Connor Overton why is he the 5th starter?

[757690]

At a glance, these numbers aren't right. Or even close to being right.

Briefly, 30 teams x 5 full-time starters = 150 full-time starters. Let's assume that a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 is going to average around 5 IP per start. That sounds reasonable. 145 IP/5 IP = 29. So, those pitchers would be making an average of 29 starts, or, essentially, a full-season's worth of starts. That would suggest that nearly half (75 of 150) of all full-time starters in baseball had an ERA above 5.00.

They're not even close to being right. There were 70 pitchers in MLB who threw 145+ innings and a whopping 4 of them had 5+ ERA's. Horrible pitchers aren't allowed to go 6 innings and 10 ER lol.

The numbers are correct, I just wasn’t clear in presenting them. There were 75 starters who had a 5 ERA or higher. They combined for 4373 IP or 145 IP per team, not per player. Per player that averages out to 59 IP.

No team had 1 singular fifth starter. They all used a combination of pitchers for that 5th starter. 75 of them had an ERA over 5, they all combined for 4373 IP and a 5.86 ERA. So the average 5th starter slot had 2.5 pitchers filling it, with a combined ERA of 5.86. Hope that makes it clearer.

[jedwards]

Because Cessa and Overton have good stuff and more pitching smarts. Although Greene and Lodolo improved greatly in second half. Did you not watch them last year? Did you see Overton wiff all those Cubs a week or so ago? He has great curve/cutter that will get groundballs or strikeouts.

[RedTeamGo!]

I think mth’s point is that day-to-day Reds will have an overused bullpen because of weak 4-5 starters. The result is extra innings over the course of the season for Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft because of a thin and overworked pen. Get protection for the main three with better 4-5 starters.

But I disagree because this is not a winning season, Reds’ top priority will be protecting their three young starters. They won’t let this predicted parade of horribles impact the three main guys.

Further, we’ve seen the result of relying on $10 million and under veteran starters. These guys are often hurt, often coming off a bad year. Reds didn’t want to spend $10 million and get Mike Minor 2023 production. It’s a waste, the guy they have - in tandem - will get them through. Or they’ll pick up others in season.

Exactly correct. The bullpen doesn’t matter either. There’s one pitcher, maybe 2, in the bullpen that have anything resembling a major league future. There are 4, maybe 5, pitchers on this roster that matter past 2023.

[mth123]

The numbers are correct, I just wasn’t clear in presenting them. There were 75 starters who had a 5 ERA or higher. They combined for 4373 IP or 145 IP per team, not per player. Per player that averages out to 59 IP.

No team had 1 singular fifth starter. They all used a combination of pitchers for that 5th starter. 75 of them had an ERA over 5, they all combined for 4373 IP and a 5.86 ERA. So the average 5th starter slot had 2.5 pitchers filling it, with a combined ERA of 5.86. Hope that makes it clearer.

If it was only the fifth starter, I'd be like everyone else. But its also the 4th starter and most of the bullpen. At some point this team will run out of pitchers unless they get somebody to cover those innings. If the Reds had all these guys lined up for 1 slot, I'd probably be OK with it. They probably need one slot to give guys a shot. I'm not high on the young pitchers, but I think they should have a rotate in and out slot to give those guys a chance when they may show they deserve it. Its the 4th spot I have an issue with. The Reds are using their best multi-inning reliever as the 4th starter. He may even be OK for a month or two in there, but he'll run out of gas by mid-June and its depriving the pen of a much-needed competent multi-inning guy who could probably cover 80 or so innings. Get a 4th starter, go with the cast of clowns in the 5th spot and stick Cessa in the pen and boot one of these 30ish Y/O minor leaguers off the roster.

I don't understand everyone's resistance to going out and getting a pitcher now. They are going to need that guy for multiple seasons.

[mth123]

Exactly correct. The bullpen doesn’t matter either. There’s one pitcher, maybe 2, in the bullpen that have anything resembling a major league future. There are 4, maybe 5, pitchers on this roster that matter past 2023.

And those will be the ones who get overworked.

[RedTeamGo!]

And those will be the ones who get overworked.

The 1 maybe 2 bullpen pitchers? Nah, they should have innings limits too. You are going to see a lot of Young, Gibault, etc.

Diaz will mostly pitch in save opps, which will be few and far between. Cruz will pitch in close games, again - few and far between.

[westofyou]

Has anyone looked at Overton’s track record?

7 minor league seasons
13 games STARTED total in the minors.
2 years major league experience
1-1 record
Started 4 games for Reds April and May pitched good but had back issues. Came back for 2 games in September nowhere near as good.

