2023 MLB News and Notes

[mth123]

I believe you have the Reds as a 68 win team this year. That means you think Castillo is at least 14 win player.

I think Castillo would pitch 180 to 200 or so innings that would normally go to guys with a 6+ ERA. He's not a 14 win player, but he'd probably replace guys who are huge negative win players. He'd effect days even when he isn't pitching. The bullpen would be in better order and they could use their better relievers for more of the meaningful relief innings instead of turning to the mop-up types . If he were to start, Cessa could stay in relief and some disaster would be kicked off the roster.

If Castillo makes 32 starts and the Reds can win 60% of them, that's 19 wins as opposed to maybe 9 or 10 wins if Cessa made those starts. Cessa in the bullpen would replace some huge negative. The WAR calculation doesn't capture pitchers very well. It only takes one bad inning to lose a game, but that one bad inning wouldn't count as a negative 1 WAR. Reduce the number of bad innings, reduce the number of losses.

[757690]

I think Castillo would pitch 180 to 200 or so innings that would normally go to guys with a 6+ ERA. He's not a 14 win player, but he'd probably replace guys who are huge negative win players. He'd effect days even when he isn't pitching. The bullpen would be in better order and they could use their better relievers for more of the meaningful relief innings instead of turning to the mop-up types . If he were to start, Cessa could stay in relief and some disaster would be kicked off the roster.

If Castillo makes 32 starts and the Reds can win 60% of them, that's 19 wins as opposed to maybe 9 or 10 wins if Cessa made those starts. Cessa in the bullpen would replace some huge negative. The WAR calculation doesn't capture pitchers very well. It only takes one bad inning to lose a game, but that one bad inning wouldn't count as a negative 1 WAR. Reduce the number of bad innings, reduce the number of losses.

During his career as a Red, the Reds have won less than 50% of the games he has started. Last year was the best they have ever done with Castillo starting and it was 53%. When the Reds were above .500 in 2020 and 2021, the Reds won 35% of the games Castillo started.

If Castillo repeats that, and is healthy for 30 starts, that’s 16 wins. And if Cessa is as bad a starter as you say, that adds only 6 wins. That are huge “ifs”. I would bet heavily that none of those things happen.

[mth123]

During his career as a Red, the Reds have won less than 50% of the games he has started. Last year was the best they have ever done with Castillo starting and it was 53%. When the Reds were above .500 in 2020 and 2021, the Reds won 35% of the games Castillo started.

If Castillo repeats that, and is healthy for 30 starts, that’s 16 wins. And if Cessa is as bad a starter as you say, that adds only 6 wins. That are huge “ifs”. I would bet heavily that none of those things happen.

The Reds will be lucky to win 30% of the games started by the 4th and 5th starters this year and the effect those kids of starts have on the bullpen.

Last year, a 100 loss team won 8 out of Castillo's 14 starts. 57+ percent. Over 32 starts, that would be 18.24 Wins. I rounded up to 19. Sue me.

The point is, WAR is no reflection on a starting pitcher's (or a terrible reliever's) impact on a team's won/loss record.

[757690]

The Reds will be lucky to win 30% of the games started by the 4th and 5th starters this year and the effect those kids of starts have on the bullpen.

Last year, a 100 loss team won 8 out of Castillo's 14 starts. 57+ percent. Over 32 starts, that would be 18.24 Wins. I rounded up to 19. Sue me.

The point is, WAR is no reflection on a starting pitcher's (or a terrible reliever's) impact on a team's won/loss record.

Even if what you say is true, and I don’t agree with any of it, that still doesn’t come close to adding up to 14 wins. It would add 8 wins going from Cessa to Castillo, which means adding Cessa to the pen, would need to add 6 wins.

I agree WAR isn’t exact, but it’s not off by the extreme magnitude you are claiming.

I would say that the odds of Castillo getting hurt again is higher than of anything you’ve predicted happening, which is why I am glad that the Reds didn’t sign Castillo long term. I would much rather have the player the Reds acquired over the next 5 seasons than an age 30-35 Castillo, and that doesn’t even include the $108M the Reds saved, because most of that would have gone into Phil’s pocket.

