Mets Want Alexis Diaz, The Reds’ Price Is High

[Slyder]

When the following year comes and you actually are winning 85 games, do they send said closer back to you, or do you see if you can find a different one?

They aren't going to be at that level with some major investment in the major league team.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I don't disagree with you that this story might be made up.
That said, if Krall gets an offer he likes , Diaz is gone, and it's not going to be a massive overpay. I'm not saying the Reds are guaranteed to be ripped off, but Diaz is a great target for the Mets.
Reds have no interest in winning in the short term (probably not long term either).. Diaz will probably price himself out of town before the Reds play 500 ball again.
After this season, Diaz will have accumulated 2 years of service time.. He had a 3 WAR last year, if he puts up another 3 WAR year this season, the Reds are not going to pay him arbitration money in 2025.
The timer is already ticking.

Look at all the moves the Reds have made in the last 2 years.
Krall probably wants a good prospect(s) in AA or AAA..

I don't know this platform well enough yet to remove redundancy on comments, so ... there's that. And without arguing this point beyond my dislike for Heyman's style that he's developed over 20 years of creating click bait -- which is what this almost always is, and not just about the Reds -- I have no special love for Alexis Diaz. He's found money at the moment and may very well be nothing but an average bullpen flinger not unlike Cionel Perez before he's done.
Diaz has far more upside than that and he will be likely the best reliever a 5th place team can have. As far as Krall, there seems a narrative that he's interested in making the Lookouts a winning team at the che-pass expense of the Reds.
That may be the reality but I doubt that's the objective. Sure, to get to the """facts""" here about Diaz and his worth, consider a trade. But that's not about Heyman. Almost all my points are about him, not about whether trading Diaz is a bad/good idea. I think any trade that won't be made by Jon Heyman is worth evaluating.
What the Reds need is NOT coming back in a trade for a relief pitcher with one year of big-league experience. It just isn't.

[Falls City Beer]

Can you imagine how many close games the Reds will lose if they send out Diaz? We'd really be in 100+ loss vicinity.

[mth123]

It all depends on the return. If they could get Alex Ramirez and David Peterson for Diaz and a low level arm (somebody like Sam Benschotter or Thomas Far) I'd do it in a heartbeat. Ramirez becomes a CF of the future and Peterson goes straight into the rotation and can be kept for 4 seasons counting 2023. Mets could backfill with Tyler McGill and with Diaz in the pen would be a better team overall.

With the 4th spot in the rotation nailed down, some of these iffy starters in AA and AAA could be moved to the bullpen, where their flaws could be hidden, to fix that area.

[JFLegal]

yeah, if the mets want to overpay for him, cool. anything short of that alexis diaz is the exact type of player the reds need for their rebuild. 5 years of team control left. you know how valuable he will be if he's the reds' closer for the next 5 years, performs well, all while not hurting the budget at all.

the reds' bullpen is already trash. if they trade diaz, they have to get a massive return for him. one of the few things i'm excited about for this season is seeing greene, lodolo and ashcraft pitch. but i also know this horrific bullpen will blow a bunch of wins for them. the bullpen is literally a bunch of JAGs, plus diaz. it's gonna be ugly, but at least we're used to it by now. it's amazing how this front office has no idea how to piece a quality bullpen together.

[Benihana]

Give me Baty or Parada+Ramirez. Anything less Alexis is ours.

[mth123]

I think we have unreasonable expectations of what Diaz will be long term. He pitched over his head last year. I think he'll still be a solid pitcher for a few years, but he's not the dominant guy he appears to be based on his ERA last year. His K/BB ratio was 2.5 to 1. That's solid, but not dominant. His BABIP was .180. He's probably a mid to high 3s ERA guy moving forward. That's a solid bullpen guy and definitely somebody I'd want to have when trying to win, but its not irreplaceable and on a team that's still building, if he can be sold to fill a couple of longer-term holes, I think it needs to be considered. Ask too much and you get nothing.

[Kc61]

I think we have unreasonable expectations of what Diaz will be long term. He pitched over his head last year. I think he'll still be a solid pitcher for a few years, but he's not the dominant guy he appears to be based on his ERA last year. His K/BB ratio was 2.5 to 1. That's solid, but not dominant. His BABIP was .180. He's probably a mid to high 3s ERA guy moving forward. That's a solid bullpen guy and definitely somebody I'd want to have when trying to win, but its not irreplaceable and on a team that's still building, if he can be sold to fill a couple of longer-term holes, I think it needs to be considered. Ask too much and you get nothing.

But if you don’t ask for something you don’t get it. So Reds are correct to try for a major return for Diaz.

