Senzel heads into pivotal '23 with new stance, mindset

[Kingspoint]

I figure Senzel hits well with RISP because he’s been a groundball hitter historically. Although I’ll note his GB% is down to 36.2% in 2023 from his career rate of 44.7%.

He also seems pretty good at being able to direct where a ball is going to be hit better than others, thus his lower rate of speed when the bat hits the ball. He's swinging with more of a direct purpose of placing the ball into an open space.

[TRF]

He also seems pretty good at being able to direct where a ball is going to be hit better than others, thus his lower rate of speed when the bat hits the ball. He's swinging with more of a direct purpose of placing the ball into an open space.

You basically are making up a narrative about him because you want him to be that guy. He's not. Maybe he started last year? No. He didn't because he was terrible last year against both types of pitching.

In April he was bad against RHP and great against LHP. In May, he was actually worse against RHP and again, GREAT against LHP.

So everything you just stated was pure fantasy for 3/4 of his PA's. He's at best the weak side of a platoon player that cannot stay on the field. He's been on the IL twice this year already. But sure, directing the ball or something.

[Kingspoint]

5th on the team in Wins-Above-Average.

5th on the team in Wins-Above-Replacement.

4th on the team in Offensive-Runs-Above-Replacement.

3rd on the team in Win-Probability-Added.

3rd on the team in Base-Outs-Runs-Added.

4th on the team in Power/Speed Number. (The harmonic mean of HR and SB. To do well, you need a lot of both. Developed by Bill James.)

2nd on the team in Fewest-At-Bats-Per-RBI.

3rd on the team in WPA Clutch. (The difference between context-dependent WPA and the context-neutral WPA.)

With Runners-In-Scoring-Position, he's hitting .357/.431/.476/.908 That's 2nd on the team in Average and On-Base-Percentage. He knocks runners in and keeps rallies going. (Matt McClain has ridiculous numbers of .409/.458/.636/1.095....it wasn't a coincidence that he had the game-winning hit in today's game. He'll continue to excel in clutch situations.)

[Kingspoint]

You basically are making up a narrative about him because you want him to be that guy.

Wrong again. Try another bingo card.

I wanted him DFA'd all of last season because I felt he was stubborn and not willing to make adjustments, until he saw the success of Friedl and another RED who both made adjustments that showed success. It took a few weeks for him to make the adjustments, but after that, he began to see the results....then he got injured again, so that short time of trial-and-error followed by success got shelved for the rest of the regular season. He had to start all over again. Naturally, he struggled finding that "change" and adjustment this season, but once he did, good results started happening making him a 100% different player than he was at any time 12 months ago and beyond.

Nick Senzel has finally figured it out. I don't look at the back of baseball cards like you and come up with results based on events in the past that have nothing whatsoever to do with the present or the future. I take each player for what he is in real-time, looking into their brains and heart as much as into their physical skills. Baseball has always been a game about adjustments. Those who can master that find success and stick around. Those who can't find their ceiling and get themselves replaced sooner than they should have been. You treat all of this like it doesn't exist and that these players are machines. You could not be more wrong about a baseball player when you look at them like this.

[TRF]

Wrong again. Try another bingo card.

I wanted him DFA'd all of last season because I felt he was stubborn and not willing to make adjustments, until he saw the success of Friedl and another RED who both made adjustments that showed success. It took a few weeks for him to make the adjustments, but after that, he began to see the results....then he got injured again, so that short time of trial-and-error followed by success got shelved for the rest of the regular season. He had to start all over again. Naturally, he struggled finding that "change" and adjustment this season, but once he did, good results started happening making him a 100% different player than he was at any time 12 months ago and beyond.

