Early Thoughts & Notes

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I have some muddled thoughts on the minors -- such as, seeing as how the AA pitchers so far are dominating. That's not surprising, but it's an example of AA pitchers facing AA hitters. I realize these guys need time to walk before they can run, but I am also of the belief that the best AA pitchers ought to be pitching against AAA hitters. I don't care if they win and I don't buy into the "mental" issues that come with getting bonked out of a game.

Abbott can throw a half-dozen low-hit, high-K games against AA hitters and prove he belongs in a higher classification. Or you could just put him there and he has a level of experience that gets him to GABP a year sooner.

As for hitters, that same logic does not apply. Those guys would not benefit by moving up the same way pitchers would.

Catchers also need to learn slowly. The leap from amateur to pro ball for a catcher is exceedingly steeper.

[Reds Freak]

I have some muddled thoughts on the minors -- such as, seeing as how the AA pitchers so far are dominating. That's not surprising, but it's an example of AA pitchers facing AA hitters. I realize these guys need time to walk before they can run, but I am also of the belief that the best AA pitchers ought to be pitching against AAA hitters. I don't care if they win and I don't buy into the "mental" issues that come with getting bonked out of a game.

Abbott can throw a half-dozen low-hit, high-K games against AA hitters and prove he belongs in a higher classification. Or you could just put him there and he has a level of experience that gets him to GABP a year sooner.

As for hitters, that same logic does not apply. Those guys would not benefit by moving up the same way pitchers would.

Catchers also need to learn slowly. The leap from amateur to pro ball for a catcher is exceedingly steeper.

Interesting. That's opposite of the standard "challenge thy hitters, coddle thy pitchers" mantra usually preached.

Abbott is an interesting example because he completely dominated high-A to start the season in 2022. He was brought up to Chattanooga in May and was up and down with an ERA in the 4s or 5s. Then he seemed to find something in the last few weeks of the AA season. I'll be curious to see if he follows a similar pattern this year - dominates AA for a month and then heads to Louisville where he needs some time to find his way.

I'm also more bullish on Stoudt than most on this board. Barring a veteran MOR signing, I'm hoping the last two rotation spots in Cincinnati at the start of 2024 are two from the group of Abbott, Stoudt, Phillips, and Williamson.

[Bourgeois Zee]

More Early Thoughts and Notes:

Louisville
- Not sure what Matt McLain has left to prove. He's cut his K rate (23.7%) and improved his BA while still maintaining an excellent BB rate (11.9%). He's stealing bases and hitting for power-- top 10 in both HR and SB in the International League. That said, he's got perhaps two of the Reds' top performers ahead of him, in India and Steer, and Barrero, who seems like he might have figured out some stuff. He's 23-- I'm guessing if he continues to hit at a 140 wRC+ in AAA, Cincinnati will move him up. It's good to see that he's shown some improvement from last season. Development is key, and the Reds have several guys who, early in the season, look like they've made some strides. McLain is one of those.

- Speaking of development, Chuckie Robinson is on an absolute tear. He's not on the 40-man roster, nor is he going to be. The Reds have three catchers and basically acquired those three catchers in order to keep Chuckie Robinson from playing at the major league level. But he's mashing. This isn't (yet another) post decrying that strategy, but it does point out that guys get better at their own pace. Robinson might be an option for another squad, but he's almost assuredly a AAA warrior for the entirety of 2023. Enjoy him, as I suspect it's the last you'll see of him in a Reds uniform.

- Spincinnati has been a thing since Castillo and company first found Grip. RPMs is, I suspect, one of the analytics Red cross-checkers pay attention to as they determine who to draft/ acquire. An unfortunate by-product of this philosophy is the volume of free passes given. In Louisville, only six pitchers have BB/9 below four. 10, otoh, have a BAA of .231 or lower. There's a trade-off, certainly-- but there are certainly times when I wish they'd just. throw. strikes.

- The Bats' bullpen has been really, really bad. Taking Sims (who's been... fine), Legumina (again, fine), and Santillan (okay, then poor, then injured) for major league (or IL) spots by the end of April will weaken it further. That might be the time to really clean house and bring up a lot of AA guys as options. Eduardo Salazar is old, spent last year in AA, and has just transitioned to the pen this year. He might be a guy. Ditto Carson Spiers, who I still like in a Scott Sullivan type middle relief role. With the addition of Sims, Legumina, and Santillan plus the hopeful health of Antone in the second half, the Reds might be able to cobble together another decent pen by the time the season's over. I'd love to see them actually be proactive and cobble one that's good from the get-go. But that'd require cash. Sigh.