I tend to agree that Diaz is a “sell high” candidate and it isn’t a bad time to explore a trade, but there’s a solid argument that the time has come to hold onto controllable major league assets with ability. Diaz is that, even if there’s a question whether he’ll hold up long term.

The Mets situation is an opportunity, so explore it, but I’d tend toward passing on an average return but selling on an above average return, whatever the individual names may be.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

Have the actual METS said they would explore a trade for the other Diaz, or have we just conjured up that conversation because there's no reason to not discuss things that were introduced by somebody who hasn't actually said he talked to the actual METS.
If this is just a suppose-we-did-this conversation on trading Diaz, why don't we leave New York for the minute and do some actual mental work on the other 28 teams that might be looking at a top level reliever.
If we can get talent back for Diaz, is New York the only place to look for it? Reds need some power hitters who can BABIP and such. And if they don't get them, it doesn't matter if the bullpen blows chunks.

[mth123]

But if you don’t ask for something you don’t get it. So Reds are correct to try for a major return for Diaz.

I tend to agree that Diaz is a “sell high” candidate and it isn’t a bad time to explore a trade, but there’s a solid argument that the time has come to hold onto controllable major league assets with ability. Diaz is that, even if there’s a question whether he’ll hold up long term.

The Mets situation is an opportunity, so explore it, but I’d tend toward passing on an average return but selling on an above average return, whatever the individual names may be.

Well, I wouldn't give him away, but the idea of Baty or nothing seems a little too optimistic. This team is still years away and needs a lot, especially on the pitching side, so if they can get a pitcher to plug into the rotation for several years, even if its a number 4 type guy, I'd do it. I wouldn't deal him for a guy like Peterson straight up, but if they could get Peterson and a prospect with reasonable chances of becoming a long term regular player, they should do it. Asking for a top 25 prospect is a non-starter IMO. If i was the Mets, I wouldn't pay that.

[GAC]

Top Prospects that don't play SS.

[prefer OFer]

[Kc61]

Well, I wouldn't give him away, but the idea of Baty or nothing seems a little too optimistic. This team is still years away and needs a lot, especially on the pitching side, so if they can get a pitcher to plug into the rotation for several years, even if its a number 4 type guy, I'd do it. I wouldn't deal him for a guy like Peterson straight up, but if they could get Peterson and a prospect with reasonable chances of becoming a long term regular player, they should do it. Asking for a top 25 prospect is a non-starter IMO. If i was the Mets, I wouldn't pay that.

I would have no interest in trading Diaz for a #4 type starting pitcher. Diaz is a controllable back-end reliever with dynamic stuff. If I can’t get a player with more upside than #4 starter, than I’d just hold Alexis.

If Mets don’t want to trade Baty I’d consider their young catcher, Kevin Perada, but that’s about as far as I’d listen. The Mets are the team with the bullpen need, if they don’t want to give up value, I’m done.

[mth123]

I would have no interest in trading Diaz for a #4 type starting pitcher. Diaz is a controllable back-end reliever with dynamic stuff. If I can’t get a player with more upside than #4 starter, than I’d just hold Alexis.

If Mets don’t want to trade Baty I’d consider their young catcher, Kevin Perada, but that’s about as far as I’d listen. The Mets are the team with the bullpen need, if they don’t want to give up value, I’m done.

I guess I just don't share the optimism on Diaz upside. He's s solid reliever for now. Those guys usually burn out in a couple of years. Since they pitch so few innings, it takes the league a little while to catch on. My guess is by 2026 or so, Diaz will be a memory or be like other guys who have a couple of good early years closing games and fall farther down the food chain.

I'd guess this team's long term closer is somebody like Williamson, Boyle or Stoudt.

[Kc61]

I guess I just don't share the optimism on Diaz upside. He's s solid reliever for now. Those guys usually burn out in a couple of years. Since they pitch so few innings, it takes the league a little while to catch on. My guess is by 2026 or so, Diaz will be a memory or be like other guys who have a couple of good early years closing games and fall farther down the food chain.

I'd guess this team's long term closer is somebody like Williamson, Boyle or Stoudt.

You want to trade Diaz. I don’t. I’ll entertain it because Mets have a need and present an opportunity. If that doesn’t translate into an advantageous deal, I’m done.

Most players have risk, certainly your #4 starter has risk. That’s why he’s a #4 starter. I’ll stick with Diaz if that’s the return.

[Ron Madden]

So, the grass is greener on the other side of the fence?

Often wanting to trade for or sign free agent relievers with the same amount or less talent than Alexis Diaz ?