With the recent demotions, I thought I could reason out a rough idea of what Krall and the Reds have in store in Louisville.
I've struggled for three days in trying to figure it out.
Votto's interview leads me to believe he'll begin the season on the IL, with both Vosler and Ramos on the parent team. He'll need some time in Louisville, I'm guessing.
Senzel, meanwhile, will surely play some games in Kentucky to get ready for the season, ramping up to a likely mid-April start with the team. If everyone's hitting at that point, he might be pushed back to as far as Memorial Day. Regardless, he's Louisville's for the time being. He'll need some innings, I suspect, at 2B and 3B (and perhaps SS) to boost his utility.
So Votto and Senzel are MLBers on the Louisville team. We'll start with those two.
I think EDLC is high enough in the prospect pecking order to be named AAA starting SS. Pretty apparent that AA didn't hold much of a challenge, and keeping him in that league isn't what's best for him as a prospect. (Challenges-- especially offspeed and approach challenges-- would be better served in AAA, I think. Everyone knows he can hit a fastball.) I think Christian Encarnacion-Strand has well enough in Spring Training to be given PAs at 3B, 1B, and/or DH as well. Michael Siani, TJ Hopkins, and Alex McGarry all got a few Louisville PAs last year and are prospects enough that they too should be considered as near-locks for the Bat team. That's seven.
Stuart Fairchild's hit well for multiple AAA seasons and was pretty good for Cincinnati last year when given an audition and consistent playing time. He's a pretty good depth pieces. On the infield, they also have Matt Reynolds, whom they seem to value as a utility glove, and Richie Martin, who was a second-division starter at SS for a couple of year in Baltimore. There's also Alejo Lopez, who's been a part of the 40-man roster for two years and has looked... okay as a high average, no power utility backup. In AAA, he's been a monster, with a great 2021 season followed by a forgettable 2022.
There are also the free agent OF they signed. Nick Solak hit really well in AAA last year and was signed early this off-season-- obviously, the Reds see something there. Nick Martini hit great in 2019 and has struggled with intermittent MLB time since. But he's turned in very, very good offensive numbers in AAA in those seasons. Martini is the obligatory veteran hitter they may want to lean on in Louisville. You know he's going to be good if he's in the lineup. He's LH, so that's a help. Nick Plummer is also LH and in a similar spot, though he's half a decade younger. He obliterated the ball in 2021 in St. Louis's system, then struggled after moving to the Mets last year. He can play all three OF spots.
That's five more, for a total of 14 AAA players.
Speaking of depth, Chuckie Robinson is going to be in AAA. Jhonny Pereda was a minor league free agent they signed-- he has a history of hitting well in AAA. Eric Yang is another catcher who played some AAA last year as well. He was pushed pretty aggressively after a poor AA half-season and in 13 games hit pretty well. He makes 17 players:
C Robinson [R]
C Pereda [R]
C Yang [R]
1B/DH Votto [L]
1B/ DH/ OF McGarry [L]
1B/ DH/ 3B Encarnacion-Strand [R]
2B Lopez [R]
UT IF Reynolds [R]
UT IF Martin [R]
SS De La Cruz [S]
UT IF/ OF Senzel [R]
OF Hopkins [R]
OF Siani [L]
OF Fairchild [R]
OF Solak [R]
OF Plummer [L]
OF Martini [L]
Now, that's a team that should at least compete for a pennant. There's tons of quality AAAA depth, some real thumpers, a little youth, and lots and lots of power. Oh, yeah: There are also 17 players there. Which is, I'm pretty sure, kinda bad roster management.
Now, looking at list, it should be pretty simple. Get rid of one catcher (Yang moves to AA), one 1B guy (McGarry to AA to start), one middle infielder (Lopez or Martin is released), and one OF (Hopkins moved back to AA, maybe?). That eases up some position battles and leaves the Bats with the following:
CF Siani
SS EDLC
1B/ DH Votto
3B/ 1B/ DH Encarnacion-Strand
OF/ DH Plummer/ Fairchild
OF/ DH Solak
DH/ OF Martini/ Fairchild
2B Reynolds
C Robinson/ Pereda
Senzel would be the utility guy playing all three OF spots, 2B, and 3B (when Encarnacion-Strand moves over to give Votto a breather). He'd lead off when in the lineup, moving Siani to 9th. Richie Martin would play a utility role when Senzel is called up. He'd hit 9th in the order, with Siani back on top.
That retards development in Hopkins and McGarry, though neither is likely considered a top 30 kind of guy even if they put up 800 OPS production. That it also creates a logjam in Chattanooga is another discussion altogether. We'll ignore that for the nonce.
Pitching is a bit easier to figure out, even if I'm uncertain of bullpen roles. And there's not a left-hander to be seen.
Chase Anderson will be the erstwhile ace of the staff. Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt slot in behind him. All three should see some time in Cincinnati this season. (Sigh.) Ben Lively is an innings eater who's perfectly cromulent and likely to take the ball everyday for the entire AAA season. It's good to have one of those, at least. Kevin Herget pitched really well in Durham last year, walking no one and striking out a fair few. He's probably the clubhouse leader for the 5th spot, at least for now. (We'll assume the Reds are too cheap to even scan the waiver wire for a cheap pitcher to replace Overton, who doesn't belong on a major league staff presently.) Randy Wynn pitched for the Bats last year with middling results. He's back again this year-- and probably starts the season as the 6th starter/ long reliever.
That leaves Casey Legumina in a bullpen role-- which makes sense. That's what they talked up when they acquired him for Farmer. The Reds seem to really like Ricky Karcher and Daniel Duarte; they've got live arms, and, I suspect, will share fireman duties. Silvino Bracho might end up the closer-- I like him as a depth piece for a middle relief option. Derek Law, probably the first guy who'll be called to provide relief arm depth, is a near-lock if he doesn't make the Reds. Krall and company also seem enamored of Tayron Guerrero, a giant of a human being who seems to have no earthly clue where the ball's going. (Practice for Big Joe Boyle, perhaps?) That leaves one spot for Tommy Eveld, Jared Solomon, Eddy Demurias, or perhaps Michael Byrne. (I'm leaning toward Eveld based on numbers, but the others are likely to get their time on the I-65 shuttle between Chattanooga and Louisville as the season progresses.) They might decide to give LH Even Kravetz a spot, because he is indeed LH. Andy Fisher is another southpaw. I don't think they're especially likely, however.
That's a pitching staff, then, of:
SP Anderson [R]
SP Williamson [L]
SP Stoudt [R]
SP Lively [R]
SP Herget [R]
RP Bracho [R]
RP Karcher [R]
RP Duarte [R]
RP Legumina [R]
RP Wynn [R]
RP Guerrero [R]
RP Eveld [R]
RP Law [R]
The bullpen looks really, really solid for AAA. (Of course, bullpens are notoriously fickle.) Lots of consistent minor league guys there whose statistics say they're hard to hit, hard to square up, and throw really hard. Most of the pen has had at least some major league success-- and those that haven't have some attributes that might endear them to the Reds beyond being cheap. Some issues with walks, as always. Not sure the rotation is good enough, but Herget was sneaky good last year. If he pitches all season, I like him to stabilize it somewhat. And mid-season callups (Andrew Abbott, Joe Boyle, Lyon Richardson, and perhaps Connor Phillips) bump the upside up quite a bit. There's some variance here, but it looks like an intriguing club offensively with a decent bullpen and just enough starting pitching to compete for a pennant.
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Originally Posted by Kc61