- I still like Levi Stoudt. In his last start, I charted 14 pitches that tracked as strikes that were called balls. That game might have been the worst professionally umpired game I've ever seen. The amount of missed strikes were, to me, breath-taking. I'm going to wait before castigating Stoudt. I'm hoping you might as well. On the other hand, feel free to rip into Brandon Williamson. He needs to move to the pen now. First time through the order, Williamson's given up two runs (one earned) in three games and 7 innings. After that, the wheels fall off-- and they fall off quickly. Not sure what the Reds are waiting for, frankly.

- Chase Anderson is exactly the type of starter the Dodgers sign, call up in mid-May, and see win 8 games and put up a 3.75 ERA until they acquire someone else's dominant starter in his place. Just saying.

Chattanooga
- The Lookouts peripherals suck. Of their regulars, exactly two-- Noelvi Marte and Allan Cerda-- have wRC+ above league average. (Marte's within a whisker of league average too.) Why are they good? Because that pitching staff is solid. More than solid, really. Abbott has been lights out, of course. But Andy Fisher, off-season acquisition Jake Wong, and Spencer Stockton haven't yet given up runs either. (Small sample here-- 15 innings total.) All three are old. All three should move up when the need arises in Louisville. If not them, Eduardo Salazar. Better yet, move Williamson to AAA relief in place of Legumina. Bring up Abbott to start in his stead.

- Joe Boyle has a 3.38 ERA this year in AA. I remain fascinated by Boyle. He pitches backwards from every other prospect I've watched. His stuff is ridiculous-- the fastball has movement on its movement, and the slider breaks three feet. I'd never swing, were I hitting against him. And yet... there's hope. His last outing was four innings long-- two walks and 9 Ks. I'd highly recommend everyone go watch him, if only to see the modern-day equivalent of Nike LaLoosh.

- Still waiting on Daniel Vellojin to break out. Sigh. That was one of my breakout sleeper candidates. Looks like he's still sleeping. So's Christian Roa. What a horrible, no-good, very-bad seasonal debut. Nowhere to go but up. (Or, y'know, out of baseball.)

Dayton
- Blake Dunn is carrying the Dragons, but he's not carrying them very far. It's tough to win when your two best offensive prospects and would-be stars are out. Arroyo and Allen are the table-setters too. That's a lot to deal with this early in a season. But Dunn might be the sneaky-good beneficiary of those injuries. Not only does he get more time in the OF, he also gets to hit higher in the order That, in turn, lets him use his (very good) speed and aggressiveness to its full effect. The power is icing on the prospective cake. Not sure if he's anything more than a solid player, but he's a great story, regardless. This early, I'm all-in on the good stories.

- Thomas Farr, Jose Acuna, and Julian Aguiar look like they've got this High-A thing figured out. Farr should-- this is his second go-round in the league. He's probably ticketed for the AA rotation when Abbott gets bumped up. (Speaking of, everyone with me: Williamson-to-the-pen,Abbott-to-AAA,Farr-to-AA!) Aguiar's shown his stuff after being a late-round (12th) pick from Cypress College, a California Junior College pretty adept at developing their guys. Acuna's the guy here, though. Kid's just 20 and High A hasn't phased him one bit. Really, really good to see.

- The Reds drafted Trey Faltine last year in the 7th round. I'm still trying to figure out why. He's on the struggle bus big time. His .317 OPS is where putrid goes to throw up. I'm officially a bit worried about Javier Rivera as well. He mowed them down in Daytona last year, then after getting the bump, found some tough sledding. This year, it's more of the same. He needs a good game. (Faltine needs a good week.)

- Hoping to hear an update on Chase Petty soon. Someone along the lines of he's been throwing for a month in Arizona and will soon join the Dragons. The longer this drags on, the more worried I become about real injuries.

Daytona
- What happened, Tortugas? You were caliente. Now, muy frijo. Alas. It doesn't help that Collier and Jorge, arguably their two top run producers, have missed time. Still, the numbers look positively dominant, offensively and defensively.

- Leonardo Balcazar is still mashing. .333/ .529/ .542/ 1.071. From a SS/2B. (No errors so far this season too.) 10 BBs against 6 Ks. (That's a 17.6 K%, fwiw.) There's nothing not to love about his numbers so far this year. Oh yeah, he's 18 until June 17th. Super excited about all that talent in Daytona, but this guy has perpetually flown under the radar. Two years ago, he was killing the ball in the Dominican until a dive the last week or so of the season tanked his BA. Last year, he went .322/ .411/ .476/ .886 in 169 PAs. I'm guessing he's in Daytona for the entirety of the season, no matter what. Edwin Arroyo is ahead of him, and he's 19-- that kid's not going anywhere (especially now that he's dinged up). That's good and bad. He should put up some good numbers, but he's not going to get the helium other prospects might.

