NBA 2022-23 Part 3: Big Buck Hunters

[M2]

Going to need a new thread. Despite dropping a game at Golden State last night, Milwaukee is still on fire, making it the favorite to win the title this season. Everybody else is chasing them.

Questions:

- Who do you have for your top 6's in each conference?

- Which teams do you have for a late surge? I've got the Pacers.

- Which teams are in the most trouble? I'm taking Dallas.

[Bourgeois Zee]

- Which teams do you have for a late surge?

I'm going out on a pretty massive limb and picking the Lakers, assuming LeBron can get his stuff together.

They've got a pretty easy schedule, the supporting cast is pretty solid, and AD is playing some inspired ball (most nights). They've also recognized their shortcomings and have been in "playoff mode" for a couple of weeks.

Most of my reasoning revolves around their remaining schedule. Six wins are nearly guaranteed, as Houston, Detroit, Utah, and Orlando are going to be in full-on tank mode. Then they've got two with Chicago, at 30-36, who might plan to fall as far down the rabbit hole as possible toward the bottom, in order to keep their top-four protected pick from Orlando. OKC is in a similar boat, but with their own pick. They might try to sneak into the top 10, but most likely will slide down in order to grab a lottery pick. The other six games remaining on their schedule include Dallas (in freefall since they've acquired Kyrie), Minnesota (who can't seem to decide whether they're for real or not), and New York (who's got a hobbled star and is perhaps as bad a shooting team as LA).

They'll almost assuredly lose to the Suns (twice) and the Clippers is a toss-up. Other than that, they're a chalk pick or favorite against the remaining 12 teams.

A 12-4 record to close the regular season is possible, but I think 10-6 is more likely. That's enough, IMO, to get them up to perhaps the 6th playoff slot in the West, maybe the 6th.

[SteelSD]

If the claim is that the NBA needs to cut down on the behavior of a few bad apples, I'm not sure I can agree. The effects of that would be felt in Philadelphia, for example, as much as it might be in Golden State or Boston. Embiid is known to play (very) physically, jaw with opponents, and try to get in their heads. Harden does it less often, but has in the past instigated stuff too. I don't want either of those guys out of a game I'm watching-- especially as the playoffs come around. I want them in the game, playing. Ditto Giannis, KAT, Luka, Trae Young, Ant, De'Aaron Fox-- even PatBev, whose whole shtick is to be an irritant-- should be on the floor. That means we have to have some leeway and airtight evidence before kicking guys out of the game.

And the use of video evidence is a great addition. Sure, it's a PITA to wait for 10 minutes while they go to the monitor, but it should ensure, more often than not, culpability. We disagree about Young's tech, btw. At the 17-second mark in the video, after the referee has pushed him away (and the takedown), Young comes right back to Smart, pointing his finger and jawing. Can't do that. It's a tech every time. He deserved it. (I'd have gotten the same tech, fwiw. You too, I suspect.)

Where officials have become circumspect, IMO, is those rabbit ears. Foster is among the worst, for sure. IMO, players should have to say something directly to the ref to get a technical. Like, eye-to-eye "F*#& you!" type of response to a bad call. (Including the you makes it personal. If that's not used, it should almost assuredly be ignored) No harm, no foul.

BZ, the player's you're mentioning- Embiid, Harden, Giannis, Luka, Trae Young, Fox, et al- can be chatty, chirpy, and irritating, no doubt. But they are not violent (Pat Beverly is, which is wrong too), nor do they do they attempt to initiate the kind of physical intimidation like a Brooks, Smart, and yes, Green. Those players are on two different planets regarding their history versus players who are simply physical and irritating. It's really just a red herring because, if they did the kind of crap that plagues the history of Dillon Brooks and Marcus Smart, they should be held accountable as well. But they don't, so that pretty much takes care of that.

And you and I have a completely different take on that 17 second mark in the now-available Smart v Young video. Tre Young did nothing deserving a technical foul. He was backing off, not approaching Smart. He didn't lunge at Smart, nor did he fight against either the official or the Celtics player who were between them. Did he point his finger and jaw a bit while he was disengaged? Sure. But I think that's pretty reasonable given that the a violent dirtbag just tried to injure him. There was no reason to give Young a technical foul for that. The guy did nothing other than be attacked and then object to it. That's as clean as it gets.

[M2]

I'm going out on a pretty massive limb and picking the Lakers, assuming LeBron can get his stuff together.

They've got a pretty easy schedule, the supporting cast is pretty solid, and AD is playing some inspired ball (most nights). They've also recognized their shortcomings and have been in "playoff mode" for a couple of weeks.

