Connor Overton why is he the 5th starter?

[RedTeamGo!]

There is the rub. They need innings and they have relievers in the 4th and 5th spot and even worse options once they are used up.

This team needs a 30 start pitcher who can give them 170 meh innings. The Reds don't have that in the 4th or 5th spot and the staff will spring leaks elsewhere because of it. Go get one that they can keep for 3 or 4 years.

Why does this team need that this year? News flash: the reds are going to lose 100 games this year. They can use 7 AAAA pitchers to throw some 30 starts. It absolutely does not matter how bad they are.

Overton is not a reliever. His last start last year he pitched into the 8th inning.

[RedTeamGo!]

I’m honestly confused reading this site recently, do people not understand the Reds aren’t trying to win this year and the goal to just develop the young players and hope to contend in 2024/2025? I think it’s stupid and a con by ownership as well, but why are people getting mad right now like they are a veteran starter away from contending this year?

[mth123]

Why does this team need that? News flash: the reds are going to lose 100 games this year. They can use 7 AAAA pitchers to throw some 30 starts. It absolutely does not matter how bad they are.

Newsflash, they have 1000 innings to survive outside of what they'll get from Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft. Not looking for wins. Baseball is a 162 game enruance contest and that many exposed innings is going to cause other guys problems.

They don't even have the 7 AAAA pitchers you are calling for. They have two relievers in the 4th and 5th spot, a AAAA pitcher on the IL in Weaver and maybe one in AAA in Anderson. The Rest haven't even proven they are good as AA pitchers yet.

[redsfan9988]

I’m honestly confused reading this site recently, do people not understand the Reds aren’t trying to win this year and the goal to just develop the young players and hope to contend in 2024/2025? I think it’s stupid and a con by ownership as well, but why are people getting mad right now like they are a veteran starter away from contending this year?

I dunno. They have a couple of decent bats, plus Steer, Barerro, Benson, CES, and EDLC either here or on the way soon. They have a quality top-3 in the rotation and a pretty good closer. Plus they play in a bad division. A couple of BOR innings-eaters and couple of quality bullpen arms (for a grand total of about $25MM) might have at least pushed them close to .500. Maybe they’d have even sold a few tickets in August if they were within 7 games or so of the WC.

I’m not saying they’re close… I’m just saying it will be very very sad if Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft all have healthy, successful years and we get nice progress from the young hitters, but still end up losing 95 games because we have zero professional pitchers outside of the top 3 + Díaz.

[RedTeamGo!]

Newsflash, they have 1000 innings to survive outside of what they'll get from Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft. Not looking for wins. Baseball is a 162 game enruance contest and that many exposed innings is going to cause other guys problems.

They don't even have the 7 AAAA pitchers you are calling for. They have two relievers in the 4th and 5th spot, a AAAA pitcher on the IL in Weaver and maybe one in AAA in Anderson. The Rest haven't even proven they are good as AA pitchers yet.

It doesn’t matter. Have a strict innings limit on Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft, and any relievers with a pulse. Abuse the hell out of the pitchers that will be selling insurance in 3 years. Really not rocket science.

[JCM11]

It's really unbelievable that the Reds did nothing to address SP this off season. Me and many others here were begging them to bring in a decent veteran SP, but every comment from the decision makers acted like adding SP was of no big concern. Well they are likely to find out how wrong they were once the season starts.

[mth123]

It doesn’t matter. Have a strict innings limit on Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft, and any relievers with a pulse. Absurd the hell out of the pitchers that will be selling insurance in 3 years. Really not rocket science.

Sounds good in theory, but I don't believe its possible over a full season. You may start out with those limits, but in the middle of june, after the 4th and 5th starter each got removed in the third inning and the entire pen is used up and there are limited options at AAA because they just pitched the day before themsleves as well, this team will eventually ride the others longer.

They protected them last year but they had Castillo and Mahle most of the year and were looking at a short season by the time the situation developed and even with that, Ashcraft was used up and ineffective at the end of the year. I just don't think you can stick to a plan like that for 162 games. Its like any other job, when certain people don't pull their weight, you end up dumping on the ones who do. Smart management would nip that in the bud by getting more people who can pull their weight.

[RedTeamGo!]

Sounds good in theory, but I don't believe its possible over a full season. You may start out with those limits, but in the middle of june, after the 4th and 5th starter each got removed in the third inning and the entire pen is used up and there are limited options at AAA because they just pitched the day before themsleves as well, this team will eventually ride the others longer.

