Make Your 2023 Cincinnati Reds' Win Total Prediction

[pedro]

Bell gets Manager-of-the-Year for getting 76 wins out of this group.

I think there are ways this season could play out where 76 wins would be encouraging.

If they do this while onboarding some solid young multi year pieces instead of juicing the likes of Brandon Drury and Tommy Pham then I’ll consider it a hood season.

[topsyt]

65 wins

[Kc61]

Went with 64 and under. Wanted to go with 65-67, but that's such a tight range. As much as things went wrong last year to get them to 62 wins...they didn't get any better that I see. No Castillo, mahle, Drury, naquin, farmer. Those were a lot of the brighter spots last year...

Agree that Reds veteran group in 2023 is not as good as last year. Still, I guessed a slightly better record, 95 losses rather than 100, due to expected better health. Which admittedly is just a hope.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Positionally, C, 1B, DH, and 2B should all be much improved. 3B and RF are likely to be better too.

[Kc61]

Positionally, C, 1B, DH, and 2B should all be much improved. 3B and RF are likely to be better too.

In terms of the veteran team - 33 starts by Castillo and Mahle, gone. Drury’s .855 OPS in 385 PAs, gone. Farmer’s 583 PAs of decent play, gone. Naquin LHH bench player at .749 OPS, gone (current team lacks LHH).

One can project better seasons from Votto, India, Stephenson, but that’s health, we’ll see.

Myers is the major veteran hitting addition and he hit .713 OPS last year.

[757690]

I picked 72 wins. I see this team about the same as last years, but with fewer sucky players. So even if they have injuries and bad luck, they at least now have replacement level players available to step in. Last year, when someone got hurt, it meant a negative WAR player stepping in.

In other words, similar ceiling, but a higher floor.

[Falls City Beer]

71 wins

[RichRed]

77 wins, a prediction based more on irrational hope than empirical data. Obviously.

[Bourgeois Zee]

In terms of the veteran team - 33 starts by Castillo and Mahle, gone. Drury’s .855 OPS in 385 PAs, gone. Farmer’s 583 PAs of decent play, gone. Naquin LHH bench player at .749 OPS, gone (current team lacks LHH).

One can project better seasons from Votto, India, Stephenson, but that’s health, we’ll see.

Myers is the major veteran hitting addition and he hit .713 OPS last year.

Here's where I'm at:

- In the rotation, Castillo, Minor, and Mahle, amongst them, put up 52 starts, just under 300 IP, and an ERA of 4.51. Will the combination of Ashcraft, Cessa (or Williamson), and Weaver be able to match that?

- Drury, Moustakas, Steer, and the flotsam that also played the 3B position last year put up 1.8 fWAR total. Can Steer (and company) match that?

- Naquin and the other Red RF were more than 20 runs below league average offensively. They earned 1.1 fWAR. Can Myers match that?

- Farmer was pretty solid at SS-- 1.4 fWAR and a 92 wRC+. Barrero undid nearly all of it in less than 200 PAs. (It's hard to be that bad as a major league player. It's hard to fathom how bad that really is, honestly.) Newman put up nearly identical offensive and fWAR numbers to Farmer, fwiw. And Barrero... remains. Can Newman and 2023 Barrero improve on those numbers?

Fwiw, my answers to the questions, in order, are maybe, maybe, probably, and maybe.

But we know the backup catchers are going to be much, much better.
And we suspect India will be better too.
And we think Stephenson will play more than 50 games.
And we think that the combination of Stephenson, Myers, and a healthy Votto will be better than what was out there last year.
We also think Greene and Lodolo will pitch more and put up better numbers. Perhaps far better numbers.

[mth123]

Here is how I see it:

If we assume Greene and Lodolo can pitch their allotted 32 starts each, that is 64 games. I'm optimistic that those guys will pitch well, but the record in those games will be around .500. I think they'll deserve better, but there will be games when the Reds don't score any runs and even more when some career minor leaguer comes in the game and coughs it up in the 6th or 7th inning. Lets call that 33 Wins. 33 and 31 in the Greene and Lodolo games a .516 Winning percentage.

If we assume Ashcraft makes another 32 starts, those games probably end up several games below .500. He'll have all the same obstacles that Greene and Lodolo will face with an iffy bullpen and a line-up with a number of black holes. He'll pitch competently but he won't pitch as well as Greene and Lodolo. Let's call that 13 wins, a .406 winning percentage in games he starts. That gets us to 46.

The other 64 games will be started by guys who are awful and who will also have the same line-up and bullpen issues when they start. I'm expecting something like 20 and 44 in those games, a .312 Winning percentage. That gets me to my prediction of 66 Wins.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Here is how I see it:

If we assume Greene and Lodolo can pitch their allotted 32 starts each, that is 64 games. I'm optimistic that those guys will pitch well, but the record in those games will be around .500. I think they'll deserve better, but there will be games when the Reds don't score any runs and even more when some career minor leaguer comes in the game and coughs it up in the 6th or 7th inning. Lets call that 33 Wins. 33 and 31 in the Greene and Lodolo games a .516 Winning percentage.

