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Thread: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

  1. #31
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I didn't say that numbers don't count, rather they are incomplete. Stoudt was an extremely small sample and because the starts were so short, not really representative of how he'd perform multiple times through a line-up at AAA. A deeper look shows a larger sample where he was really, really bad in AA. I don't see evidence that he's ready to compete for a big-league rotation spot from that. As a matter of fact, the numbers say he should repeat AA.

    In Williamson's case, a deeper look than surface ERA shows poor numbers in walks and baserunners allowed along with a drop in K Rate which are all even worse in AAA, so he didn't really make a successful jump (and his numbers in AA were nothing to write home about). He did limit HRs, so that's a positive sign, but GABP will probably make the HR numbers go up and if he's giving up that many runners, it will be ugly real fast.
    I'm sorry if I misunderstood.

    Your comments of "19 innings proves the same as 0 innings" indicated to me that his 19 innings don't count. This was also a departure from your earlier statement that "after a couple weeks of proving it in AAA" they could get a chance (I'm skeptical that you would find that sample sufficient). It just seems like you are going to hang on to any shred of negativity re: pitching prospects and relegate them to the bullpen until they prove themselves as starters at the MLB level.

    Like I said before, I'm not saying they've earned anything. I'm just pushing back on the notion they are "awful" and/or "turds"
    "The fact that Casali had concussions is irrelevant" ~757690

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  4. #32
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by LeatherPants View Post
    There should be no such thing as winning or losing a job in spring training. The Reds should already know where every single player is going, and who should be next in line due to injuries. Spring training should only be about getting ready for the season.
    Yeah, sure. But like many “ideal world” philosophies, this one doesn’t apply to the Reds. If we had five obvious rotation candidates and three obvious starting outfielders, I’d agree with you. As it is, the jobs are going to go to whomever is the best prepared on Opening Day. ST will go a long way in helping evaluators make those decisions.

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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan9988 View Post
    Yeah, sure. But like many “ideal world” philosophies, this one doesn’t apply to the Reds. If we had five obvious rotation candidates and three obvious starting outfielders, I’d agree with you. As it is, the jobs are going to go to whomever is the best prepared on Opening Day. ST will go a long way in helping evaluators make those decisions.
    The Reds have more holes than most teams, but you would be hard pressed to find any MLB team that goes into spring training that has all 9 position spots and all 5 rotation spots filled, let alone all 26 roster spots. Every team has a few holes, a few spring training battles.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  7. #34
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    This is your daily reminder that were the Spring-Training-means-nothing crowd to have ruled the day, Alexis Diaz-- he of the high K, high BB, near 4.00 ERA in Chattanooga in 2021 and 1.84 ERA, dominant closer, high K, nearly impossible to hit, high BB reliever in Cincinnati in 2022-- would have toiled away in Louisville for half a season.

    Sometimes, prospects "get it." Sometimes, that's not evident in the numbers during the season.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 02-24-2023 at 12:02 PM.

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  9. #35
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    I'm sorry if I misunderstood.

    Your comments of "19 innings proves the same as 0 innings" indicated to me that his 19 innings don't count. This was also a departure from your earlier statement that "after a couple weeks of proving it in AAA" they could get a chance (I'm skeptical that you would find that sample sufficient). It just seems like you are going to hang on to any shred of negativity re: pitching prospects and relegate them to the bullpen until they prove themselves as starters at the MLB level.

    Like I said before, I'm not saying they've earned anything. I'm just pushing back on the notion they are "awful" and/or "turds"
    Small samples are meaningless. I give no weight to the 19 innings he pitched in AAA. And since they were spread over 6 starts, they are even more meaningless and not representative of how a typical start would go.

    They were awful last year and pitched like turds IMO. People seem to be anointing them for this year's rotation. I don't think they are write-offs, but IMO they aren't ready and spring training performance is even more meaningless than small samples. I don't believe in anything being decided by how a guy looks in Spring Training. If a guy didn't set himself up by how he performed in the minors the year before, I don't think he should even be considered for the big league roster the following spring. If he goes down and performs under real game conditions for a 6 to 8 week stretch in AAA, then its time for a look,
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  10. #36
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    This is your daily reminder that were the Spring-Training-means-nothing crowd to have ruled the day, Alexis Diaz-- he of the high K, high BB, near 4.00 ERA in Chattanooga in 2021 and 1.84 ERA, dominant closer, high K, nearly impossible to hit, high BB reliever in Cincinnati in 2022-- would have toiled away in Louisville for half a season.

    Sometimes, prospects "get it." Sometimes, that's not evident in the numbers during the season.
    And most of the time prospects who people say "get it" end up failing miserably. Exceptions don't prove the rule.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  11. #37
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Small samples in ST with regard to stats are meaningless.

    If young players show up to ST and look like different players (Jonathan India 2021, Alexis Diaz 2022, etc) that is a different animal than just filling up a stats page. This is the same reason you see players batting .400 get released or sent down during ST. They are putting up numbers but the coaching staff thinks/knows it is a mirage. It is entirely possible a player like Williamson shows up to spring training and looks like he figured something out. If Williamson breaks camp with a rotation spot it is not going to be because of his spring numbers, it is going to be because Derek Johnson thinks he is ready.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    And most of the time prospects who people say "get it" end up failing miserably. Exceptions don't prove the rule.
    Yeah, no crap, major league baseball is extremely hard to succeed at.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  13. #38
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Small samples are meaningless. I give no weight to the 19 innings he pitched in AAA. And since they were spread over 6 starts, they are even more meaningless and not representative of how a typical start would go.