Most of my reasoning revolves around their remaining schedule. Six wins are nearly guaranteed, as Houston, Detroit, Utah, and Orlando are going to be in full-on tank mode. Then they've got two with Chicago, at 30-36, who might plan to fall as far down the rabbit hole as possible toward the bottom, in order to keep their top-four protected pick from Orlando. OKC is in a similar boat, but with their own pick. They might try to sneak into the top 10, but most likely will slide down in order to grab a lottery pick. The other six games remaining on their schedule include Dallas (in freefall since they've acquired Kyrie), Minnesota (who can't seem to decide whether they're for real or not), and New York (who's got a hobbled star and is perhaps as bad a shooting team as LA).

They'll almost assuredly lose to the Suns (twice) and the Clippers is a toss-up. Other than that, they're a chalk pick or favorite against the remaining 12 teams.

A 12-4 record to close the regular season is possible, but I think 10-6 is more likely. That's enough, IMO, to get them up to perhaps the 6th playoff slot in the West, maybe the 6th.

I didn't look at remaining strength of schedule (and I should have). I will say that I expect very few teams to go into full tank mode. For instance, I think Orlando will play to the wire, just because it's a team that gives a damn on a nightly basis. The Lakers are 4-2 without LeBron so far. I'm curious how they'll do on the road. Though, if they do 12-4, then the question is will that put them in the top 4? Nobody in the West seems to want that #4 slot.

[Fil3232]

I was expecting A LOT more from the Smart/Young incident…

[M2]

In the name of consistency on Smart whipping Trae onto the court, I gave props to Jeremy Sochan for using that exact method of ****housery against a Morris brother earlier this season. So I can't condemn it.

[SteelSD]

I didn't look at remaining strength of schedule (and I should have). I will say that I expect very few teams to go into full tank mode. For instance, I think Orlando will play to the wire, just because it's a team that gives a damn on a nightly basis. The Lakers are 4-2 without LeBron so far. I'm curious how they'll do on the road. Though, if they do 12-4, then the question is will that put them in the top 4? Nobody in the West seems to want that #4 slot.

While the Lakers don't have Denver or Memphis on their schedule, or any of the top four teams in the East, they do have the following:

Phoenix 2x
NY Knicks
New Orleans (trying to fight for a play-in slot)
Dallas
Chicago (home/at home, see Pels comments)
Utah 2x (again see Pels comments)
LA Clippers

That's not a particularly easy schedule, and most of the "easiest" opponents the Lakers face are fighting for the same thing they are, and it's made all the more difficult without James' return on the immediate horizon. The Dallas game will be pretty important as I believe it'll determine the season series tie-breaker between the two squads, and they're currently tied in the Loss column. Personally, I think the Lakers need to worry more holding their ground, while keeping teams catching them from behind rather than setting their sights on moving up.

[Bourgeois Zee]

BZ, the player's you're mentioning- Embiid, Harden, Giannis, Luka, Trae Young, Fox, et al- can be chatty, chirpy, and irritating, no doubt. But they are not violent (Pat Beverly is, which is wrong too), nor do they do they attempt to initiate the kind of physical intimidation like a Brooks, Smart, and yes, Green.

We disagree. I think several of the players mentioned herein (plus Booker in Phoenix, Butler in Miami, and several others) engage in physical acitivities they know to be over the line. They bait opponents too. The difference, IMO, is that Green does it unrepentently-- and often. Brooks has graduated to that level. So has PatBev.

If you're going to make examples of Green, Beverly, and Brooks, you're going to need to toss really, really good players when they act stupidly too. And I'm not in favor of plunking down $300-$400 for tickets and seeing an Embiid-less Sixers squad take on a Minnesota team missing Gobert and KAT. (Or Ant.)

[SteelSD]

We disagree. I think several of the players mentioned herein (plus Booker in Phoenix, Butler in Miami, and several others) engage in physical acitivities they know to be over the line. They bait opponents too. The difference, IMO, is that Green does it unrepentently-- and often. Brooks has graduated to that level. So has PatBev.

If you're going to make examples of Green, Beverly, and Brooks, you're going to need to toss really, really good players when they act stupidly too. And I'm not in favor of plunking down $300-$400 for tickets and seeing an Embiid-less Sixers squad take on a Minnesota team missing Gobert and KAT. (Or Ant.)

You might not remember, but both Embiid and Towns were suspended for two game each for their fight back in 2019, which was fine, and I'm not going to go blow by blow regarding who the instigator was for that one. That punishment was pretty fair in my book. But you're creating a false comparison between irritants and those who blatantly, consistently take dangerous actions against opponents. I'm not sure why, because I've been talking about actions the entire time.

I'm not stating (and haven't stated) that it's ok for someone like James Harden (or whomever) to behave like a Dillon Brooks or Marcus Smart. What I'm saying is that if players do the kind of things that Dillon Brooks and Marcus Smart have done, used as very recent behavioral examples, those actions deserve more consistent penalties, particularly if they're the instigators. What needs to stop happening is penalizing a Trae Young, despite what you think of his "rep", when he's nothing more than be the aggressor's target. That kind of stuff is truly stupid, as is ignoring the instigation altogether (the Brooks example), or the inequitable practice of throwing double-technicals at two players when only one has actually done something wrong.

