Andrew Abbott

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I don't think you can say this with any confidence.

Abbott's handled everyone put in front of him.

Zach Neto is among the best prospects in baseball. He didn't touch Abbott. Like, at all. He managed a walk, so that's... something.
The Mississippi Braves' Cody Milligan (their best prospect) took the collar too. He managed to put the ball in play once, but K'ed the other two times he faced Abbott.
The Smokies best prospect (Pete Crow-Armstrong) sat out against Abbott. So did their second-best prospect, Owen Caissie. Their third-best prospect struck (Pablo Aliendo) struck out twice against Abbott in two PAs.

Keeping score, then, the best prospects that each team sent out there against Abbott went 0-6 with 5 K's and one BB.

Well, yeah Abbott has beaten good Double-A hitters but the conversation was about him pitching in the big leagues. That of course connects to my comment about them being "cautious."
If he proves he can get Triple-A hitters out, we can possibly be discussing the same thing. If he can get Betts and Alonso and Goldschmidt out, then you actually ARE talking about the same thing.

I'm not moving the envelope around on this. Yes, I can say this with confidence. Andrew Abbott has dominated the Southern League but he hasn't had time to learn how to get good hitters out.

You know, the ones who play in the National League.

Those guys.

I don't know that any of the guys you are mentioning here are able to get a hit off of anybody currently pitching for the Reds, either.

Staying in our lanes, OK?

Seems pretty simple to me.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Well, yeah Abbott has beaten good Double-A hitters but the conversation was about him pitching in the big leagues. That of course connects to my comment about them being "cautious."
If he proves he can get Triple-A hitters out, we can possibly be discussing the same thing. If he can get Betts and Alonso and Goldschmidt out, then you actually ARE talking about the same thing.

I'm not moving the envelope around on this. Yes, I can say this with confidence. Andrew Abbott has dominated the Southern League but he hasn't had time to learn how to get good hitters out.

You know, the ones who play in the National League.

Those guys.

I don't know that any of the guys you are mentioning here are able to get a hit off of anybody currently pitching for the Reds, either.

Staying in our lanes, OK?

Seems pretty simple to me.

He's not had the chance to show whether he can get MLB hitters out.

You can't say what you're saying-- that he'll struggle against MLB hitters-- with any confidence.

You assume that he can't do it because *reasons*.

That's remarkably poor logic.

[Kingspoint]

Yeah, it’s only 11 innings but those numbers so far are eye-popping. He’ll be in AAA as soon as there’s room.

There's room. Have you seen their pitching?

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

He's not had the chance to show whether he can get MLB hitters out.

You can't say what you're saying-- that he'll struggle against MLB hitters-- with any confidence.

You assume that he can't do it because *reasons*.

That's remarkably poor logic.

I can reasonably assume he's not going to throw 2-hitters against the Cardinals, Padres or Dodgers.
I can also not predict that he won't get 8 straight QS and become the first Reds lefty rookie to start the All-Star game since Starch Wolligan did it in aught-seven.

So yes, I will couch my prediction in probability that he's not going to dominate big-league hitters if he leaves Chatty tomorrow and slots into the Reds rotation. But I also don't want to leave the illusion that since he's beaten every good hitter in the Southern that he's an automatic to take a rotation spot for David Bell.

The Southern League is made up of whiff artists this year. I've actually watched the games. Nobody can hit anything in that league. Is Connor Phillips a sure-hit? He K'd 11 guys tonight. The Smokies pitcher was almost unhittable.

So I am going to leave it at this -- the overly optimistic fans who think Andrew Abbott is one bus ticket away from Cincy are mostly just hoping what they see is real. He probably is very good. I like him. Smooth, has a nice pace and a great mix of pitches. But he is still going to struggle against good big-league hitters.

How I know this is, well ... 150 years of baseball history says rookies are going to be humbled. That does not diminish my enthusiasm for Abbott's ability. He has a high ceiling and most likely, health considered, will be a very solid big-league pitcher -- sooner than later.

I think I call this "history," which dovetails onto "logic."

Hope this helps.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I can reasonably assume he's not going to throw 2-hitters against the Cardinals, Padres or Dodgers.
I can also not predict that he won't get 8 straight QS and become the first Reds lefty rookie to start the All-Star game since Starch Wolligan did it in aught-seven.

There's a chasm between "effective" and what you've typed above.

But you know that, realize you were wrong, and are now trying like hell to move the goalposts.

Speaking of moving goalposts, we should all notice how you've changed from earlier posts vis a vis Abbott's ability, ceiling, and possible future.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

There's a chasm between "effective" and what you've typed above.

But you know that, realize you were wrong, and are now trying like hell to move the goalposts.

Speaking of moving goalposts, we should all notice how you've changed from earlier posts vis a vis Abbott's ability, ceiling, and possible future.

Barring any entries here that actually advance the conversation, I will make this my last entry on Abbott as it pertains to our perceived opinions on him/his ability or combination thereof.

If my position on Abbott has changed over 3 starts he's made, it's because he made 3 starts and his appearances have impacted my opinion. He's a good pitcher, a lefty in a league that can't hit its weight and he's 24. He's good, ready for Louisville and probably ought to be there the next time the paychecks are cut.

If I believe he's not ready for the majors, I'd say that's consistent with the Reds FO, which has not put him in the majors. If any goalposts are being moved, it's that my comment that he can't get out good hitters isn't that he can't get out good Double-A hitters -- everyone in that league is getting out almost every hitter.

