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Thread: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    So far:

    AAA
    The Good: Graduates to the MLB team include McLain (who's killing it), Williamson, Abbott, Hopkins, and a host of relief arms. Bats are on their way to a winning season-- assuming they can continue their recent dominance. EDLC and CES are two of the best offensive players in the league. EDLC has shown prodigious tools-- consensus is that no prospect in the game is as equally talented across all five tools. They are an offensive force-- and that's with several players who haven't put it together yet. There's still more in the tank, believe it or not. Chuckie Robinson and Pareda are knocking the stuffing out of the ball as a catching tandem. McLain and Hopkins were dominant. Reynolds has an OPS over 900. Lots and lots of offensive punch.

    The Bad: Starting pitching has been decimated by call-ups. Bats have had to resort to several free agents from independent leagues-- with the results you might imagine. Ditto the 'pen. Serious struggles nearly across the board to just throw strikes. Siani is showing power, but a 30 hit tool.

    AA
    The Good: Two Lookouts have already made the show-- Salazar and Abbott. Noelvi Marte has established himself as a legitimate power and MOP candidate in AA. He's among the better prospects in the league. The tacky ball has led to underwhelming numbers across the board, but they might be hiding his breakout. He's showing power, speed, a good hit tool, and a penchant for coming through in the clutch-- best of all, he's only 21. The pitching has upside galore. Phillips, Boyle, Roa, and Richardson have all had moments of dominance-- they're inconsistent, but can be eye-popping. Each looks like a major league contributor at this point. Phillips and Richardson have taken big steps forward in their development and now look like they could be starters long-term.

    The Bad: Nearly all of the no-hit, big-bat brigade has been woeful. They K in bunches and all the tools they've got can't get them to first base. That particular experiment looks doomed at the moment. Hinds, Cerda, and company have been horrid. McAfee is coming back to earth, and no one aside from Marte profiles to do anything interesting. The offensive side of the ball is putrid-- perhaps the worst I've seen a team. Yet, they're over .500.

    High A
    The Good: The pitching staff looks legitimately interesting. At least five starters could be considered as call-ups to AA if/when they get bumped to Louisville. Acuna's taken that next step-- he's a top 10 prospect. Chase Petty, in limited innings, is even better this season than last-- and he was very good last year. Ruben Ibarra is showing enough that he might be interesting-- he fluctuates between an 850 and a 925 OPS bat when healthy. (I'd like to see him get into premium shape-- just to see what might happen.) Arroyo is showing some signs of busting out of his season-long slump.

    The Bad: Injuries have prevented the Dragons from being better. Jay Allen's early-season injury has apparently been really bad. Austin Hendrick is one of the Big K Klub-- still waiting on him to get on-track. Arroyo, as mentioned, has struggled. Is he still a top 100 prospect? Not at this juncture, IMO. (Still just 19.) Very little offense here. With a middling offense, they'd be in the running for the pennant.

    Low A
    The Good: Big-time offensive production from a variety of very young hitters. Jorge is still showing out-- looks like a top 10 guy. Power, speed, and a hit tool while playing middle infield? Yes, please. So was Balcazar before injury. Hector Rodriguez is showing both power and a solid hit tool. As a CF. Collier and Stewart have been less dominant, but still shown flashes. Looks like both might be able to stick at the hot corner-- or perhaps move to RF. Cade Hunter, LH-hitting catcher/ OF, has gotten hot and looks good right now. Chris McElvain is showing something-- he's promising, but a little old.

    The Bad: Ariel Almonte has taken a step back. Yerlin Confidan hasn't set the world on fire either. The pitching has been pretty bad, outside of McElvain and a couple relievers. With a roster this young, there's lots and lots of highs and lows-- consistency of a roller coaster. 9 games below .500 is not where they ought to be, based on offensive stats. They're the anti-Lookouts.

    DSL and ACL teams begin today.

    Looking forward to seeing Alfredo Duno, Carlos Sanchez, whom scouts have raved about in The Athletic, Esmith Pineda, and Ricardo Cabrera as offensive players and Jose Montero as a SP candidate.

    At this point, a top 10 list. No Hopkins, Steer, McLain, Abbott, or Williamson-- they've all gotten the call:

    1. EDLC
    One of, if not the very top prospect in the game right now. Ridiculous highlight, jaw-dropping plays nearly every night.

    2. Noelvi Marte
    Looks like he's settling in at 3B now. Might see him moved up if EDLC is. AAA as a 21-year-old is a top 25 prospect in the game, fwiw.

    3. CES
    Don't @ me. Look at his numbers-- they're Pujolsian. I don't care what the experts say-- I believe in that bat.

    4. Edwin Arroyo
    His first month was really, really bad. His last month? .289/ .330/ .489/ .819. That'll play, for sure. Especially as a 19-year-old in High A.

