The Value of the Prospect Group as a Whole

[Brisco]

So with all the excitement we have for the wave of young players making or about to make the Reds roster, I started wondering how many of them can we expect to be real contributors at the major league level.

I did a quick google search for "How many MLB top 100 prospects actually do well in the majors?" and the first link was to this article from 2011 that concluded only 30% of the top 100 would eventually succeed.

https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/...-mlb-prospects

I have not idea if the author used proper analytical methods in this, but if its correct, then Wow! only 30% success for the consensus cream of the crop! (though closer to 40% for position players because the failure rate of pitchers is much higher).

Reds have six players in the top 100... if statistics hold true that means only two of those players will be meaningful contributors at the major league level.

I see lots of discussions in both the Minor league and the ORG that fill the lineup and rotation/pen with more than just two of those prospects. I have seen future lineup predictions that include all of them, actually.

Unless we feel that we are just smarter than MLB, then we would have to also accept the odds are that only 3 of the redszone voted top 10 prospects will ever be meaningful contributors.

I am excited as the next guy to add LED, CES, and Abbott to the comparatively large number of young players that have already made their MLB debuts with the Reds since last August,...(Steer, Lively, Stoudt, Williamson, McLain and I am sure i have forgotten some others)) and i can marshal significant excitement for each of them individually... but as a group i guess i have to accept a significant dollop of realism.

[Bourgeois Zee]

IIRC, that study has already been discussed and is largely woefully out of date.

[fondfoat]

Regardless of the how out of date that study is, the sentiments of Brisco are reasonable

As stated, "but as a group I guess i have to accept a significant dollop of realism."

i think that's fair.

[RedEye]

I would say they will be REALLY lucky if 5 of these guys become cornerstones for the future roster. My take on who those five will be (I'm including the current SP trio as part of the "wave"):

EDLC
McLain
Greene
CES
Marte

[Bourgeois Zee]

I would say they will be REALLY lucky if 5 of these guys become cornerstones for the future roster.

It depends on what you mean by cornerstones.