98 or More (Over .600 W%)
95-97
92-94
89-91
86-88
83-85
80-82 (.500 W%)
77-79
74-76
71-73
68-70
65-67
64 or Less (Under .400 W%)
I see three pretty decent starters and one good reliever who isn't as good as his 2022 stats say. The rest are kind of icky. Collectively, I see a terrible staff. The offense doesn't have anyone as good as Greene or Lodolo are as pitchers, but they don't have the gawd-awful dreck who we'll be seeing in the 6th and 7th every night. Well, except for Nick Senzel.Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
69. They’re pretty bad but not 100 losses bad.
What’s the return on that bet?
If everything goes okay for them, the frontline players stay healthy, 75 wins or so is probably a ceiling - the 4th/5th starters and bullpen will still keep them from reaching .500 (no one should expect anyone to be posting 180 IP).
If they lose one of Lodolo or Greene for an extended period and/or the offense deals with a few big injuries and have to replace them with a 6 ERA AAAA players or non big league ready prospects, 69 wins or so.
If they lose both of those guys for a long period and/or the offense just completely falters, 63 wins or so.
I'm voting 69 wins - which I think is actually a little optimistic at this point; injuries are going to happen - they always do.
Wonderful Monds (03-04-2023)
25% of the team will be injured or has to be limited by innings. That's just the reality. Assuming that, then you're saying that they are going to be in the mid-60's, and looking towards a possible Top-4 pick in the 2024 draft.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
74 wins. Trying to stay positive about this team. I like their chemistry and hope they play with a chip on their shoulder.
I think Votto, Greene and Lodolo beat projections, and in the second half we’ll begin seeing additions (from the farm) rather than a sell-off.
HokieRed (03-05-2023)
The additions from the farm-- Ricky Karcher for sure, CES, Williamson, Siani, Stoudt, McLain, less chances of EDLC, Marte, Abbott, Boyle, and Phillips-- will go a long way toward the Reds gaining respectability next season, but I'm not sure they're ready for prime time. If they come up in the second half, I'm not sure they'll improve the wins and losses.
Wonderful Monds (03-04-2023)
70. Positive - the belief that they won't have as many injuries as last year and the big 3 starting pitchers will be a bit more consistent, negative- they don't play the Pirates and Cubs as many times this year.
Where we gonna go?
This is maybe a little counterintuitive, but I feel like a schedule that includes more of the big parks in the East and some in the West might actually sort of benefit our ragtag pitching staff, at least in terms of home runs surrendered. But maybe not. Hard to say.
Last edited by Falls City Beer; 03-07-2023 at 04:29 PM.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Revering4Blue (03-10-2023)
96 wins. 4 rookies in the everyday lineup, 1 rookie in the rotation. All vie for ROY. Votto, Comeback Player of the Year.
Put every prediction in a box, seal it, and it becomes Schrodinger's predictions. I then have the luxury of being right and wrong at the same time. As today is March 7, I declare my prediction as fact until it ain't.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
77-79. Of course with this teams terrible history of repeated injuries it will be 100 losses.
70 wins. Heading in the right direction but need time to get things clicking...
"I don't want to embarrass any other catcher by comparing him to Johnny Bench."
Sparky Anderson
72-90 record this year
Last year I was foolishly optimistic and guessed 75 wins. Despite being taught a brutal lesson last year, i still have to remain optimistic and predict 70 wins this season.
Always Red (03-15-2023)
I went 72. A lot depends on pitcher health.
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