    5. Cam Collier
    On the struggle bus in Daytona, but he's only 18. Youngest player in the league gets some leeway. For now.

    6. Chase Petty
    With Abbott's graduation, he's the top pitcher on the list. Petty's barely 20 and dominating High A. He needs innings, but the future looks bright.

    7. Jose Acuna
    Another Dragon, he's among the league leaders across the board. Another precociously young guy who's dominating when he should be struggling.

    8. Connor Phillips
    Cut his BB rate by 1 per nine and has upped his K rate to a ridiculous 15.8.

    9. Carlos Jorge
    In a bit of a funk right now, but still OPSing nearly 900 as a 19-year-old in the FSL.

    10. Julian Aguiar
    2.03 ERA as a starter in Dayton, he's the 3rd Dragon starter on this list. Lots of intriguing arms in mid-state Ohio.

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    So far:

    AAA
    The Good: Graduates to the MLB team include McLain (who's killing it), Williamson, Abbott, Hopkins, and a host of relief arms. Bats are on their way to a winning season-- assuming they can continue their recent dominance. EDLC and CES are two of the best offensive players in the league. EDLC has shown prodigious tools-- consensus is that no prospect in the game is as equally talented across all five tools. They are an offensive force-- and that's with several players who haven't put it together yet. There's still more in the tank, believe it or not. Chuckie Robinson and Pareda are knocking the stuffing out of the ball as a catching tandem. McLain and Hopkins were dominant. Reynolds has an OPS over 900. Lots and lots of offensive punch.

    The Bad: Starting pitching has been decimated by call-ups. Bats have had to resort to several free agents from independent leagues-- with the results you might imagine. Ditto the 'pen. Serious struggles nearly across the board to just throw strikes. Siani is showing power, but a 30 hit tool.

    AA
    The Good: Two Lookouts have already made the show-- Salazar and Abbott. Noelvi Marte has established himself as a legitimate power and MOP candidate in AA. He's among the better prospects in the league. The tacky ball has led to underwhelming numbers across the board, but they might be hiding his breakout. He's showing power, speed, a good hit tool, and a penchant for coming through in the clutch-- best of all, he's only 21. The pitching has upside galore. Phillips, Boyle, Roa, and Richardson have all had moments of dominance-- they're inconsistent, but can be eye-popping. Each looks like a major league contributor at this point. Phillips and Richardson have taken big steps forward in their development and now look like they could be starters long-term.

    The Bad: Nearly all of the no-hit, big-bat brigade has been woeful. They K in bunches and all the tools they've got can't get them to first base. That particular experiment looks doomed at the moment. Hinds, Cerda, and company have been horrid. McAfee is coming back to earth, and no one aside from Marte profiles to do anything interesting. The offensive side of the ball is putrid-- perhaps the worst I've seen a team. Yet, they're over .500.

    High A
    The Good: The pitching staff looks legitimately interesting. At least five starters could be considered as call-ups to AA if/when they get bumped to Louisville. Acuna's taken that next step-- he's a top 10 prospect. Chase Petty, in limited innings, is even better this season than last-- and he was very good last year. Ruben Ibarra is showing enough that he might be interesting-- he fluctuates between an 850 and a 925 OPS bat when healthy. (I'd like to see him get into premium shape-- just to see what might happen.) Arroyo is showing some signs of busting out of his season-long slump.

    The Bad: Injuries have prevented the Dragons from being better. Jay Allen's early-season injury has apparently been really bad. Austin Hendrick is one of the Big K Klub-- still waiting on him to get on-track. Arroyo, as mentioned, has struggled. Is he still a top 100 prospect? Not at this juncture, IMO. (Still just 19.) Very little offense here. With a middling offense, they'd be in the running for the pennant.

    Low A
    The Good: Big-time offensive production from a variety of very young hitters. Jorge is still showing out-- looks like a top 10 guy. Power, speed, and a hit tool while playing middle infield? Yes, please. So was Balcazar before injury. Hector Rodriguez is showing both power and a solid hit tool. As a CF. Collier and Stewart have been less dominant, but still shown flashes. Looks like both might be able to stick at the hot corner-- or perhaps move to RF. Cade Hunter, LH-hitting catcher/ OF, has gotten hot and looks good right now. Chris McElvain is showing something-- he's promising, but a little old.

    The Bad: Ariel Almonte has taken a step back. Yerlin Confidan hasn't set the world on fire either. The pitching has been pretty bad, outside of McElvain and a couple relievers. With a roster this young, there's lots and lots of highs and lows-- consistency of a roller coaster. 9 games below .500 is not where they ought to be, based on offensive stats. They're the anti-Lookouts.

