expensive and difficult to build. That is the part that requires expending resources of money and prospects to acquire. That is the part that most rebuilding teams do not have at this point. The Reds have that part covered for now and the future.

The innings that we both agree need to be covered, backend rotation spots (which the Reds should have covered with the number of pitching prospects they currently have), and middle relief, are all innings that are the easiest and cheapest to acquire, and this is the part you are ignoring or not getting, they are in constant flux, in every organization. No team, not even the Dodgers and Yankees, know who their middle relievers will be in 2024-2027.

Those spots get filled with failed prospects, fringe and non-prospects, surprises, free agents signings, trades, waiver wire deals, and the like. They are rarely filled with top prospects or guys that team predict will be middle relievers in a few years. No team knows who their middle relievers will be over the next few years. As I said, what will determine the Reds middle relief over the next few years is not who they currently have, but, just like with every other team, with how much they invest in it over the next few years.

If you want to argue that the Reds have not invested in middle relief over the last view years, so it’s unlikely they will in the future, you won’t get any pushback from me. That is a major concern. But that’s different from saying that the Reds don’t have middle relief covered over the next few years because you don’t see them in organization right now. No team sees that.

The Reds lack more than middle relief. They need another good starter, back-end relievers, middle relievers, and pitching depth. Some are expensive items, some are cheap, all are necessary and all are lacking.

[JCM11]

It remains to be seen if Lodolo, Greene, and Ashcraft are a legit 1-3 in the rotation. Of those 3 I have the most confidence in Lodolo, and Greene should be at worst a solid mid rotation guy with a chance of being a #1. Ashcraft pitched more like a #4 than a #3 last year, but he has room for improvement by increasing his K's. Diaz has a career total of 10 saves, and was very lucky with BAbip last year. It's certainly no guarantee that he's a legit closer at this point.

The less said about the rest of the staff the better. They have a long way to go to be a good MLB pitching staff over the next few years, and if some real money isn't spent on that part of the team I don't see it happening. I think Abbott, Phillips, Petty, and Williamson could all help, but they will need to add from outside the organization. Maybe if they pull off another prospects for veteran SP move it could come together in 2024.

[herbdizzle]

I like the option of piggybacking Cessa, Overton, Williamson and Anderson on 4/5 starters days early in the season. Hopefully you could get 7 innings combined those days. Not an ideal setup but it'd help save the other pen arms for the days of Greene Lodolo and Ashcraft.

[Kc61]

I like the option of piggybacking Cessa, Overton, Williamson and Anderson on 4/5 starters days early in the season. Hopefully you could get 7 innings combined those days. Not an ideal setup but it'd help save the other pen arms for the days of Greene Lodolo and Ashcraft.

If you have 4 pitchers piggybacking, plus 3 regular starters, that leaves room for 6 available relievers.

Not sure Reds would go for that.

It’s feasible but, considering rest days, might make things tight.

[Kinsm]

I like the option of piggybacking Cessa, Overton, Williamson and Anderson on 4/5 starters days early in the season. Hopefully you could get 7 innings combined those days. Not an ideal setup but it'd help save the other pen arms for the days of Greene Lodolo and Ashcraft.

What happens when 1 of G, L, or A gets blown out of a game early? Which will happen at some point. Do you use either of the 2 piggyback relievers you’ve designated essentially as starters 4.0 and 5.0?

In a computer game, might work, real life…not so much.

And I’m not convinced even 2 of the 4 you mentioned should be counted on to go 6 innings of a game combined.

This is going to be a long season with some really ugly bullpen and bor performances.

[MoneyInTheBank]

It only takes one bad inning from the mound to lose a game. You have a bad inning on offense and go down one two three, it happens all the time. You have 8 other chances to score runs. On the mound, you can get six good innings from your starter, then you bring in some retread reliever and before you know it, the other team has scored 5 times and the game is lost. On this team its going to happen way too often.

Most of the staff is in roles that don't suit them. You have mid to back-end rotation starters as your top 3, you have middle relievers and mop-up guys in the back end of the rotation, you have minor leaguers and retreads in middle relief, you have middle relievers in high leverage spots and closing games. When you are structured like that, you are going to have a lot of bad innings to ruin otherwise well played games. There are so many guys who don't belong and they use so many pitchers in a game these days, I think chances are good we'll see at least one guy come in and blow up every game. Sometimes they'll get him out of there before too much damage and sometimes the offense may pull it out anyway, but far too many times, someone on this staff will lose the game that otherwise could have been won.

This is probably true for 2023 but 2023 isn't about what these guys are, it's about projecting forward. If Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are all still mid to back end guys by the end of 2023, this rebuild is, quite frankly, a colossal failure.

If Diaz isn't a high leverage reliever, that's another setback. If 2 or 3 of Williamson, Santillan, Stoudt and Legumina aren't significant contributors in some way by the end of 2023, that's also bad.

If all of these prospects/youngsters fail? You have to seriously question the Reds' plan

[mth123]

This is probably true for 2023 but 2023 isn't about what these guys are, it's about projecting forward. If Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are all still mid to back end guys by the end of 2023, this rebuild is, quite frankly, a colossal failure.

If Diaz isn't a high leverage reliever, that's another setback. If 2 or 3 of Williamson, Santillan, Stoudt and Legumina aren't significant contributors in some way by the end of 2023, that's also bad.

If all of these prospects/youngsters fail? You have to seriously question the Reds' plan

I'm optimistic about Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft, but even if they all three end up and number 3 starters and don't progress beyond that, they will be a huge success. Pithing is about avoiding the weak link that breaks the chain. The bigger problem is all the retreads. As for younger guys, I'm hopeful that Williamson, Santillan and maybe Stoudt can become solid relievers. I'm not high on anyone in the organization, at least AA and above becoming a solid starter beyond the three we already have. They need a lot of guys from the outside.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'm optimistic about Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft, but even if they all three end up and number 3 starters and don't progress beyond that, they will be a huge success. Pithing is about avoiding the weak link that breaks the chain. The bigger problem is all the retreads. As for younger guys, I'm hopeful that Williamson, Santillan and maybe Stoudt can become solid relievers. I'm not high on anyone in the organization, at least AA and above becoming a solid starter beyond the three we already have. They need a lot of guys from the outside.

You may win a decent number of regular season games with a collection of number 3 starters but it will be a very short postseason stay if you make it there. I'm not holding my breath for any significant help from any veteran help outside the organization so, if your vision is accurate, this rebuild is going to take a while.

[mth123]

You may win a decent number of regular season games with a collection of number 3 starters but it will be a very short postseason stay if you make it there. I'm not holding my breath for any significant help from any veteran help outside the organization so, if your vision is accurate, this rebuild is going to take a while.

I think we agree on this.

[Ron Madden]

so far

The bullpen includes righthanded relievers
Alexis Díaz
Buck Farmer
Ian Gibaut
Fernando Cruz
Derek Law
Joel Kuhnel
and lefties
Reiver Sanmartin and Alex Young.