Noelvi Marte:
Noelvi Marte:
What would you say.....ya do here?
Edwin Arroyo's first homer of 2023 was DESTROYED
https://twitter.com/RedsOnTheRise/st...68100029743105
texasdave (04-22-2023)
He seems to have a pretty big hole in that swing.Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Noelvi Marte:
"In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
-Walt Whitman
Just from watching him in the spring games, he seems to try to pull everything. He needs the all important this is RF and it’s ok to hit the ball there lesson.
Watching the minors this year is interesting about 16 percent of the time.
The Bats are awful with some rare exceptions of offense against pitching that could be defined something we used to recognize. I get the sense that the dugout is filled with guys who are zealous about the game in sign language or by passing notes under the desk. The mascot hangs out under the tunnel behind home plate, apparently tired from walking onto the field with a 4-year-old the inning before.
But the International League is where we have to start.
We can leave there as soon as we want. The Southern League is so top-heavy with pitching that it's hard to tell which guy is a prospect or which lineup is stocked with players who are hitting .138 in quest of a .276 OPS. Every starter is averaging more than a K per inning. Relievers are interesting.
The low minors have been fun at times in such small sample and uneven streaming. Kids in their teens from the Caribbean islands -- that's an adjustment off the field, for sure. Probably in the clubhouse as well.
I am not a fan of the 6-game series for traditional reasons and I need some proof that it's helping the pitchers who are facing the same hitters 30 times in one week. If hitters are adjusting, it isn't showing up in the data.
One assumes the coaching staffs are not too dense or obtuse to factor that in.
Last edited by j.u.FAIRFIIELD; 04-22-2023 at 11:21 AM.
Quantum computing promises to be a revolutionary tool, making short work of equations that classical computers would struggle to ever complete. Yet the workhorse of the quantum device, known as a qubit, is a delicate object prone to collapsing.
Solid start for Joe Boyle tonight - 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 12 K. 100 pitches, 56 for strikes.
"In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
-Walt Whitman
icehole3 (04-23-2023),Old school 1983 (04-23-2023)
He's got a 1.98 ERA so far this season in AA. That puts him at a 3.86 ERA overall in 11 AA appearances.
Boyle continues to be really, really hard to hit and really wild. That said, he's improved in his short stint this season over last year. His BB rate, K rate, WHiP, and H/9 are all trending in the right direction, and his 2022 AA HR rate seems to be an abormality from a small sample.
Among he, Abbott, and Phillips, I suspect the Reds will gamble on creating two SP in 2024 or 2025.
I am not as high on Boyle as you are, although he has a lot to like. I think his mechanics are wonky. He does have a nice repertoire and maybe he just needs more work to get better. But of the pitchers in the system, he's not in my top 3 just yet.
Quantum computing promises to be a revolutionary tool, making short work of equations that classical computers would struggle to ever complete. Yet the workhorse of the quantum device, known as a qubit, is a delicate object prone to collapsing.
He's in the top 3 from the upper minors, for sure. (Low bar, that.) Notice that I said he's one of the three prospects most likely to be a starter in 2024 or 2025. That doesn't mean he's a better prospect than, say, Chase Petty or perhaps Jose Acuna.
I'm also not sure it's wonkiness that's causing his issues. It certainly doesn't help that he's 6'7" and a bit unathletic, but it's stuff AND size that contibute to the perceived wonkiness of his pitches. If you slow it down, his head, stride, and arm slot are almost always in synch and consistent from pitch to pitch. But the ball tends to sail, dive, and dip at extraordinary measures. He's learned to be effective pitching, in essence, backwards-- he refuses to give in and throw the ball with less stuff. That causes the control issues, but it limits hits. Others have argued that this style will eventually need to be curtailed.
Maybe it will.
Of course, those same posters insisted he'd struggle in AA, and it looks like he's figuring that out, so maybe they're wrong. We'll certainly see. He's not going anywhere.
Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 04-22-2023 at 10:15 PM.
Yeah, he's already a step ahead of the rag-arms filling out the rotation in Louisville.
Quantum computing promises to be a revolutionary tool, making short work of equations that classical computers would struggle to ever complete. Yet the workhorse of the quantum device, known as a qubit, is a delicate object prone to collapsing.
I still like Stoudt and Williamson as relief arms-- Stoudt might be a BOR guy too, if he can find that pitch mix/ tunneling work. There's value there, I think.
It's rare for a system to develop three relatively high-end SP at one level in one season-- that's just what the Reds are doing.
They're also developing three or four guys (assuming Petty comes back healthy-- a big if) in High A, fwiw.
Acuna looks like the real deal and a MOR SP. He's super young and eating up hitters in Dayton. That was a super aggressive promotion, fwiw. The Reds obviously like what they see out of him.
Julian Aguiar's numbers are, so far this season, are just as good if not better. This, after a season wherein he was largely exceptional. His scouting report indicates Aguiar's got a solid three-pitch mix-- low to mid 90s fastball, change-up, and slider that can all flash above average. BA quoted talent evaluators that believed he had projection enough to bump his fastball up to triple digits. That's a heady mix right there. Right now, his numbers are a bit ahead of others because of his feel for that change-up. Kids aren't used to consistent offspeed stuff (which he seems to have). AA will be a proving ground of sorts for him, I think.