[JCM11]

Castillio's contract is a bargain and the Reds would be a far better team with him in the rotation. It's a disgrace that they didn't add a solid veteran SP to help Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft out. The more we see of the rest of the staff this ST makes it clearer that those 3 are going to have to carry the whole staff. It's really unfair to ask 3 second year pitchers to do that. If the Reds can't pay a top 10 caliber SP 20 million per year then they will never compete again.

[Kinsm]

Castillio's contract is a bargain and the Reds would be a far better team with him in the rotation. It's a disgrace that they didn't add a solid veteran SP to help Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft out. The more we see of the rest of the staff this ST makes it clearer that those 3 are going to have to carry the whole staff. It's really unfair to ask 3 second year pitchers to do that. If the Reds can't pay a top 10 caliber SP 20 million per year then they will never compete again.

According to Castillo’s comments yesterday. The Reds and his agent talked prior to the trade about an extension and we’re not close. Have to assume whatever figures discussed had to at least be close to what he agreed with SEA for. If so, just sad that the Reds couldn’t afford that.

[757690]

Castillio's contract is a bargain and the Reds would be a far better team with him in the rotation. It's a disgrace that they didn't add a solid veteran SP to help Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft out. The more we see of the rest of the staff this ST makes it clearer that those 3 are going to have to carry the whole staff. It's really unfair to ask 3 second year pitchers to do that. If the Reds can't pay a top 10 caliber SP 20 million per year then they will never compete again.

Castillo’s contract is definitely a bargain in today’s market. However, the history of long term contracts to pitchers over 30 is rather terrible. There are far more Homer Bailey’s and David Price’s than Max Scherzer’s.

Mid market teams like the Reds, even if they were to have payrolls over $150M every year, need to stay away from such contracts. They need to build pitching from within and add veterans on short term deals.

Again, I would bet heavily that the players the Reds got for Castillo help the Reds over the next 5 years, more than just Castillo himself. That is the most important calculation that needs to be made in determining if the Reds should have signed Castillo to a $108M, five year deal.

[Ron Madden]

Thought this was cool

Baseball In The 1970's
By Cam Miller @cammillerfilms

watch here:
https://twitter.com/cammillerfilms/s...C24fOZ56wtAAAA

[Kc61]

162 x 9 = 1458.

That’s a very rough approximation of innings coverage needed by a team’s pitching per season. To avoid debate, let’s call it 1400.

Greene and Lodolo, combined, might pitch 300 if healthy. Add in Diaz, say 65. Even if one includes 150 of Ashcraft and a couple of others (debatable), the Reds obviously lack enough good pitching to fill the majority of innings.

One key reason why I think they will lose 95 is a lack of innings coverage by the staff. Greene and Lodolo are excellent young pitchers, but in today’s game you need quantity as well as quality since nobody is covering 250 innings for you.

One way or the other, Reds are going to need a much deeper staff of effective pitchers.

[Kinsm]

Angels owner Art Moreno said he received three bids from MLB-vetted potential buyers this past winter, and all of those bids were at least $2.62 billion in price. This would have been a new record high for a Major League franchise, topping the $2.42 billion that Steve Cohen spent to buy the Mets in 2020. However, Moreno said the finances didn’t outweigh his desire to keep the team, and he related an anecdote about how even one of the potential buyers said “I see in your eyes that you don’t look like you’re ready to sell” when Moreno and this unnamed buyer were touring Angel Stadium.

[Kinsm]

It’s good to own a monopoly.

[Big Klu]

It’s good to own a monopoly.

[marcshoe]

Or, if you're a Castellini. . .

[Ren Deagle]

After reading these comments I find one thing on my mind: how many pitchers are there that would want to pitch in GABP? It just makes the job harder

[Chip R]

After reading these comments I find one thing on my mind: how many pitchers are there that would want to pitch in GABP? It just makes the job harder

I'm quite sure there are many minor league pitchers who would give their left one to pitch in MLB, much less GABP.