Nick Senzel has finally figured it out. I don't look at the back of baseball cards like you and come up with results based on events in the past that have nothing whatsoever to do with the present or the future. I take each player for what he is in real-time, looking into their brains and heart as much as into their physical skills. Baseball has always been a game about adjustments. Those who can master that find success and stick around. Those who can't find their ceiling and get themselves replaced sooner than they should have been. You treat all of this like it doesn't exist and that these players are machines. You could not be more wrong about a baseball player when you look at them like this.

yawn. 45 years of watching baseball and I get hit with this nonsense. A quick search on my username and the word "context" will tell you how wrong your take is here.

He can't hit RHP. He can't stay healthy. He has no permanent position. He's a bad OF. Dispute any of that with actual facts instead of your imagined "directing the baseball" take, and I'll listen. Tell me how any of that is back of the baseball card stuff. Tony Gwynn could direct a baseball. Senzel is not Gwynn.

I pay for MLB.TV, I see every game. Vs RHP, he's Billy Hamilton minus the SB's and elite defense. Vs LHP in his career, he's ok. Not a star, but solid. This year? Spectacular, and that reinforces the platoon idea. Because whatever imagined progress he made at age 28, it has only applied to LHP in very small samples.

Look, I've been wrong about players lots of times. Been right too. I talked up Aquino and Schebler because I thought just given some regular PT... But, I'm not wrong here. Senzel on the IL is addition by subtraction, in that it allows EDLC a spot he's not giving up. Senzel will be back, probably immediately when his IL stint is up, but so will Friedl. He'll take Hopkins spot, Friedl will likely take Barrero, Benson or Fairchild, probably Benson. But he's not starting in CF over Friedl, and he's not starting over Steer in LF. Bell seems to be in love with Newman, so that is 1B. They aren't DH'ing Elly, so that leaves 1B or DH, and even then the footsteps are clear. CES is coming. Votto is coming.

[Sea Ray]

Wrong again. Try another bingo card.

I wanted him DFA'd all of last season because I felt he was stubborn and not willing to make adjustments, until he saw the success of Friedl and another RED who both made adjustments that showed success. It took a few weeks for him to make the adjustments, but after that, he began to see the results....then he got injured again, so that short time of trial-and-error followed by success got shelved for the rest of the regular season. He had to start all over again. Naturally, he struggled finding that "change" and adjustment this season, but once he did, good results started happening making him a 100% different player than he was at any time 12 months ago and beyond.

Nick Senzel has finally figured it out. I don't look at the back of baseball cards like you and come up with results based on events in the past that have nothing whatsoever to do with the present or the future. I take each player for what he is in real-time, looking into their brains and heart as much as into their physical skills. Baseball has always been a game about adjustments. Those who can master that find success and stick around. Those who can't find their ceiling and get themselves replaced sooner than they should have been. You treat all of this like it doesn't exist and that these players are machines. You could not be more wrong about a baseball player when you look at them like this.

I think it's too soon to say Senzel has figured it out and it's too soon to conclude that he can stay healthy. I will say that he's a contributing member of the team. As to what to do with him going forward, it's gotta be a combination of team needs, trade value and cost. In my mind the next 2 guys to jettison are Myers and Newman. We now have 3 guys who can play SS (Barerro, Elly and McLain) and CES should definitely be here instead of Newman at 1B. As for Myers, has anyone missed him? Anyone?

[GAC]

There's a lot of fodder on this team only while awaiting the prospects. They will, or should be, jettisoned at some point. We all know why the Newmans and Myers are here.

I'm glad Nick's playing well, and has been able to stay on the field. But his future is elsewhere. His numbers are still pretty pedestrian offensively. He's making $2M via arb. If he has a "decent" season, better then prior, arb is going to give him a raise. I don't see the Reds paying that for a "super-sub". Not when they have versatility at a cheaper price.

JMO, but Nick won't be a Red in '24.

[Kc61]

Putting Senzel aside for a minute, I don’t see why everyone’s in a hurry to dump Newman. For what, a third tier prospect?

Newman seems like an ideal backup middle infielder. He can also play corner IF. He’s contributed some offensively. Seems to have a good attitude and fits in well with the ballclub.