They protected them last year but they had Castillo and Mahle most of the year and were looking at a short season by the time the situation developed and even with that, Ashcraft was used up and ineffective at the end of the year. I just don't think you can stick to a plan like that for 162 games. Its like any other job, when certain people don't pull their weight, you end up dumping on the ones who do. Smart management would nip that in the bud by getting more people who can pull their weight.

You honestly think the reds will overuse Lodolo and Greene in September because reasons? It’s not happening.

[Kc61]

You honestly think the reds will overuse Lodolo and Greene in September because reasons? It’s not happening.

I think mth’s point is that day-to-day Reds will have an overused bullpen because of weak 4-5 starters. The result is extra innings over the course of the season for Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft because of a thin and overworked pen. Get protection for the main three with better 4-5 starters.

But I disagree because this is not a winning season, Reds’ top priority will be protecting their three young starters. They won’t let this predicted parade of horribles impact the three main guys.

Further, we’ve seen the result of relying on $10 million and under veteran starters. These guys are often hurt, often coming off a bad year. Reds didn’t want to spend $10 million and get Mike Minor 2023 production. It’s a waste, the guy they have - in tandem - will get them through. Or they’ll pick up others in season.

[texasdave]

I posted this one of the many threads about the Reds rotation:

Last year there were 75 MLB starters with an ERA above 5, who averaged 145 IP. That means that nearly every team had one or more Connor Overton’s as their 5th starter. The Reds are not unique in having a guy with a poor track record start games for them.

At a glance, these numbers aren't right. Or even close to being right.

Briefly, 30 teams x 5 full-time starters = 150 full-time starters. Let's assume that a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 is going to average around 5 IP per start. That sounds reasonable. 145 IP/5 IP = 29. So, those pitchers would be making an average of 29 starts, or, essentially, a full-season's worth of starts. That would suggest that nearly half (75 of 150) of all full-time starters in baseball had an ERA above 5.00.

[mth123]

You honestly think the reds will overuse Lodolo and Greene in September because reasons? It’s not happening.

No. I think they'll overuse them all year because they aren't getting enough innings from the 4th and 5th rotation spots. Its not about shutting them down in September, its about not leaving them in for 120 pitches the day after the entire staff got used up because the starter the day before (or 2 days before) got blown out.

I also think its about bullpen guys getting the David Hernandez treatment and basically being used and abused to career ending ineffectiveness because they aren't getting enough innings from the rotation.

[NebraskaRed]

I’m honestly confused reading this site recently, do people not understand the Reds aren’t trying to win this year and the goal to just develop the young players and hope to contend in 2024/2025? I think it’s stupid and a con by ownership as well, but why are people getting mad right now like they are a veteran starter away from contending this year?

I'm more confused by people who are suddenly very upset about someone like Overton being the 5th starter. What were they expecting? I get it if you haven't been paying attention to what the Reds have (and haven't) done over the offseason, but don't act like it's breaking news.

[0-2 Count]

He has pictures that Phil C. does not want to be made public.

[JCM11]

At a glance, these numbers aren't right. Or even close to being right.

Briefly, 30 teams x 5 full-time starters = 150 full-time starters. Let's assume that a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 is going to average around 5 IP per start. That sounds reasonable. 145 IP/5 IP = 29. So, those pitchers would be making an average of 29 starts, or, essentially, a full-season's worth of starts. That would suggest that nearly half (75 of 150) of all full-time starters in baseball had an ERA above 5.00.

They're not even close to being right. There were 70 pitchers in MLB who threw 145+ innings and a whopping 4 of them had 5+ ERA's. Horrible pitchers aren't allowed to go 6 innings and 10 ER lol.

[podgejeff_]

Newsflash, they have 1000 innings to survive outside of what they'll get from Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft. Not looking for wins. Baseball is a 162 game enruance contest and that many exposed innings is going to cause other guys problems.

They don't even have the 7 AAAA pitchers you are calling for. They have two relievers in the 4th and 5th spot, a AAAA pitcher on the IL in Weaver and maybe one in AAA in Anderson. The Rest haven't even proven they are good as AA pitchers yet.

That's what the waiver wire and Indy leagues are for.

We might even get crazy with it and give out cash considerations to get AAAA castoffs from somebody else's farm.