Early Thoughts & Notes

[Kc61]

Could be wrong but I doubt McLain will be in Cincy until mid-season. Unless forced by injury. Not enough AAA exposure yet. Reds will want him to adjust as AAA pitchers get a book on him.

But I do think McLain has a good chance to be Reds next shortstop. He’s a solid defender as I understand. DeLaCruz is tall for a SS, we’ll see if his position moves.

On relievers, I’m sure Reds would like more young hard throwers but I don’t see the doors being knocked down. It’ll be gradual, as guys prove themselves. Replacements will work in one by one.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Except these guys have a track record of not being effective, that's why they aren't established. The warts will show soon enough, not when they are 34.

"Established" is one of those words that's impossible to define. They've established themselves as major leaguers. They can provide depth. They're good enough to keep if nothing else comes around that's better. The Reds are unlikely to pay for anything resembling "established," so they're likely what we'll have.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

Except these guys have a track record of not being effective, that's why they aren't established. The warts will show soon enough, not when they are 34.

I think we set the bar pretty high on what should be considered effective.
No relief pitcher is going to hang a zero every inning and all of them are going to get beat with men on base.
Big league hitters are pretty good.
To that end, Gibaut has been quite effective if not spectacular. Again, should his ERA be 0.00 with no runners left on?
I thought Herget, in small sample, was more than sufficient for his outings.

The issue as i see it with the bullpen narrative is that every game is decided by a bullpen. Unless a rare shutout happens sometime in June, the odds of a CG by anybody now is almost like hitting 4 homers in a game. They talk about it on the news.
We just can't keep blaming "the bullpen" without actually being specific.
Throwing 5 innings of shutout ball gets dismissed as non-important if the guy coming in for the 9th coughs up the game. We have to have some specifics about "the bullpen." I always hope for more than that, but it always comes back to the same thing -- our bullpen sucks.
Which part of it sucks?
Well, all of it, because it's easier than ... you know, relying on statistics.

[Kingspoint]

I'm surprised at how anemic our AAA and AA clubs have been so far on both sides of the plate. I didn't really expect the pitching to improve too much as we didn't address it very much in the off-season, but we certainly addressed the hitting and it's been surprising so far, the results.

[mth123]

I think we set the bar pretty high on what should be considered effective.
No relief pitcher is going to hang a zero every inning and all of them are going to get beat with men on base.
Big league hitters are pretty good.
To that end, Gibaut has been quite effective if not spectacular. Again, should his ERA be 0.00 with no runners left on?
I thought Herget, in small sample, was more than sufficient for his outings.

The issue as i see it with the bullpen narrative is that every game is decided by a bullpen. Unless a rare shutout happens sometime in June, the odds of a CG by anybody now is almost like hitting 4 homers in a game. They talk about it on the news.
We just can't keep blaming "the bullpen" without actually being specific.
Throwing 5 innings of shutout ball gets dismissed as non-important if the guy coming in for the 9th coughs up the game. We have to have some specifics about "the bullpen." I always hope for more than that, but it always comes back to the same thing -- our bullpen sucks.
Which part of it sucks?
Well, all of it, because it's easier than ... you know, relying on statistics.

I’m not talking about what they’ve done for 5 to 10 meaningless innings in 2023. When a guy is 32 and he’s still a rookie, his entire career says he hasn’t been effective enough for some team to give him a chance by now. Every team is always looking for relievers and no team in baseball thought these guys were good enough to stick in their bullpen? The years of control that has been suggested as primary importance are meaningless for a guy like that. We’ll be lucky for those guys to last another month. It’s ok to have a couple of those to abuse and eat innings. The Reds have seven of them. This is a team building for the future. Time to get some of this dead wood off the roster and use some younger guys with more upside who could possibly be a solution for three or four years as opposed to three or four weeks.

[icehole3]

HECTOR RODRIGUEZ LEAVES DEAD CENTER! A solo shot trims the deficit to 7-5 in the 6th!

https://twitter.com/daytonatortugas/...83325450031107

[icehole3]

Michael Siani with a grand slam (2)

[Bourgeois Zee]

I’m not talking about what they’ve done for 5 to 10 meaningless innings in 2023. When a guy is 32 and he’s still a rookie, his entire career says he hasn’t been effective enough for some team to give him a chance by now. Every team is always looking for relievers and no team in baseball thought these guys were good enough to stick in their bullpen? The years of control that has been suggested as primary importance are meaningless for a guy like that. We’ll be lucky for those guys to last another month. It’s ok to have a couple of those to abuse and eat innings. The Reds have seven of them. This is a team building for the future. Time to get some of this dead wood off the roster and use some younger guys with more upside who could possibly be a solution for three or four years as opposed to three or four weeks.

This is an extremely dated way of looking at player acquisition.

If you abide by this philosophy, you don't even look at Justin Turner, Melvin Mora, or Joe Nathan. Hall of Famer Dazzy Vance? Still toiling away in the Independent Leagues.

