Totally Too Soon, unscientific, top 15 prospects update

[mth123]

Heading into May, we've had some guys graduate, some emerge, some get injured and some seemingly fall apart. I have to say, I give heavier weight to guys in the upper levels and I discriminate on the basis of age. Anybody over the age of 26 isn't a prospect and guys old for their levels will be ranked a little lower. This is to get some discussion started on the most interesting aspect of 2023.

1. Elly De La Cruz. He's fallen in my eyes a little, but its too soon to drop him. I think he'll be fine, but probably not a big leaguer until the All Star break or so.

2. Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Guy seems like he can hit anything and while other skills are very important for a position player, the bat is what keeps a guy from being an interchangeable part. No idea of the timing. If Stephenson, doesn't pick-up the pace, I'd make him primary catcher and live with the off days and make CES the full time DH for now. Maile or Casali would be in jeopardy in that scenario.

3. Matt McLain. I think he'll be a good player who can stabilize the middle infield whether he plays SS or 2B. I prefer 2B, but SS probably happens first. I'm guessing after memorial day. Probably early June will be the time to pull the trigger on making a move with Barrero. Either Barrero becomes and IF/OF Utility guy with McLain taking his spot (with an OF going down) or he gets sent back to AAA).

4. Cam Collier. I don't usually rank an A-Ball player this high, but I've heard too much good stuff from too many sources, so he goes here.

5. Andrew Abbott. He might be the first guy recalled. Has been dominant, but we saw a few control issues early in his last start. I'm guessing nerves at the new level.

6. Noelvi Marte. I had him at 1A behind EDLC over the off-season, but several national sites downgrasded him and he hasn't come out smoking. I still think he'll hit, but he's below the top 5 now.

7. Edwin Arroyo. Young and highly rated, but .563 in a very, very, small sample at A+.

8. Jose Acuna. He's a 20-year-old in A+ and has been performing so far. He may rise further if he continues what he's doing. Hopefully a call-up to AA at some point.

9. Blake Dunn. Having the best season of anyone, among the leaders in average, on base, slugging and ops and even has 11 steals in 12 attempts. He's held back a because he's 24 in A+. I hope he moves quickly.

10. TJ Hopkins. A somewhat old minor leaguer (age 26) but having a really good year at AAA. He's another guy along the lines of Freidl and Fraley as an older, somewhat less flashy prospect who could carve out a role on this team during the Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft era. I'd rather see him get a shot than some of the 30 something dead-ends on the roster, even if those older guys are performing OK.

I was going to stop at 10, but decided to go to 15 mostly because I want to learn more about some of these guys from any comments.

11. Carlos Jorge. A 19-year-old second baseman off to a .941 OPS in Daytona and that's following up on .955 in the ACL last year in 154 PAs. I need to know more about him before he jumps in my top 10. Holding him back because he seems like he may be a 2B only guy and he's at a low level where competition is pretty uneven.

12. Leonardo Balcazar. A 19-year-old IF, playing SS mostly at Daytona off to a .897 OPS start follwing an .886 OPS in the ACL in 168 PAs last year. He and Jorge are neck and neck. Balcazar seems to have better positional advantages but Jorge has been a slightly better bat so far. Most of the same comments I made about Jorge apply here.

13. Connor Phillips. Off to a decent, not great, start in AA, but not bad for a guy who turns 22 later this week. His walk history is concerning but he has a lot of Ks and it still holds up at a great ratio over 3 to 1. The concern is whether more advanced hitters will chase less causing the walks to go up and the Ks to drop. Otherwise, he looks pretty solid and he's plenty young for where he is. He may jump higher on this list as the season goes on if he can keep the K:BB ratio above 3.

14. Sal Stewart. Seems like a guy who can hit, but OPS is a pedestrian .727 in a super small sample at Daytona. He's only 19, so he makes the list.

15. Lyon Richardson. 23-year-old who seems a little behind for his age, but all reports say his stuff is hard and nasty and the Reds moved him to AA already. He missed 2020 because of covid and 2022 because of injury, so its understandable that his innings base is still in progress. He's made 5 starts and only thrown 14 innings. The Reds promoted him anyway and I like him better than the other flawed arms in the system.