I can't say if Abbott is now dominating or if he's just part of a whole cluster of good arms in the mid-minors. The only way we will know is if he gets better challenges. I want to see that soon, and everyone in baseball ought to want that. I also want to see Lyon Richardson go after some Triple-A hitters, not these Double-A schmucks who all evidently think raking a 1.200 OPS matters when your batting average is under .100.

So back to Abbott, finally, so as to defuse what appears to be an uncomfortable alliance -- you are exceptionally well-versed in your comments on the players and I would engage that on any level. So long as what I write is construed to what it really is, not what I imply -- I think we will be OK in continuing to assess our lefty prospect.

I still don't see the zeal some have on this forum about elevating him to the Reds. Just because the Reds pitching is poor does not mean that Abbott is an instant fix. We all know how it went with Homer Bailey.

I will leave it at that. Seriously what we have talked about with Abbott is probably more than most minor league pitchers get. The bulk of fans don't have a clue about the farm system. "Trade 'em all" is what I usually hear.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Seriously what we have talked about with Abbott is probably more than most minor league pitchers get. The bulk of fans don't have a clue about the farm system. "Trade 'em all" is what I usually hear.

This site (and this forum in particular) likely has the most advanced baseball discussion for Cincinnati prospects on the interwebs. We discuss nearly every good Red prospect-- and many poor Red prospects-- in granular detail. There's no better board for information, IMO, or analysis.

When you have a few extra hours, take a look at the archives. I can remember knock-down, drag-out battles over Chris Denorfia, Bradly Clark, and Samone Peters. It's the only site on the internet where "getting Reithed" is perfectly understood.

[redsfan9988]

He’s striking out 64% of the batters he’s faced. The two runs he allowed should have been unearned. Regardless of how we may think he’d do if he was facing the Pirates tonight, he should be moved up until he faces hitters that challenge him. Continuing to face hitters he’s clearly mastered for much longer will cause atrophy.

The argument about his long-term viability as an MLB SP is moot at this point. The argument about his long-term viability as a AA SP has been settled.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

This site (and this forum in particular) likely has the most advanced baseball discussion for Cincinnati prospects on the interwebs. We discuss nearly every good Red prospect-- and many poor Red prospects-- in granular detail. There's no better board for information, IMO, or analysis.

When you have a few extra hours, take a look at the archives. I can remember knock-down, drag-out battles over Chris Denorfia, Bradly Clark, and Samone Peters. It's the only site on the internet where "getting Reithed" is perfectly understood.

Thanks. I was introduced to this forum a month or so ago after a lot of years on Red Reporter. Red Reporter doesn't even do its Farmers Only page now, which was -- at worst -- amusing for its nicknames.

RR was very good until the last couple of years and it's not much now for all the reasons we want to dredge up. But the days when Dave Sappelt was considered a prospect, yeah ... I recall when the search for the next generation was ongoing. Sappelt was playing for Sioux City the last I heard. Hey, it's baseball.

I did for a time dabble in Redleg Nation and the guy who ran that was one who insisted WHiP was a fake stat. No interest in that now, though Doug Gray is somewhat of a legend.

But anything is better than Facebook fans. So while I tend to bring my own thoughts along after 65 years of following baseball, it's still a fascinating find. The advent of minor league streaming is a joy to me and while the broadcasters in the minors seem to be more bothered that they have to watch the actual games, the video is really improved a lot in the past couple of summers.

Maybe we can 'truce out' and engage in useful debates.

[membengal]

doug came from here. Every one of us on this part of the forum interacted with him for years, for better or worse.

[WrongVerb]

Bryce Spalding
@bryce_spalding

Andrew Abbott is headed to Louisville via his IG story! ��

Moving on up!

#RedsMiLB
9:22am · 24 Apr 2023

[JCM11]

Wow the Reds made a smart move. I wouldn't be surprised to see Abbott in Cincy by early summer. If Cessa settles down they may not have an immediate need unless they want to move him back the pen or of course if there's an injury. Just let Abbott keep busting down the door and eventually they'll have no choice. With all the things wrong with the MLB team SP is something I'm feeling better about. Locking up Greene along with Ashcraft looking more like a front line guy than a mid rotation guy are nice developments. Then you add Abbott striking out a million batters in AA and I'm more optimistic than I was a month ago.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I think the Reds will get a deal done with Ashcraft pretty soon and the urgency on Lodolo is probably less.
I will remain cautiously optimistic that Abbott gets a few reasonably important starts for the Reds this summer but I don't even imagine how they expect to slot him into the rotation before July. There's just no urgency for that.

Upgrading the competition will tell a lot of stories on Abbott, and the next person we need to be watching is Richardson. In a half-dozen starts against that league, he might be ready for some Batland fun.

Of course, we still have to place Hunter Strickland somewhere.

oh no

[Bourgeois Zee]

In a half-dozen starts against that league, he might be ready for some Batland fun.

No chance, that.

He's on the 40-man roster, but unless they plan on making him a reliever, there's next to no chance that he's a Bat before September at the earliest.

Even then, he'd be the most aggressively pushed prospect in Redland for as long as I could remember, should that happen.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

No chance, that.

He's on the 40-man roster, but unless they plan on making him a reliever, there's next to no chance that he's a Bat before September at the earliest.

Even then, he'd be the most aggressively pushed prospect in Redland for as long as I could remember, should that happen.

September is all but the end of the season for Triple-A, but in any case, whatever projections we have as fans are dependent on variables that only make sense if we want them to. But that being the case, being a reliever isn't the end of his career if it's only for 20 days or so. Doesn't this depend on why he's in Daytona and not Chattanooga? I was of the belief that it was 'warm weather' more than his skill set.