Now he seems to be the 5th starter based on a non existent “TRACK RECORD”

Read his lifetime stats and then please prove me wrong.

Why?

Because this team is not built to win. They are built to develop and move forward, without the fun of winning

[Big Klu]

I imagine there are similar threads over on Cardinalszone, when the Cardinals announced that Taylor Motter has made their team. Reds fans might remember Motter from last year, though they probably did everything they could to forget him. He was dreadful. He played in 2 games, 6 PA’s, 1 hit and 3 errors at 3B.

Motter wasn’t good enough to stick with the 100 loss Reds last year. His track record is 5 seasons, .191 BA, .572 OPS, -5.5 UZR for a total of -1.9 fWAR. And he just made the Cardinals opening day roster.

Ahh, Taylor Motter.

If you wear #94 in Cincinnati and your name isn't Sam Hubbard, then you probably aren't in the long-term plan -- or even the short-term plan.

[malcontent]

The most he’s ever thrown as a pro is 58 innings, so he’s not going to be eating many.

That's the stat that blew me away when I checked them.

I mean, Anderson is at least a veteran starter (183 MLB starts).

I suggested that maybe Young deserved a shot based on his 2019 season.

[Bourgeois Zee]

mth's assumptions about Bell regularly overworking his good, young arms hasn't been true in Cincinnati since Dusty Baker managed, but narratives die hard. The Reds didn't overwork anyone last season. They didn't overwork anyone in 2021 either-- even Antone, who was by far their best and largely only effective reliever for the first half, was only worked double duty four times (and each of those followed several days off afterward). As the staff fireman, he went over 30 pitches twice in the last two months of the season-- once on May 25 and once of June 3.

All of Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, and Diaz will be handled with relative care this season, just as they were last season. Diaz went over 30 pitches twice-- and was given multiple days off each time. Greene was allowed over 100 pitches five times all season-- and over 110 twice (once with a no-hitter intact). Lodolo was allowed five games over 100 pitches, but none of 107. Ashcraft was allowed seven 100+ outings, with only one exceeding 110 pitches.

[JCM11]

The numbers are correct, I just wasn’t clear in presenting them. There were 75 starters who had a 5 ERA or higher. They combined for 4373 IP or 145 IP per team, not per player. Per player that averages out to 59 IP.

No team had 1 singular fifth starter. They all used a combination of pitchers for that 5th starter. 75 of them had an ERA over 5, they all combined for 4373 IP and a 5.86 ERA. So the average 5th starter slot had 2.5 pitchers filling it, with a combined ERA of 5.86. Hope that makes it clearer.

That sounds about right. Cessa could be a really valuable #5 SP if the Reds had bothered to get a decent #4.

[Kc61]

If it was only the fifth starter, I'd be like everyone else. But its also the 4th starter and most of the bullpen. At some point this team will run out of pitchers unless they get somebody to cover those innings. If the Reds had all these guys lined up for 1 slot, I'd probably be OK with it. They probably need one slot to give guys a shot. I'm not high on the young pitchers, but I think they should have a rotate in and out slot to give those guys a chance when they may show they deserve it. Its the 4th spot I have an issue with. The Reds are using their best multi-inning reliever as the 4th starter. He may even be OK for a month or two in there, but he'll run out of gas by mid-June and its depriving the pen of a much-needed competent multi-inning guy who could probably cover 80 or so innings. Get a 4th starter, go with the cast of clowns in the 5th spot and stick Cessa in the pen and boot one of these 30ish Y/O minor leaguers off the roster.

I don't understand everyone's resistance to going out and getting a pitcher now. They are going to need that guy for multiple seasons.

The resistance is based on experience. Wade Miley pitched all of 14.1 innings in his entire first season as a Red. Minor was hurt and ineffective. The $10 million and under group of veteran starters on the market is usually not reliable.

I doubt anyone would object to Reds acquiring a good, quality pitcher now, but since they aren’t spending much it ain’t happening. So it’s a matter of throwing out money to get a name. They have several guys who, in tandem, will fill the role currently.

[LeatherPants]

He was a pretty effective innings eater before his freak back injury last season.

Honestly, if you’re at a point you’re rooting for players to get injured in hopes the reds are as bad as possible you should probably find something else to do with your time.

He was fine last year, but it was only 33 innings.

[pedro]

Because they likely have no delusions that they are going to get 25 starts from Overton and are willing to throw him to the wolves in April and May and rotate in someone else when his arm falls off.

I’ll be surprised is we see less than five guys trotted out there in that slot this year.


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[LeatherPants]

He was fine last year, but it was only 33 innings.

Also, who am I rooting for to be injured? That came out of nowhere.