If we assume Ashcraft makes another 32 starts, those games probably end up several games below .500. He'll have all the same obstacles that Greene and Lodolo will face with an iffy bullpen and a line-up with a number of black holes. He'll pitch competently but he won't pitch as well as Greene and Lodolo. Let's call that 13 wins, a .406 winning percentage in games he starts. That gets us to 46.

The other 64 games will be started by guys who are awful and who will also have the same line-up and bullpen issues when they start. I'm expecting something like 20 and 44 in those games, a .312 Winning percentage. That gets me to my prediction of 66 Wins.

Your math is remarkably faulty. A league average starter-- as Ashcraft profiles to be-- is right around a .500 guy, not .400. Last year, he was at .455. For him to be a .406 W/L guy, he'd have to take a massive step backward in development and the bullpen would have to blow a number of games. That's unlikely. 20-44 and a .312 winning percentage is also remarkably unlikely. They'd have to own a staff-wide ERA higher than 5.75 for that to happen. Last year's mix of flotsam "only" had an ERA of 4.86, fwiw.

[mth123]

Your math is remarkably faulty. A league average starter-- as Ashcraft profiles to be-- is right around a .500 guy, not .400. Last year, he was at .455. For him to be a .406 W/L guy, he'd have to take a massive step backward in development and the bullpen would have to blow a number of games. That's unlikely. 20-44 and a .312 winning percentage is also remarkably unlikely. They'd have to own a staff-wide ERA higher than 5.75 for that to happen. Last year's mix of flotsam "only" had an ERA of 4.86, fwiw.

You may be right about Ashcraft. The team went 10 and 9 in his starts. If I underestimated, I think it may be there. I just think this bullpen is awful. I expect Diaz to still be solid, but significantly worse than last year. SanMartin and Farmer probably aren't as good as last year. Santillan could be the wildcard that offsets that, but its far from a sure thing. The rest of those names make me cringe. Too many late 20s, early 30s never were types will be getting important innings. There is a reason guys are still minor leaguers at age 28 or 29. I expect a lot of games lost where Greene, Lodolo or Ashcraft exit a close game in the 6th or 7th inning and the final score ends up with the Reds losing.

I think expecting the team to win 20 games out of starts by Luke Weaver and whichever other ham and egger they run out there is optimistic.

[Bourgeois Zee]

You may be right about Ashcraft. The team went 10 and 9 in his starts. If I underestimated, I think it may be there. I just think this bullpen is awful. I expect Diaz to still be solid, but significantly worse than last year. SanMartin and Farmer probably aren't as good as last year. Santillan could be the wildcard that offsets that, but its far from a sure thing. The rest of those names make me cringe. Too many late 20s, early 30s never were types will be getting important innings. There is a reason guys are still minor leaguers at age 28 or 29. I expect a lot of games lost where Greene, Lodolo or Ashcraft exit a close game in the 6th or 7th inning and the final score ends up with the Reds losing.

I think expecting the team to win 20 games out of starts by Luke Weaver and whichever other ham and egger they run out there is optimistic.

Maybe you're right. I see this year's pen as fundamentally better than last year's-- the additions of Young, a healthy Sims, semi-healthy Santillan, and half a season of Antone take the place of a lot of replacement level innings. They also have some interesting young arms that could be a real help in the pen.

[mth123]

Maybe you're right. I see this year's pen as fundamentally better than last year's-- the additions of Young, a healthy Sims, semi-healthy Santillan, and half a season of Antone take the place of a lot of replacement level innings. They also have some interesting young arms that could be a real help in the pen.

I'm not expecting much from Antone. I'm guessing he'll be perpetually on the comeback trail with some problem developing about when he's a week or two away. I've never been convinced about Sims. Had a great year in the Covid season, when everything was an outlier. Haven't seen much out of him otherwise. We'll see about Santillan. I have some hope for him, but he's far from proven.

If they'd sign a number 3 or so caliber starter there would be a ripple effect through the entire staff. With the rotation mostly in place, they could use guys like Stoudt and Williamson as late inning relievers instead of relying on 30 year old minor leaguers. That would help the team nearly every day, not just the days when the new guy pitches. But since they didn't do that. they'll be starting guys who can't go through a line-up multiple times and the bullpen will be filled with career minor leaguers who blow it day after day. Pushing three or four negatives off the staff as well as adding a positive or two could make a 10 game (or more) swing in the won loss record. I just see the back end of teh rotation always digging a hole and the retread filled bullpen blowing it a high percentage of the time on the other days. The line-up has a lot of no names, but I think they'll be serviceable. Its the pitching that will be this team's Achilles heel even with 3 starters who I think have a chance to be pretty decent.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Its the pitching that will be this team's Achilles heel even with 3 starters who I think have a chance to be pretty decent.

The pitching has three really good starters and a really good relief arm, plus two or three more high upside arms.

I don't see that offensively.