    They were awful last year and pitched like turds IMO. People seem to be anointing them for this year's rotation. I don't think they are write-offs, but IMO they aren't ready and spring training performance is even more meaningless than small samples. I don't believe in anything being decided by how a guy looks in Spring Training. If a guy didn't set himself up by how he performed in the minors the year before, I don't think he should even be considered for the big league roster the following spring. If he goes down and performs under real game conditions for a 6 to 8 week stretch in AAA, then its time for a look,
    If small samples are meaningless then your declarations of "turdy" and "awful" are false, by definition

    I can get on board with wanting them to get more AAA time, I'm just not there that they were just terrible last season. Stoudt's first 2 AAA starts were rough but did a nice job after that. He had some real ups and downs at AA. No doubt about that. Williamson was just okay at AAA, IMO. Are they ready for a spot in a MLB rotation? I tend to think not but, while it's not everything, spring training is a data point. If they do very well, I wouldn't oppose it.
    "The fact that Casali had concussions is irrelevant" ~757690

  14. #39
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Also had a 47% fly ball rate and a very low 33% GB rate. Wmson’s HR avoidance was the result of a (lucky?) 5% HR/FB rate. Hard to see him sustaining that rate at GABP. Notably, his 4.90 FIP at AAA jumped to 6.29 xFIP when one neutralizes for an average HR/FB rate.

    I expect his AAA season was just a bump in the road, but those fly ball and GB rates at GABP are not helpful, especially with a lowish K rate.
    Williamson has a sky high IFFB% that seems to be sticking. That does lessen the impact a bit.
    "The fact that Casali had concussions is irrelevant" ~757690

  15. #40
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    If small samples are meaningless then your declarations of "turdy" and "awful" are false, by definition

    I can get on board with wanting them to get more AAA time, I'm just not there that they were just terrible last season. Stoudt's first 2 AAA starts were rough but did a nice job after that. He had some real ups and downs at AA. No doubt about that. Williamson was just okay at AAA, IMO. Are they ready for a spot in a MLB rotation? I tend to think not but, while it's not everything, spring training is a data point. If they do very well, I wouldn't oppose it.
    But my declaration wasn't based on the small 19 inning sample. That was you cherry picking. My declaration was on the 18 starts he had before the reds traded for him with an ERA over 5 in AA. Williamson threw 122 not very good innings last year.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  16. #41
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    And most of the time prospects who people say "get it" end up failing miserably. Exceptions don't prove the rule.
    Most?

    Yeah, I don't think you can say that, mth-- if only because the majority of prospects end up failing miserably.

    You're assuming that other prospects who spend a few months in AAA or AA are more successful. I'm fairly certain that's not the case.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Small samples are meaningless.
    I don't think you can say this.

    They can be rife with high error bars, but they're not meaningless.

    In some respects, they're meaningful.

  17. #42
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post

    In some respects, they're meaningful.
    This has been the root of most of the disagreements you and I have had over the years. I think for a sample to mean anything, it needs to be two things:

    Large enough to offset a couple of outlying events from skewing the numbers and,
    Random enough to not skew the numbers through sample bias.

    19 innings over six starts that average 3 innings each are neither of those things. I throw that out and revert to his larger body of work with was an ERA over 5 in 18 starts. I did like Stoudt's K/BB ratio at Arkansas, but he gave up 13 HR in 87 innings. His FIP wa still 4.75 and xFIP 4.72. Those kinds of numbers don't really warrant a promotion to AAA let alone a shot at the big leagues.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  18. #43
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    But my declaration wasn't based on the small 19 inning sample. That was you cherry picking. My declaration was on the 18 starts he had before the reds traded for him with an ERA over 5 in AA. Williamson threw 122 not very good innings last year.
    Takes one to know one I guess. Isn't reverting back to whatever sample fits your narrative the very definition of cherry picking?
    "The fact that Casali had concussions is irrelevant" ~757690

  19. #44
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Takes one to know one I guess. Isn't reverting back to whatever sample fits your narrative the very definition of cherry picking?
    18 starts vs. 19 innings. If you can't see that difference, we're done here.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  20. #45
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    Re: Reds See Plenty Of Potential In New Outfielder Will Benson

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    18 starts vs. 19 innings. If you can't see that difference, we're done here.
    I'm not saying those 19 innings are the only ones that should count. THAT is the difference here. You are throwing out his AA start with the Reds (5 innings) and all of his AAA starts (19 innings) in favor of his 87 innings in AA with Seattle. That is over 20% of his innings pitched 2022 that you are dismissing under the guise of "small sample size". I think that's wrong. If that makes you done here, I'm perfectly fine leaving it here considering we are that fundamentally different on the topic of sample sizes.
    "The fact that Casali had concussions is irrelevant" ~757690


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