TJ Hopkins

[Dave C]

I hope this is sarcasm especially after we got to watch Castellanos for two years on a daily basis.

What part? I do actually work in the data analytics/data base programming field. And Steer's defense seems pretty overrated here as well from my casual observation.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm shocked that there are some otherwise knowledgable posters who can't get their heads wrapped around the idea that defense, like offense, is dependent on making plays-- and that sometimes, players "get hot" and alternatively, go into slumps.

Acuna's range, for example, has shrunk due to injuries and filling out. He's a shell of his former self defensively. This is cooborated across every defensive metric in the game. He consistently gets a poor jump on the ball, and he's made errors enough (3 with a .973 fielding percentage) to affect his margins. He was just as poor last year. (His 4 errors was 2nd in MLB among RF.) The year before, however, he was pretty good.

That makes sense to me.

Castellanos, otoh, is just as bad at getting a jump on the ball-- worse, in fact. But he's yet to make an error this season.

At a position wherein nearly every play is made nearly every time, those few mistakes mean a lot. Especially considering how OF errors tend to turn outs into runs.

[CaiGuy]

I'm shocked that there are some otherwise knowledgable posters who can't get their heads wrapped around the idea that defense, like offense, is dependent on making plays-- and that sometimes, players "get hot" and alternatively, go into slumps.

Acuna's range, for example, has shrunk due to injuries and filling out. He's a shell of his former self defensively. This is cooborated across every defensive metric in the game. He consistently gets a poor jump on the ball, and he's made errors enough (3 with a .973 fielding percentage) to affect his margins. He was just as poor last year. (His 4 errors was 2nd in MLB among RF.) The year before, however, he was pretty good.

That makes sense to me.

Castellanos, otoh, is just as bad at getting a jump on the ball-- worse, in fact. But he's yet to make an error this season.

At a position wherein nearly every play is made nearly every time, those few mistakes mean a lot. Especially considering how OF errors tend to turn outs into runs.

Also, around 2 months of data is a really, really small sample size when it comes to defensive metrics.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Also, around 2 months of data is a really, really small sample size when it comes to defensive metrics.

So three errors tend to have an outsized effect on what information we do have.

Right.

[JCM11]

The eye test is #1 for me when looking at defense. You can pull up metrics that make Fraley look ok and others that make him look bad. The deciding factor for me is after watching him play out there I don't think he's very good. He's not Winker or Dunn bad, but based on what I've seen from hundreds of MLB OF over the years he's below average. The frustrating thing with Fraley is he looks pretty fast on the bases, but in the field that speed doesn't seem to translate as well.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The eye test is #1 for me when looking at defense. You can pull up metrics that make Fraley look ok and others that make him look bad. The deciding factor for me is after watching him play out there I don't think he's very good. He's not Winker or Dunn bad, but based on what I've seen from hundreds of MLB OF over the years he's below average. The frustrating thing with Fraley is he looks pretty fast on the bases, but in the field that speed doesn't seem to translate as well.

We disagree.

I'd argue that, unless you're one of the few who scout professionally for a living and spend countless days on the road watching not only outfielders in the Red organization but others as well, your eye test can't see everything that you need to see to make an educated judgment. That's why we invented analytics-- to do the watching for us.

[mth123]

Fraley is fine as long as he stays in LF. I don't like him in CF or RF but I think he's fine in LF and if he platoons with say Senzel, they have the potential to be a very good offensive tandem. Think Bernie Carbo and Hal McRae for those old enough to remember.

[Dave C]

3 more hits for Hopkins tonight. .337 now. What do we do with him?

[Bourgeois Zee]

3 more hits for Hopkins tonight. .337 now. What do we do with him?

RH platoon mate for Fraley if Senzel is dealt-- and given quite a bit of time in RF as well.

If he hits in that role, see if he can handle more PAs.

[Kc61]

We disagree.

I'd argue that, unless you're one of the few who scout professionally for a living and spend countless days on the road watching not only outfielders in the Red organization but others as well, your eye test can't see everything that you need to see to make an educated judgment. That's why we invented analytics-- to do the watching for us.

I’d add that the eye test for defense can be deceiving if you’re watching on television (or computer screen). The camera and screen doesn’t always capture the size of the field, how much running it takes to catch up to the batted ball. To me, the defensive game looks a bit easier on a screen.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I’d add that the eye test for defense can be deceiving if you’re watching on television (or computer screen). The camera and screen doesn’t always capture the size of the field, how much running it takes to catch up to the batted ball. To me, the defensive game looks a bit easier on a screen.

This is what I was trying to say earlier, but you said it better.

We just don't have enough eyeballs to track all the relevant data.

[Dave C]

Hopkins 2-3 and up to .343. I've go no idea why he's hitting 6th in this line up. I'd hit him second. He'd get even more balls to hit.

[Kingspoint]

...and a cup of coffee now.