The Candidates For The Reds Last 2 Rotation Spots

[malcontent]

Since Lodolo and he were at TCU together, I am curious to see whether being in the same rotation in Cincinnati might bring out the best in Williamson.

[Kc61]

Since Lodolo and he were at TCU together, I am curious to see whether being in the same rotation in Cincinnati might bring out the best in Williamson.

Maybe so, and I’m basing my opinion strictly on the stats which can be misleading without context. But right now I’d keep Mr. Williamson as far from GABP as possible. I’d let him start games at AAA for the first half of the season and see how that goes.

[Kingspoint]

Last year at AAA Williamson threw only 32.7% ground balls and over 47% fly balls. His K rate was 7.97. His walk rate was over 6. His FIP was 4.90 and his xFIP over 6.

He'd never get through four innings in the GABP.

So, we need two long relievers for when the team is even or ahead and two long relievers for when the team is behind. Williamson qualifies for the latter. Cessa qualifies for the former. That leaves two spots. I don't know where Weaver fits when he's healthy enough to be a part of the equation. He could be on either side. I'd try Sims for one of ones we we are behind. I'd probably try to match two long-relievers together all the time who could be a lefty-right mix, where whoever comes in during early relief sees a favorable lineup the first time through.

I don't know. There's got to be a way so that we're not overusing our better Relievers, and that they can be used in games when Greene, Ashcraft and Lodolo give us leads or keep us in games. Greene, Ashcraft and Lodolo are all good enough to win 14-18 games if we can hold the leads they give to us, instead of blowing their leads and leaving them with no decisions.

[757690]

Last year at AAA Williamson threw only 32.7% ground balls and over 47% fly balls. His K rate was 7.97. His walk rate was over 6. His FIP was 4.90 and his xFIP over 6.

Williamson specifically talked about the difficulty the had adjusting to the new pitching philosophy the Reds wanted him to implement. He didn’t say any specifics, but Johnson is known for wanting his pitchers to focus more on pitching up in the zone, going for the K’s. That could be the reason behind his high fly ball rate and trouble with his control.

It’s a terrible strategy for GABP, and a problem I have with Johnson. However, both Greene and Lodolo have said they had difficulty with it at first, but have had success with it eventually. Williamson has said he feels more comfortable with this new philosophy already this spring. We will see how this develops.

[mth123]

Williamson specifically talked about the difficulty the had adjusting to the new pitching philosophy the Reds wanted him to implement. He didn’t say any specifics, but Johnson is known for wanting his pitchers to focus more on pitching up in the zone, going for the K’s. That could be the reason behind his high fly ball rate and trouble with his control.

It’s a terrible strategy for GABP, and a problem I have with Johnson. However, both Greene and Lodolo have said they had difficulty with it at first, but have had success with it eventually. Williamson has said he feels more comfortable with this new philosophy already this spring. We will see how this develops.

So he should go to AAA and dominate if that's true. If so, then call him up. I suspect we'll still be seeing the guy who walks 5+ per 9 innings. He won't get away with it in the bg leagues as well as he did in the minors.

[Kc61]

Williamson specifically talked about the difficulty the had adjusting to the new pitching philosophy the Reds wanted him to implement. He didn’t say any specifics, but Johnson is known for wanting his pitchers to focus more on pitching up in the zone, going for the K’s. That could be the reason behind his high fly ball rate and trouble with his control.

It’s a terrible strategy for GABP, and a problem I have with Johnson. However, both Greene and Lodolo have said they had difficulty with it at first, but have had success with it eventually. Williamson has said he feels more comfortable with this new philosophy already this spring. We will see how this develops.

The average major league starter struck out 8.18 per nine last year. Williamson was slightly below that, 7.97, but facing AAA hitters. This spring, very small sample, his K rate is better, 1 strikeout per inning.

[Tony Cloninger]

Williamson specifically talked about the difficulty the had adjusting to the new pitching philosophy the Reds wanted him to implement. He didn’t say any specifics, but Johnson is known for wanting his pitchers to focus more on pitching up in the zone, going for the K’s. That could be the reason behind his high fly ball rate and trouble with his control.