He’s the kind of backup Reds are constantly seeking before each season. Not sure the advantage of dumping him.

[CySeymour]

Putting Senzel aside for a minute, I don’t see why everyone’s in a hurry to dump Newman. For what, a third tier prospect?

Newman seems like an ideal backup middle infielder. He can also play corner IF. He’s contributed some offensively. Seems to have a good attitude and fits in well with the ballclub.

He’s the kind of backup Reds are constantly seeking before each season. Not sure the advantage of dumping him.

I think the problem is Bell, like just about every manager in the history of baseball, feels compelled to play his vets more than they really need to be played. Now, with Senzel, Friedl and Votto all out I can see why, but the issue will be once CES comes up and Friedl comes back how much he'll continue to play.

[Kc61]

I think the problem is Bell, like just about every manager in the history of baseball, feels compelled to play his vets more than they really need to be played. Now, with Senzel, Friedl and Votto all out I can see why, but the issue will be once CES comes up and Friedl comes back how much he'll continue to play.

Newman would be a middle infield backup.

He’ll play when the shortstop or second baseman is unavailable.

Particularly at short, that’s an important player to have.

[RED VAN HOT]

Putting Senzel aside for a minute, I don’t see why everyone’s in a hurry to dump Newman. For what, a third tier prospect?

Newman seems like an ideal backup middle infielder. He can also play corner IF. He’s contributed some offensively. Seems to have a good attitude and fits in well with the ballclub.

He’s the kind of backup Reds are constantly seeking before each season. Not sure the advantage of dumping him.

I'm not arguing Newman's value, but the Reds need to trade an infielder. Newman's value as infield depth will likely return more than a third level prospect. Alternatively, they could trade Barrero, but he is likely to bring back less in trade. Besides, Barrero has an option remaining and the Reds have shown a preference for retaining younger players.

[Kc61]

I'm not arguing Newman's value, but the Reds need to trade an infielder. Newman's value as infield depth will likely return more than a third level prospect. Alternatively, they could trade Barrero, but he is likely to bring back less in trade. Besides, Barrero has an option remaining and the Reds have shown a preference for retaining younger players.

If Barrero has an option they should use it. Newman is a better shortstop and makes much more sense as a backup IF.

I have the old fashioned view that you keep the better player if he fits a need, which Newman does.

[CySeymour]

Newman would be a middle infield backup.

He’ll play when the shortstop or second baseman is unavailable.

Particularly at short, that’s an important player to have.

In our world view, yes, he would be a backup...but it's David Bell's view that counts.

[GAC]

Putting Senzel aside for a minute, I don’t see why everyone’s in a hurry to dump Newman. For what, a third tier prospect?

Newman seems like an ideal backup middle infielder. He can also play corner IF. He’s contributed some offensively. Seems to have a good attitude and fits in well with the ballclub.

He’s the kind of backup Reds are constantly seeking before each season. Not sure the advantage of dumping him.

I certainly see your logic my friend. He's only making 2.6M. But we have so much infield versatility with our youth, I don't see the need to retain him. Not for a guy with a career .664 OPS. And as someone mentioned earlier - Bell likes to play these vets more then they should.

Barrero needs to be optioned, and I think will at some point this season. JMO, but I don't see this kid learning to hit at this level.

[Kc61]

I certainly see your logic my friend. He's only making 2.6M. But we have so much infield versatility with our youth, I don't see the need to retain him. Not for a guy with a career .664 OPS. And as someone mentioned earlier - Bell likes to play these vets more then they should.

Barrero needs to be optioned, and I think will at some point this season. JMO, but I don't see this kid learning to hit at this level.

If Reds have a surplus of young talent in the infield, they should trade it. If a Steer, or a Marte, doesn’t have a full time position, he should be traded for value, not used as a backup.

Players like Newman are the backups. That’s how I see it anyway.