Honorable Mentions: Julian Aguiar, Javier Rivera, Jacob Hurtubise, Quincy McAfee, Levi Stoudt (as a relief possibility), Brandon Williamson (as a relief possibility) Joe Boyle (because he's such a unicorn the things that I'd normally write him off for don't automatically write him off. Also as a reliever), Chase Petty (pending injury and how he looks when he returns. He may jump way up).

[RedTeamGo!]

EDLC has been absolutely crushing the ball just right at defenders. The exit velos are off the charts.

[Kc61]

I’ll raise a question here. Does it seem like Reds’ draftees are, generally speaking, doing better than guys acquired by trade?

I read that Tampa Bay seldom trades vets for prospects. They prefer trading for more advance players, often already in the majors.

Do teams trade you prospects about whom they have questions internally?

Obviously it’s not all or nothing, CES looks like a good “get.” Just something I’ve wondered about in light of guys like Williamson and Stoudt, slow starters like Marte, Arroyo at the bat. (And injuries like Petty that can happen to anybody.)

[Kc61]

EDLC has been absolutely crushing the ball just right at defenders. The exit velos are off the charts.

So is the strikeout rate off the charts. And with a .318 BABIP, he hasn’t exactly been the most unlucky fella.

Why not just leave it that Elly is a major talent and has just started to play this season. He’s probably still getting his timing back after the layoff. Let’s see how he’s doing in a month. Probably the answer will be “great.”

[Tom Servo]

McLain has definitely put himself back firmly on my map. I liked him as our draft pick and his first season but I was very concerned with how his batting average plummeted last year in Chattanooga and his strikeouts skyrocketed, seemingly selling out for power. What he’s doing in AAA is much more in line with what I expected in terms of base hits, power, and the BB and K rates being in the same ballpark range.

[RustyJ]

6. Noelvi Marte. I had him at 1A behind EDLC over the off-season, but several national sites downgrasded him and he hasn't come out smoking. I still think he'll hit, but he's below the top 5 now.

I found it really interesting that even though he performed well in Dayton after the trade, his stock seemed to be slipping even then. Almost like the spotlight of a blockbuster trade showed some warts that got ignored when he was a shiny new toy.

Not helping matters so far this year. That trade's looking ugly

[JCM11]

I wouldn't make any drastic changes after less than a month of play. Abbott has obviously jumped up due to the insane SO rate. I said before the season I wasn't sold on Marte and he's got a ways to go before being big league ready. I'm not dropping Petty off the face of the earth just because he hasn't pitched yet. Elly could need a whole year in AAA or he could catch fire and be up in a few months. There's still boom or bust potential with him IMO, but the upside is way up there. McLain was never down in my view he had an excellent year last season I just think he wore out a little in his first full year of pro ball. Collier has been banged up a little, and has only 50 PA. He's still easily in my top 3.

Blake Dunn is a 24 year old in A+. He's not cracking my top 20 until he's doing well against AAA pitching(hopefully before age 30 lol). I thought Acuna was underrated last year and he's been excellent so far at age 20 in A+. Arroyo hasn't been that impressive since coming over, but is still only 19.

1. Elly 2. Collier 3. Mclain 4. Abbott 5. CES 6. Arroyo 7. Petty 8. Marte 9. Phillips 10.Carlos Jorge(my pre season breakout pick)

The rest is probably Boyle, Stewart, Acuna, Balcazar, and Richardson.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

Marte is probably a guy who suffered from general Southern League hitting funk syndrome. The pitchers were getting whiffs on almost everyone. Runs production seems to have improved a little there, so as the weather warms, maybe Marte heats up. He doesn't look overmatched.

De La Cruz is just flailing at the moment. I am less worried about that than the general malaise that is the Louisville roster and overall sloth of play. He has looked good at 3B after they moved Lopez to 2B and McLain to SS. Still, the pitching doesn't give these guys a chance to develop an offense. When you are down 9-0 and you haven't reached the 2nd inning, why not just swing for the fences? It's not like you are gonna rally enough to offset the next 6 runs the pitchers give up.

Balcazar is actually a "veteran" minor leaguer despite his age.

[NachoMan]

Granted I've never really grasped the criteria behind these prospect rankings, but if you're gonna do the too-early thing, wouldn't CES have to be #1 with a bullet? He seems like the Joey Votto to the other guys' Jay Bruce.