Thomas Farr is a bit old for High A, but he shouldn't be forgotten here. Nearly 24, he's come out this season and dominated a league he largely struggled at last year. He's almost assuredly getting the bump sooner rather than later to Chattanooga. (I think he moves up when Abbott does. A healthy Petty can take his spot in Dayton's rotation pretty easily-- or perhaps Lyon Richardson can move up. Or both.) Farr had a good fastball and an above average curve coming out of South Carolina. He, like virtually every other pitcher in baseball, needs to find a third pitch. I like him as a middle relief guy right now, but if he does find that third offering, as a BOR guy.
The Reds' development strategy over the past five to seven years has been to focus on what works for the pitcher, rather than what the pitcher might need to do to fit into the typical SP mold. For Ashcraft, it was to develop his cutter-- which has crazy movement horizontally and vertically inside and out to either handed batters-- and a solid slider. For Greene, it meant two pitches with side work on a change. For Lodolo, it was working on a four-pitch mix. (Lodolo largely ignores the tunneling craze-- that's probably by design.) There have been some notable successes with that approach and a couple of misses too.
j.u.FAIRFIIELD (04-23-2023)
Nice analysis.
I suppose I have soured a little on Williamson and have left Stoudt off to the side as somebody who slots into the Reds staff later this summer. I think they are at that point and the odds of a "dead arm" somewhere on that staff range from 99-to-99.9 percent.
Thoughts on Ryan Nutof?
Back to Boyle, and this caveats into "high" or "mid" minors, is that Abbott, Phillips and Richardson were my top 3. Honestly didn't think Boyle was even close to that group. I am still a bit leery of Double-A numbers given the overall paucity of hitting in that league. That has to change.
But most of us agree that these guys need to pitch up a notch, and I assume some of that is connected to mundane reasons that are administrative.
But we have what we have. Not much of a look at the "low" minors mainly because I have decided that there are only so many hours to watch baseball. Cleaving my brain on the Bats to get a look at McLain and Elly44, then off to Noogie for Abbott and Noelvi ... too much fun just ignoring the Reds, who are supposed to profit from all this.
A lot of this is a new hobby for me, since I decided in March that I would not follow the Reds as extensively in the future. I am happy I made that choice, although what I want to see with the minor leaguers is different from what I need to see. It's an opportunity.
Then there's college ball. I do soo-soooooo wish they'd go back to wooden bats in the NCAA. My alma mater has a guy with a 1.25 OPS and 14 home runs. Is this guy a prospect? Probably not.
Quantum computing promises to be a revolutionary tool, making short work of equations that classical computers would struggle to ever complete. Yet the workhorse of the quantum device, known as a qubit, is a delicate object prone to collapsing.
Many agree with you.
I suspect three true outcomes boosts guys like Boyle. If guys don't mind striking out and are looking to launch every pitch, it makes sense that pitchers should look to limit hitter attempts to launch everything into orbit. That adjustment can work, I think, if pitchers can induce extremely weak contact and K hitters at an elite level. He's done that at every step of the ladder so far. Most old-school evaluators disagree with me. They assume hitters will adjust. My question is why? Hitters are choosing over and over again that they can't (or won't) adjust to specific pitches, pitchers, or parks. They mostly grip and rip and let the chips fall where they might. In that game, Boyle's got a real shot.
Too, I think dismissing their numbers as largely mirages because of supposed league-wide offensive struggles misses the mark of how dominant they've been. The Southern League's overall OPS is .708. The average WHiP is 1.387, and the average ERA is 4.28. Boyle and Abbott are 4th and 8th in the league in ERA amongst SP. They're 1st and 3rd in Ks. They're both in the top 10 in H/9. They're tops in the league (1 and 2) in K/9-- and it's not particularly close for 3rd. All of those show how dominant they've been-- even in a league wherein pitchers have been better this season, they're two of the better pitchers in the league-- arguably two of the top five.
Not only that, the league isn't a massive outlier in terms of hitting. That .708 OPS is well below 2022's numbers, but pretty close to those in 2019 and 2018. It's also well above the league-wide OPS in the Midwest League and takes the Florida State League's OPS out back and pummels it. (If you want to look at a league wherein you really can't trust the pitching numbers, it's the FSL-- and even those can give you a clue.)
Oh there is no doubt that Abbott is dominant. I think the next time they cut payroll checks, it will be Abbott's last game in Chatty. To elevate Boyle would probably mean having to juggle a couple of rosters, and that might take an extra minute.
But I will also go back to a minor debate we had about the 6-game series -- and I still don't know if it would be different if they played two 3-game sets. That depends, probably, on each organization's agenda for pitching rotations. Hitters, you'd think, would benefit more from seeing the same pitchers twice in one week under identical field conditions.
But it is what it is.
To me, on hitting, the teams don't seem able to put a series of good at-bats together, which might be that there are just enough holes in the lineup. Who we striking out? The Lookouts put Hernandez in to play SS last night and I never saw more pathetic at-bats in my recent memory.
Here and there, as well in the Southern, bullpen inefficiencies might be warping the offensive numbers. That said, the top two pitchers on most of these staffs are probably all headed to Triple-A pretty soon.
So maybe the first 5 innings is where it's at in Double-A, and the rest of it is not. I hope to get more looks at the FSL this week. I am surely no expert.
Last edited by j.u.FAIRFIIELD; 04-23-2023 at 11:53 AM.
Quantum computing promises to be a revolutionary tool, making short work of equations that classical computers would struggle to ever complete. Yet the workhorse of the quantum device, known as a qubit, is a delicate object prone to collapsing.
MLB is experimenting with grippiness of ball in Southern League...
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-to-test...vswHJUatmvo8Xo
Then they'll try a different ball in the second half. How this is affecting the performance/development of Southern League pitchers is TBD....
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
Reply With Quote