For example, Cam Collier or Sal Stewart, if they mash, might get that bump to Daytona. The only thing standing in their way right now is Austin Callahan's .290 OPS. (No, that's not a typo.) Well, that and the fact that neither has had 50 PAs as a professional yet. Carlos Jorge has a more difficult path as a 2B, as Tyler Callihan is ahead of him. Still, if Callihan moves up to Chattanooga, you can bet Jorge's got the inside track on Dayton (even at age 19). But Balcazar's got Arroyo in Dayton, Marte and Torres in AA, McLain in AAA, and EDLC soon to play... somewhere. The inn is full. So full, in fact, Balcazar and Victor Acosta (himself hitting well this year, at a near 900 OPS) are time-sharing SS right now in Low A.

- 18 prospects have thrown pitches off the Daytona mound this season already, including 8 starters. Only Lyon Richardson has started more than one game. Looks like a piggyback system once again. That makes it harder to gauge who's really impressive and who's just smoke and mirrors-- at least from the outside. So far, Richardson is dominant. I'm guessing he's the first guy to move up. He should go up when (all together now) Williamson goes to the pen, Abbott moves up to AAA, Farr moves to Chattanooga, and Richardson goes to Dayton. (If we say it often enough, perhaps we can wish it into being.)

- Jared Lyons looks interesting. A senior sign out of George Mason, he stunk on ice for two years before finding his stuff as a junior. Then he stunk again as a senior. The Reds obviously saw something they liked and drafted him in the 14th round. He's a short guy with a slightly below average fastball (91/94), curve (78/80), and nascent change up (84/87). He pitched well in the Cape and has been outstanding so far in limited innings as a professional. He's likely a guy who puts up really good numbers against inexperienced kids, then struggles as better prospects catch up to his stuff, but he's one to watch, at any rate. Keep an eye out.

[membengal]

Jose Barrero should not be any roadblock for McLain. His OPS+ this year is 61. He projects for a sub .600 OPS. His glove has been...spotty. It would be nutty to hold McLain down for Barrero.

[icehole3]

Joe Boyle was cooking in Chattanooga

https://twitter.com/RedsOnTheRise/st...84055550722048

[Bourgeois Zee]

Joe Boyle was cooking in Chattanooga

https://twitter.com/RedsOnTheRise/st...84055550722048

Yeah, I watch that and see the wipeout slider and the ridiculous fastball. (There were a couple changeups/ sweepers in there too, if I'm not mistaken.) Upper 90s with two-plane break. Hard to pick up too. That's baseball porn.

I cain't quit you, Joe Boyle. I don't know if I ever could.

[mth123]

I'm all in on Williamson to the bullpen, Abbott to AAA and Farr to AA.

Jose Acuna is my favorite pitching prospect at the moment. I'm always leery of results at low levels, but he's my pick to rise quickly up the ladder.

Wait and see on everything else. It's still really early. I think the Reds will give Barrero more time and keep McLain in AAA for now. They may make a move when EDLC comes back and takes over at SS in AAA. Weaver and Sims are going to be activated soon. The pen guys have been OK lately. In the name of the youth movement, I'd like to see Cruz and Herget be the ones to go, but they've pitched well enough (Herget especially) to stay. Farmer has probably pitched the worst, but did well yesterday and the Reds brought him back after a solid job last year. I doubt they'd let him go this soon. I hope Legimina stays ahead of the 30 somethings, but I'm guessing he goes back down.

[JCM11]

Boyle just has the look of a dominant back end bull pen guy to me. I could see him being a right handed Andrew Miller. Miller was a 6'7 SP that had control issues and never put it together as a SP. His peak run as a RP was low 2's ERA and around 15 k/9. If we could get close to those numbers from Boyle as a RP to me that's more valuable than a SP who struggles to go 5 innings every start due to control and pitch count. Maybe he puts it together as a SP and I get giving him a shot. However he turns 24 this year and if he hasn't pitched well enough to get bumped up to AAA as a SP by year's end it's time for the BP.