It’s a terrible strategy for GABP, and a problem I have with Johnson. However, both Greene and Lodolo have said they had difficulty with it at first, but have had success with it eventually. Williamson has said he feels more comfortable with this new philosophy already this spring. We will see how this develops.

That’s a bad philosophy I agree. Has anyone asked him why he would adhere to something that forces a pitcher to throw more pitches when they’re limited to do so while encouraging the ball in the air to mini Coors?

And why would a pitcher who has been more successful pitching a different way want to do this. Not that Williamson has a track record but in general terms. Did Sonny Gray do this?

[Kinsm]

Last year at AAA Williamson threw only 32.7% ground balls and over 47% fly balls. His K rate was 7.97. His walk rate was over 6. His FIP was 4.90 and his xFIP over 6.

Now predict the other candidates.

Seriously, they’re all flawed options.

[Kc61]

Now predict the other candidates.

Seriously, they’re all flawed options.

Most 4th-5th starter options for Reds are not prospects being relied upon long term. They are stopgaps.

With Williamson, Reds want to choose a path that enhances his development.

[Kinsm]

The only way to learn that a lot of walks will balloon his ERA, is for him to pitch in the bigs.

This isn’t a 20 year old that needs to be coddled.

Whether he debuts now or in two years, in all likelihood he’s not going to change the way he pitches.

[Ron Madden]

Charlie Goldsmith
@CharlieG__

Here's the Reds rotation for the next four days after today's off day

Wednesday: Graham Ashcraft
Thursday: Brandon Williamson
Friday: Hunter Greene
Saturday: Connor Overton.

Nick Lodolo pitched yesterday.
Luke Weaver is scheduled to throw a bullpen tomorrow.

[UPRedsFan]

Interesting there's no Chase Anderson on the horizon.

Williamson and Overton are on the 40. Anderson is not.

[CmdrCody]

The big question is how long Weaver will be out. They don’t need a fifth starter until April 6th. He may not make the opening day roster and still not miss a start, being ready by April 6th. If he needs more time, based on what Bell has said, he probably only misses one start, so it’s possible the Reds just use that as a bullpen day, or someone like Anderson that they can send down more easily after one start.

If Weaver has a setback, then the decision becaome tougher, but I’m guessing it will be Overton, since that give Williamson more time to develop in the minors.

The big question is how long Weaver will be out. They don’t need a fifth starter until April 6th. He may not make the opening day roster and still not miss a start, being ready by April 6th. If he needs more time, based on what Bell has said, he probably only misses one start, so it’s possible the Reds just use that as a bullpen day, or someone like Anderson that they can send down more easily after one start.

If Weaver has a setback, then the decision becaome tougher, but I’m guessing it will be Overton, since that give Williamson more time to develop in the minors.

I think it’s been proven that 4-6-23 is a day late for needing a 5th starter.

3/30/23. Greene
3/31/23 OFF DAY
4/1/23 Lodolo
4/2/23 Ashcraft
4/3/23 4th starter
4/4/23 Greene again
4/5/23 5th starter
4/6/23 Lodolo

It makes more sense to start 5th starter on 4/4 and Greene 4/5 with Lodolo, Ashcraft etc following


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[Kc61]

The only way to learn that a lot of walks will balloon his ERA, is for him to pitch in the bigs.

This isn’t a 20 year old that needs to be coddled.

Whether he debuts now or in two years, in all likelihood he’s not going to change the way he pitches.

I’m in favor of giving prospects the best chance to succeed. When they are manifestly not ready, that means more seasoning. Based on last year’s numbers Williamson is manifestly not ready. The coaches have the expert eye, so they’ll decide based on what they’ve seen this spring.

[Kinsm]

Reds coaches, whose jobs are always on the line, don't have many choices this spring, go with the may-be-in need of more seasoning rookie, career reliever, overmatched journeyman, or injured.