    DSL and ACL teams begin today.

    Looking forward to seeing Alfredo Duno, Carlos Sanchez, whom scouts have raved about in The Athletic, Esmith Pineda, and Ricardo Cabrera as offensive players and Jose Montero as a SP candidate.

    At this point, a top 10 list. No Hopkins, Steer, McLain, Abbott, or Williamson-- they've all gotten the call:

    1. EDLC
    One of, if not the very top prospect in the game right now. Ridiculous highlight, jaw-dropping plays nearly every night.

    2. Noelvi Marte
    Looks like he's settling in at 3B now. Might see him moved up if EDLC is. AAA as a 21-year-old is a top 25 prospect in the game, fwiw.

    3. CES
    Don't @ me. Look at his numbers-- they're Pujolsian. I don't care what the experts say-- I believe in that bat.

    4. Edwin Arroyo
    His first month was really, really bad. His last month? .289/ .330/ .489/ .819. That'll play, for sure. Especially as a 19-year-old in High A.

    5. Cam Collier
    On the struggle bus in Daytona, but he's only 18. Youngest player in the league gets some leeway. For now.

    6. Chase Petty
    With Abbott's graduation, he's the top pitcher on the list. Petty's barely 20 and dominating High A. He needs innings, but the future looks bright.

    7. Jose Acuna
    Another Dragon, he's among the league leaders across the board. Another precociously young guy who's dominating when he should be struggling.

    8. Connor Phillips
    Cut his BB rate by 1 per nine and has upped his K rate to a ridiculous 15.8.

    9. Carlos Jorge
    In a bit of a funk right now, but still OPSing nearly 900 as a 19-year-old in the FSL.

    10. Julian Aguiar
    2.03 ERA as a starter in Dayton, he's the 3rd Dragon starter on this list. Lots of intriguing arms in mid-state Ohio.
    Good post and list. Hector Rodriguez probably belongs on that list somewhere. Not sure who I'd bump. Probably Phillips. He's cut his walk rate, but it's still too high and his 1.6 HR/9 is scary as well. The K-Rate is awesome. He's still top 10 caliber, but there are 10 others I like better.
    Last edited by mth123; 06-05-2023 at 12:25 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    It'll be interesting to see where the 2023 draft picks fit into this list in a few months. Hector Rodriguez has to be knocking on the top 10 door. Man what an epic trade as both Acuna and Rodriguez are strong top 10 in the system contenders right now. Collier has been a little disappointing so far, but I don't see any major red flags just an 18 year old trying to adjust to pro ball.

    Williamson getting things turned around would be one of the more positive developments if his current performance level holds up. The Reds might already be playing with house money in that deal because Geno stinks this year, and Wong(who Winker was traded for) has been a total nightmare. Meanwhile, Fraley is a solid lefty bat and is cheap, while Phillips is trending towards being a solid mid rotation MLB SP. If Williamson turns into a solid back end SP then it'll be a massive win for the Reds IMO.

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    Sea Ray (06-05-2023)

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Nice summary (again) Zee.

    Thanks for the work and the read, it is appreciated.

    I assume we will use this thread for the daily game reactions etc?
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    It'll be interesting to see where the 2023 draft picks fit into this list in a few months.
    I'd guess, if one of the top five doesn't fall and/or Dollander/ Lowder doesn't just blow up in the NCAA Tournament, he'll be below Arroyo, at the least. I'd personally have a hard time ranking an untested guy above Collier, Acuna, and Petty too. 8th seems just about right to me.

    If, otoh, they manage to grab Clark, Walker, Skenes, Crews, or Langford, he'd go number three, just below Marte.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Good post and list. Henry Rodriguez probably belongs on that list somewhere. Not sure who I'd bump. Probably Phillips. He's cut his walk rate, but it's still too high and his 1.6 HR/9 is scary as well. The K-Rate is awesome. He's still top 10 caliber, but there are 10 others I like better.
    Lots of depth right now in Red prospects.

    There should be others soon as well.

    I think Carlos Sanchez has a real chance to be a difference-maker-- if he OPSes 1.000+ in the ACL, I think he'd be in my top 10. Same for Pineda and Cabrera. Ditto Duno in the DSL.

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I'd guess, if one of the top five doesn't fall and/or Dollander/ Lowder doesn't just blow up in the NCAA Tournament, he'll be below Arroyo, at the least. I'd personally have a hard time ranking an untested guy above Collier, Acuna, and Petty too. 8th seems just about right to me.

    If, otoh, they manage to grab Clark, Walker, Skenes, Crews, or Langford, he'd go number three, just below Marte.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Lots of depth right now in Red prospects.

    There should be others soon as well.