[mth123]

Boyle just has the look of a dominant back end bull pen guy to me. I could see him being a right handed Andrew Miller. Miller was a 6'7 SP that had control issues and never put it together as a SP. His peak run as a RP was low 2's ERA and around 15 k/9. If we could get close to those numbers from Boyle as a RP to me that's more valuable than a SP who struggles to go 5 innings every start due to control and pitch count. Maybe he puts it together as a SP and I get giving him a shot. However he turns 24 this year and if he hasn't pitched well enough to get bumped up to AAA as a SP by year's end it's time for the BP.

I hesitate to say this because the control needs to get better, but I see Boyle and Williamson possibly becoming Rob Dibble and Norm Charlton. Toss out a couple of pitches that they have the most trouble with, forget working through a batting order 2 or 3 times and go hard with your best stuff for an inning or two and that could improve really quickly. You are also more likely to get guys to chase your stuff out of the zone when you face them 2 or 3 times per year as opposed to 2 or 3 times per game.

IMO, the Reds are holding these guys back because of the uncertainty of the 2 black holes in the rotation. They need starters in reserve, so the move to the pen is postponed. The failure to adequately address the rotation is hurting the entire staff IMO.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I'm all in on Williamson to the bullpen, Abbott to AAA and Farr to AA.

Jose Acuna is my favorite pitching prospect at the moment. I'm always leery of results at low levels, but he's my pick to rise quickly up the ladder.

Wait and see on everything else. It's still really early. I think the Reds will give Barrero more time and keep McLain in AAA for now. They may make a move when EDLC comes back and takes over at SS in AAA. Weaver and Sims are going to be activated soon. The pen guys have been OK lately. In the name of the youth movement, I'd like to see Cruz and Herget be the ones to go, but they've pitched well enough (Herget especially) to stay. Farmer has probably pitched the worst, but did well yesterday and the Reds brought him back after a solid job last year. I doubt they'd let him go this soon. I hope Legimina stays ahead of the 30 somethings, but I'm guessing he goes back down.

If you just need somebody who can grin through a 35-pitch inning, you hang onto Cruz. He gets no more chances after he "Simon-izes." With the unpredictable back end of this pitching staff, you have to have a pitcher like Cruz who maybe can tell his grandchildren he was a really amazing guy and actually struck out the entire Dodgers team once. Or he plays to a 7.82 lifetime ERA. I think Herget has earned another month's worth of big league meal money.

[mth123]

If you just need somebody who can grin through a 35-pitch inning, you hang onto Cruz. He gets no more chances after he "Simon-izes." With the unpredictable back end of this pitching staff, you have to have a pitcher like Cruz who maybe can tell his grandchildren he was a really amazing guy and actually struck out the entire Dodgers team once. Or he plays to a 7.82 lifetime ERA. I think Herget has earned another month's worth of big league meal money.

The reds have a whole bullpen full of pitchers like Cruz. None of Law, Farmer, Cruz, Herget, Gibaut, SanMartin or Young are established big leaguers or particularly young. They can get rid of two or three in the name of getting younger and still have plenty of old guys to ride hard and put up wet. This is a team playing for 2025 at this point. None of these 30ish relievers will have any role on that team. Time to get the feet wet of ones who will. I'd start with Legumina at 25 (almost 26) and hopefully Williamson later. I'd keep Young around and probably Gibaut. I'd keep SanMartin, the youngest of that group, at least until another lefty is ready. All the others are temps filling a role for now.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The reds have a whole bullpen full of pitchers like Cruz. None of Law, Farmer, Cruz, Herget, Gibaut, SanMartin or Young are established big leaguers or particularly young. They can get rid of two or three in the name of getting younger and still have plenty of old guys to ride hard and put up wet.

It's not about age-- it's about years of control.

[mth123]

It's not about age-- it's about years of control.

It’s also about age. If you’re in your 30s and still not an established major leaguer, it won’t be long until the reason becomes obvious. The Reds are playing for the future. At lest a few of the guys out there should actually have a future.

[Bourgeois Zee]

It’s also about age. If you’re in your 30s and still not an established major leaguer, it won’t be long until the reason becomes obvious. The Reds are playing for the future. At lest a few of the guys out there should actually have a future.

Nah. This can be said about the majority of players-- in their 20s or 30s.

The future they're playing for is 2024 or 2025. Guys who are 32 now will be 34 then. Relievers are almost always just as effective at 34 as they are at 32.

[mth123]

Nah. This can be said about the majority of players-- in their 20s or 30s.

The future they're playing for is 2024 or 2025. Guys who are 32 now will be 34 then. Relievers are almost always just as effective at 34 as they are at 32.

Except these guys have a track record of not being effective, that's why they aren't established. The warts will show soon enough, not when they are 34.