[0-2 Count]

Granted I've never really grasped the criteria behind these prospect rankings, but if you're gonna do the too-early thing, wouldn't CES have to be #1 with a bullet? He seems like the Joey Votto to the other guys' Jay Bruce.

Agreed. I'm a show-me kind of guy. And, CES is the one showing the most right now. McClain is solid, but not quite at the same level. EDLC will be fine. Just needs some time. If you've had the chance to watch him play in person, the skills are off the chart special.

Beyond those 3, there is no one going to help the team this year. Agree with he original poster in that Hopkins could be serviceable should trades/injuries require someone step up as a 4th-5tth outfielder.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Best/ Hottest Starts to the Season, Prospect Edition:

1. Andrew Abbott
Already moved up. Already showed a pretty solid debut at that level. Completely dominated with ridiculous numbers from the get-go.

2. Blake Dunn
Sure, he's old, but he's got Triple Crown aspirations in High-A at this point. His OBP is .571. The 11 steals in 12 attempts is icing on the CF cake. Dude needs AA like a fat kid needs cake.

3. Christian Encarnacion-Strand
He's been Ruthian, but only for a week. If he did this for a whole month, perhaps the Reds might bring him up. Nah, who am I kidding? No chance of that-- not if it costs a plane ticket.

4. Matt McLain
His season so far has been MVP-like. He's showen both the hit tool and the power, the patience and a better eye at the plate, development and upside. The best of all worlds.

5. Chuckie Robinson
Slight swing adjustment shouldn't come with 400 point bumps in OPS. I do wonder how long this one can last. I love watching it happen. 28-year-old AAAA guys make me happy.

6. Jose Acuna
11th in the Midwest League amongst SP with a 2.60 ERA, he's also the youngest starter who's qualified in the league. Holding out hope that he's the Mets' Jay Buhner and Tyler Naquin is their David Phelps.

7. Carlos Jorge
Sporting a 900+ OPS and proving that he's a legitimate prospect. I love when the guys I like early show out. He's been showing both power and hit tool this season. In the offensive-supressing Florida State League. Yes, please.

8. Leonardo Balcazar
See Jorge, Carlos. Add SS. These two conjure up images of Whitaker and Trammell. Long-time double-play duos who can compliment each other on the baseball field make me happy.

9. Lyon Richardson
Already moved up two levels to AA, he's still only pitching about half a game. Training wheels firmly on, he's still been very, very good. He'd be in the top five if he could pitch 90 pitches in a game, but health is more important right now.

10. Chris McElvain
Lost nearly completely in the Richardson helium, the 2022 8th round Red draftee has nearly matched his numbers in the FSL. He might move up quickly as well. Though this is largely his first taste of pro ball, it couldn't have gone much more smoothly. What's really nice is that McElvain seems to have found some semblance of control. He's cut nearly two BBs from his college numbers while playing in Daytona.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hopkins
Hopkins has been relatively hot since the opening bell of the AAA season. Not sure he's in the Reds' plans, but he's at least making their decisions more difficult. I like his RH bat-- as a corner OF backup (who's also CF-capable), he can perhaps caddy for Fraley for a few months, just to see what he has. If he continues to mash like this in Louisville, he'll get a 40-man roster spot by 2024 at the least.

[KoryMac5]

From all reports McClain's work ethic is off the charts from some of the pods I have listened to...could be why he is continuing to ascend.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I guess I am wondering when we are all in agreement that his name is


McLain

If he's going to be an all-star, we perhaps owe him that.

[KoryMac5]

I guess I am wondering when we are all in agreement that his name is


McLain

If he's going to be an all-star, we perhaps owe him that.

I promoted him and made him an honorary Scotsman with the extra C....

[Benihana]

Heading into May, we've had some guys graduate, some emerge, some get injured and some seemingly fall apart. I have to say, I give heavier weight to guys in the upper levels and I discriminate on the basis of age. Anybody over the age of 26 isn't a prospect and guys old for their levels will be ranked a little lower. This is to get some discussion started on the most interesting aspect of 2023.

1. Elly De La Cruz. He's fallen in my eyes a little, but its too soon to drop him. I think he'll be fine, but probably not a big leaguer until the All Star break or so.

2. Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Guy seems like he can hit anything and while other skills are very important for a position player, the bat is what keeps a guy from being an interchangeable part. No idea of the timing. If Stephenson, doesn't pick-up the pace, I'd make him primary catcher and live with the off days and make CES the full time DH for now. Maile or Casali would be in jeopardy in that scenario.

3. Matt McLain. I think he'll be a good player who can stabilize the middle infield whether he plays SS or 2B. I prefer 2B, but SS probably happens first. I'm guessing after memorial day. Probably early June will be the time to pull the trigger on making a move with Barrero. Either Barrero becomes and IF/OF Utility guy with McLain taking his spot (with an OF going down) or he gets sent back to AAA).

4. Cam Collier. I don't usually rank an A-Ball player this high, but I've heard too much good stuff from too many sources, so he goes here.

5. Andrew Abbott. He might be the first guy recalled. Has been dominant, but we saw a few control issues early in his last start. I'm guessing nerves at the new level.

6. Noelvi Marte. I had him at 1A behind EDLC over the off-season, but several national sites downgrasded him and he hasn't come out smoking. I still think he'll hit, but he's below the top 5 now.

7. Edwin Arroyo. Young and highly rated, but .563 in a very, very, small sample at A+.

8. Jose Acuna. He's a 20-year-old in A+ and has been performing so far. He may rise further if he continues what he's doing. Hopefully a call-up to AA at some point.

9. Blake Dunn. Having the best season of anyone, among the leaders in average, on base, slugging and ops and even has 11 steals in 12 attempts. He's held back a because he's 24 in A+. I hope he moves quickly.

10. TJ Hopkins. A somewhat old minor leaguer (age 26) but having a really good year at AAA. He's another guy along the lines of Freidl and Fraley as an older, somewhat less flashy prospect who could carve out a role on this team during the Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft era. I'd rather see him get a shot than some of the 30 something dead-ends on the roster, even if those older guys are performing OK.

I was going to stop at 10, but decided to go to 15 mostly because I want to learn more about some of these guys from any comments.

11. Carlos Jorge. A 19-year-old second baseman off to a .941 OPS in Daytona and that's following up on .955 in the ACL last year in 154 PAs. I need to know more about him before he jumps in my top 10. Holding him back because he seems like he may be a 2B only guy and he's at a low level where competition is pretty uneven.

12. Leonardo Balcazar. A 19-year-old IF, playing SS mostly at Daytona off to a .897 OPS start follwing an .886 OPS in the ACL in 168 PAs last year. He and Jorge are neck and neck. Balcazar seems to have better positional advantages but Jorge has been a slightly better bat so far. Most of the same comments I made about Jorge apply here.

13. Connor Phillips. Off to a decent, not great, start in AA, but not bad for a guy who turns 22 later this week. His walk history is concerning but he has a lot of Ks and it still holds up at a great ratio over 3 to 1. The concern is whether more advanced hitters will chase less causing the walks to go up and the Ks to drop. Otherwise, he looks pretty solid and he's plenty young for where he is. He may jump higher on this list as the season goes on if he can keep the K:BB ratio above 3.

14. Sal Stewart. Seems like a guy who can hit, but OPS is a pedestrian .727 in a super small sample at Daytona. He's only 19, so he makes the list.

15. Lyon Richardson. 23-year-old who seems a little behind for his age, but all reports say his stuff is hard and nasty and the Reds moved him to AA already. He missed 2020 because of covid and 2022 because of injury, so its understandable that his innings base is still in progress. He's made 5 starts and only thrown 14 innings. The Reds promoted him anyway and I like him better than the other flawed arms in the system.

Honorable Mentions: Julian Aguiar, Javier Rivera, Jacob Hurtubise, Quincy McAfee, Levi Stoudt (as a relief possibility), Brandon Williamson (as a relief possibility) Joe Boyle (because he's such a unicorn the things that I'd normally write him off for don't automatically write him off. Also as a reliever), Chase Petty (pending injury and how he looks when he returns. He may jump way up).

I agree with your top 7, and I probably wouldn’t argue with Acuña either. After that, I’d revert back to offseason lists and pure talent/pedigree. Guys like Petty, Phillips, Stewart, Cabrera etc.

I am very, very high on Collier, but will concede it’s tough to put the 18 year old over three guys totally mashing in AAA right now. Marte is officially concerning, especially as a corner bat.