The Tampa Rays have also done it. Andrew Kittredge is the Ray's most dominant relief arm. He's an All-Star. Last year, he was a 31-year-old who went for a 1.88 ERA. In year's past, he was an up-and-down guy who couldn't ever carve out a role. Seattle let him go for nothing. In your estimation, because he was relegated to the minors until relatively late in his career, he's a waste. There are players like him on nearly every team in baseball-- and several on the best teams in baseball. Springs was one of those guys who wasn't effective until age 28. Then he blossomed into one of the best pitchers on the planet. Shawn Armstrong was much the same (though he hasn't blossomed quite as much). The modern-day Dodgers built their relief corps depth on the old guys who some jabronis on message boards think can't be effective. The Billy Beane A's did much the same thing.

[Bourgeois Zee]

HECTOR RODRIGUEZ LEAVES DEAD CENTER! A solo shot trims the deficit to 7-5 in the 6th!

https://twitter.com/daytonatortugas/...83325450031107

Hector Rodriguez leads the Florida State League in HR.

That's a sentence I never thought I'd type.

[JCM11]

That Naquin for Hector Rodriguez and Jose Acuna trade is looking like an absolute fleecing.

[Sea Ray]

This is an extremely dated way of looking at player acquisition.

If you abide by this philosophy, you don't even look at Justin Turner, Melvin Mora, or Joe Nathan. Hall of Famer Dazzy Vance? Still toiling away in the Independent Leagues.

The Tampa Rays have also done it. Andrew Kittredge is the Ray's most dominant relief arm. He's an All-Star. Last year, he was a 31-year-old who went for a 1.88 ERA. In year's past, he was an up-and-down guy who couldn't ever carve out a role. Seattle let him go for nothing. In your estimation, because he was relegated to the minors until relatively late in his career, he's a waste. There are players like him on nearly every team in baseball-- and several on the best teams in baseball. Springs was one of those guys who wasn't effective until age 28. Then he blossomed into one of the best pitchers on the planet. Shawn Armstrong was much the same (though he hasn't blossomed quite as much). The modern-day Dodgers built their relief corps depth on the old guys who some jabronis on message boards think can't be effective. The Billy Beane A's did much the same thing.

This has been talked about and it was pretty much decided that the last re-tread veterans that worked out for the Reds pitching staff were Dan Straily and Alfredo Simon. It doesn't work out very often

[*BaseClogger*]

That Naquin for Hector Rodriguez and Jose Acuna trade is looking like an absolute fleecing.

Still can't believe they got anything of value in return for Naquin, who isn't even on an MLB roster at the moment.

[RedTeamGo!]

Now Now, don't forget the Mets also got Phillip Real Deal Diehl in that trade

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I’m not talking about what they’ve done for 5 to 10 meaningless innings in 2023. When a guy is 32 and he’s still a rookie, his entire career says he hasn’t been effective enough for some team to give him a chance by now. Every team is always looking for relievers and no team in baseball thought these guys were good enough to stick in their bullpen? The years of control that has been suggested as primary importance are meaningless for a guy like that. We’ll be lucky for those guys to last another month. It’s ok to have a couple of those to abuse and eat innings. The Reds have seven of them. This is a team building for the future. Time to get some of this dead wood off the roster and use some younger guys with more upside who could possibly be a solution for three or four years as opposed to three or four weeks.

If you are arguing that Fernando Cruz doesn't belong on a competitive big-league team, I will hold up both hands and agree with you. If there are better options that are being ignored or dismissed or overlooked, oddly -- one wonders how that can be obvious to almost everyone except the people who are paid to know that.
Yeah, years of control over Ian Gibaut's contract seems like asking me if I want to renew the warranty on my 12-year-old car. What we are looking for in pitchers like that is predictability based on past performance. Gibaut is more likely to give me a better inning than some kid I dragged in from Wichita because he struck out 11 guys in a row in the NBC nationals 2 years ago.

The Reds do have a pretty lazy approach to stocking its big-league roster and one assumes that's a decision handed down by people who control the team's finances. If, as we assume, it's the Castellinis, then they have hired a lot of people who convinced them that they can win with these guys.

As we know, that isn't working and will never work. It never did, even if we go back to the years when teams like the Browns existed, or the Philadelphia A's or Boston Braves.

But it's also harder to find 7 pitchers who are league-elite. If a team has one, they are likely to want to keep him. Getting one or two is possible and, dammit, we had two of them -- Sims and Antone -- and pffffffffffffffffffft ... they were replaced by the guys we have now.

Relievers are easy to find, harder to evaluate and mostly are replaceable after a year or two. Fernando Cruz was supposed to give the Reds 12 innings of baseball. The expiration date is on the side of his cap.

[Kc61]

I’m not talking about what they’ve done for 5 to 10 meaningless innings in 2023. When a guy is 32 and he’s still a rookie, his entire career says he hasn’t been effective enough for some team to give him a chance by now. Every team is always looking for relievers and no team in baseball thought these guys were good enough to stick in their bullpen? The years of control that has been suggested as primary importance are meaningless for a guy like that. We’ll be lucky for those guys to last another month. It’s ok to have a couple of those to abuse and eat innings. The Reds have seven of them. This is a team building for the future. Time to get some of this dead wood off the roster and use some younger guys with more upside who could possibly be a solution for three or four years as opposed to three or four weeks.

Reds must consider a wide group of potential players. For example, older players, those from international leagues, those coming off injured periods. Reds don’t spend much - they need to look under every rock for good players.

That said, the Reds’ front office must evaluate ability. They can’t hire every player who has ever played baseball. But they need to look at the individual and not draw too many conclusions from the path he’s had to take.