[Bourgeois Zee]

You might not remember, but both Embiid and Towns were suspended for two game each for their fight back in 2019, which was fine, and I'm not going to go blow by blow regarding who the instigator was for that one. That punishment was pretty fair in my book. But you're creating a false comparison between irritants and those who blatantly, consistently take dangerous actions against opponents. I'm not sure why, because I've been talking about actions the entire time.

I'm not stating (and haven't stated) that it's ok for someone like James Harden (or whomever) to behave like a Dillon Brooks or Marcus Smart. What I'm saying is that if players do the kind of things that Dillon Brooks and Marcus Smart have done, used as very recent behavioral examples, those actions deserve more consistent penalties, particularly if they're the instigators. What needs to stop happening is penalizing a Trae Young, despite what you think of his "rep", when he's nothing more than be the aggressor's target. That kind of stuff is truly stupid, as is ignoring the instigation altogether (the Brooks example), or the inequitable practice of throwing double-technicals at two players when only one has actually done something wrong.

To be clear, what has Brooks done recently that has crossed the line that other players do not do? What has Greene done?

Is PatBev another example? If so, what has he done recently that goes over the edge for you?

I see Giannis instigated things all the time. Embiid too. Harden three. And KD, for sure. LeBron instigates things as well. Booker instigates crap all the time, as does Luka.

[Bourgeois Zee]

That's not a particularly easy schedule, and most of the "easiest" opponents the Lakers face are fighting for the same thing they are...

Two of those opponents sat their best players tonight. OKC sat SGA in the name of "abdominal strain injury management". Portland sat Lillard.

Indiana sits Haliburton, Turner, and McConnell. San Antonio sits Sochan and Keldon Johnson.

[SteelSD]

To be clear, what has Brooks done recently that has crossed the line that other players do not do? What has Greene done?

Is PatBev another example? If so, what has he done recently that goes over the edge for you?

I see Giannis instigated things all the time. Embiid too. Harden three. And KD, for sure. LeBron instigates things as well. Booker instigates crap all the time, as does Luka.

I just gave you example of behavior in the post you first responded to in the other thread. You couldn't have missed it, so I'm not sure why you're asking for examples now. I even told you what should have happened for both scenarios. I've also made sure to clarify, for your benefit, that I've been talking about behavior, not specific players. I've clearly stated that I don't care who the player is.

But to that disconnected point, your player comps are way off base regarding frequency and severity of the kind of behavior we're talking about, but that's a completely different topic than the one I've been talking about. There's a significant difference between an irritant (Niang is the Sixers guy, BTW, not Embiid or Harden) and someone who consistently pulls violent actions out of their tool bag. You also know that, so I don't really see why you'd be attempting to purposefully conflate the two.

[SteelSD]

Two of those opponents sat their best players tonight. OKC sat SGA in the name of "abdominal strain injury management". Portland sat Lillard.

Indiana sits Haliburton, Turner, and McConnell. San Antonio sits Sochan and Keldon Johnson.

That means New Orleans, should they finish their crushing of Portland, has a chance to move into a tie with the Lakers, should they lose tonight. Ditto for OKC, if they can hold on to their slim lead in San Antonio. Indiana doesn't play the Lakers for the rest of the season, and don't have a game today, so I'm not sure where you're going with that.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Congrats to the Nuggets for wasting that Joker game.

[SteelSD]

Pretty easy win for the Sixers tonight against Washinton, in what smelled a lot like a trap game. But Washington couldn't get anything going early and, despite pulling within five points at halftime, came out of the locker room afterwards acting as if they'd never heard of a ball going through a hoop. Embiid put up his usual- 34 points and got the entire fourth quarter off for a change, while James Harden supported with 18 points and 14 assists. De'Anthony Melton had a solid game offensively (10 points, 3-for-5 from deep, 6 boards, 4 dimes), and helped hold Bradley Beal in check (13 points on 5-for-12 shooting). Tobias Harris put up 11 points, but looked lost half the time; appearing as if every drive had him praying to whomever is the Patron Saint of Missed Bunnies. Maxey never really got going, but continued to improve on the defensive side of the ball.

The only thing the Wizards had going for them was a 25-point effort from Korey Kispert in 33 minutes off the bench. Porzingis and Kuzma combined to hit only 8 of 29 shots, while the Washington team nailed only 6 of their 26 threes.

There was a late-game Dewayne Dedmon sighting, and he did well- 4 points, 1 board, 1 assist in only five minutes, but man is that guy slow. Like Greg Monroe could beat him the footrace. Maybe James Monroe too. Also got to see Jaden Springer flash defensively over his three minutes late. Still young enough that you almost want to use months for his age (turned 20 in October), he's a defensive nightmare for opponents. If his offensive game catches up (specifically perimeter shooting), he may be an interesting bench option next season.