    I think Carlos Sanchez has a real chance to be a difference-maker-- if he OPSes 1.000+ in the ACL, I think he'd be in my top 10. Same for Pineda and Cabrera. Ditto Duno in the DSL.
    Another guy who would challenge for my top 10 would be Lyon Richardson. I probably have him higher than Phillips and Petty on my list.

    Some other honorable mentions for me, though not top 10 guys: Blake Dunn, Daniel Duarte, Hunter Parks and Joe Boyle.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I'd guess, if one of the top five doesn't fall and/or Dollander/ Lowder doesn't just blow up in the NCAA Tournament, he'll be below Arroyo, at the least. I'd personally have a hard time ranking an untested guy above Collier, Acuna, and Petty too. 8th seems just about right to me.

    If, otoh, they manage to grab Clark, Walker, Skenes, Crews, or Langford, he'd go number three, just below Marte.
    I think Clark is the most likely of the top 5 to drop and I'd put him at 3 or 4. Dollander likely in the 8-10 range like you said. If we drafted Lowder and had him pitch some, and he looked good I might put him at 7 behind Petty. Crews or Skenes would be #2, but that ain't happening lol.

    I don't know much about Carlos Sanchez yet so I'm looking forward to seeing what he does.
    Last edited by JCM11; 06-05-2023 at 12:50 PM.

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Another guy who would challenge for my top 10 would be Lyon Richardson. I probably have him higher than Phillips and Petty on my list.
    Yeah, you could rightfully go 15-17 spots and still have valid arguments. The depth of prospect is as good as I can remember it-- and the height of prospect upside is as well.

    This is, to me, similar to the dawn of the 1984-1988 group that were the backbone of the 1990 championship team: Larkin, Stillwell, Davis, Daniels, O'Neil, Sabo, Browning, Jeff Russell, John Franco, Jack Armstrong, Rob Dibble, and Rob Murphy.

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    I think Clark is the most likely of the top 5 to drop and I'd put him at 3 or 4. Dollander likely in the 8-10 range like you said.
    Dollander and Lowder would have to pitch well to get into top five range. And that could absolutely happen.

    An interesting choice would be Noble Meyer.

    I think I'd have him in my top 10, but maybe not. (And that's not a knock on Meyer, but a comment on the strength of the rest of the group.)

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    I would flip Arroyo and Collier on that top 5 (putting Collier at 4 and Arroyo at 5). Either way, I think one of the "Big 5" would displace Arroyo at 5, slotting just under Collier.

    If it's someone outside the Big 5, I think they immediately become the 6th best prospect in our system. I like Petty a lot but I doubt he'd go top 6 in this draft right now.
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-05-2023 at 01:09 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    This is a ddeeeeeeepp cut but...

    OnBaseMachine
    @RedsFan_Brandon

    27m
    RBI single in his second PA. 2-for-2 with 3 RBI.

    Yeicol Soriano, a young CFer, has walked and doubled. #Reds
    Quote Tweet
    OnBaseMachine
    @RedsFan_Brandon

    1h
    Alfredo Duno, the #Reds prized 17-year old catching prospect signed in January out of Venezuela, hit a 2-run single in his first professional PA this morning in the DSL.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    I love that name, Alfredo Duno
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I would flip Arroyo and Collier on that top 5 (putting Collier at 4 and Arroyo at 5). Either way, I think one of the "Big 5" would displace Arroyo at 5, slotting just under Collier.

    If it's someone outside the Big 5, I think they immediately become the 6th best prospect in our system. I like Petty a lot but I doubt he'd go top 6 in this draft right now.
    He's a 20-year-old who's dominating High A ball in small innings. That's what you'd expect Skenes to do.

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    He's a 20-year-old who's dominating High A ball in small innings. That's what you'd expect Skenes to do.
    Yes but 16 innings. He also had an 8.8 K/9 last year over 98 innings. Again, I like him a lot but I don't see him as good of a prospect as the top 5 or 6 guys in this draft.

    Either way its picking nits. Either player would likely be in the 100-150 prospect range right now, most of which is highly interchangeable.
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-05-2023 at 04:56 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Yes but 16 innings. He also had an 8.8 K/9 last year over 98 innings. Again, I like him a lot but I don't see him as good of a prospect as the top 5 or 6 guys in this draft.

    Either way its picking nits. Either player would likely be in the 100-150 prospect range right now, most of which is highly interchangeable.
    Petty doesn't walk many batters, and doesn't give up many HR with his heavy sinking fastball. He could fit the mold of a Cueto or Castillo and pitch really well in GABP.
    Here are their compared minor league numbers in HR/9 BB/9 SO/9

    Chase Petty 0.5 2.6 9.3

    Johnny Cueto 0.8 2.0 9.1

    Louis Castillo 0.4 2.5 8.4


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