Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

[mth123]

My goodness Phillips has flipped the switch. Maybe a top 3 in the system prospect by year's end.

I'm hoping he's a big league starter before that.

[krm1580]

He has been really good. I would like to see him Boyle, Roa, Marte and Hinds brought up at the mid point and spend the rest of the season seeing what they can do with or against the non pre-tack balls.

If they do well bring them up for September call up so we can rest the starters- so they are fresh for the playoffs

[RED VAN HOT]

The southern league first half ends on 25 June. I think there will be multiple moves after that. Dayton starters must take their place, so that might limit the number of promotions.

[JCM11]

I'm hoping he's a big league starter before that.

I'm hoping the Reds add some veteran pitching and don't rely on rookies to make up a 26 man roster. Phillips likely has a 125-130 innings limit this year I doubt he could pitch into September.

[mth123]

I'm hoping the Reds add some veteran pitching and don't rely on rookies to make up a 26 man roster. Phillips likely has a 125-130 innings limit this year I doubt he could piich into September.

I felt this way earlier, but seeing the impact of McLain, Elly, Abbott... I say keep 'em coming. If they struggle, they can always send them back down the same way they did with Benson. That didn't seem to do any long-term damage.

Not saying I wouldn't love an acquisition or two under the right circumstances, but the Reds do have some options to further push marginal guys off the roster.

[RedTeamGo!]

RTG! had no such reservations.

Yeah, he’s had a great week but let’s see him sustain it for more than that. I would trade him ASAP if I were the Reds

[Benihana]

He has been really good. I would like to see him Boyle, Roa, Marte and Hinds brought up at the mid point and spend the rest of the season seeing what they can do with or against the non pre-tack balls.

If they do well bring them up for September call up so we can rest the starters- so they are fresh for the playoffs

Don’t forget Richardson too. All of them should get the bump to AAA by the end of the month. Some of the pitchers could even earn September call-ups to get their feet wet while bolstering the bullpen (or even rotation?) down the stretch.

[icehole3]

Edwin Arroyo, the Reds' No. 3 prospect, wheels into third base for his 22nd XBH in 53 games

https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/stat...80790260699136

No. 10 Reds prospect Connor Phillips fans 8th and final batter through six scoreless

https://www.milb.com/chattanooga/vid...98-default-vtp

Michel Triana walk off for Daytona.

https://twitter.com/daytonatortugas/...84157221666822

[MikeS21]

Triana is one of those guys who it seems has been around forever, but just has never lived up to the hype. Loads of power, but he just can’t hit a baseball. My guess is that he’s on his last chance to make or break. Too many guys beneath him who are pushing their way up the ladder.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The end of the Southern League first half is relatively soon: June 25. Were I in charge, here are the promotions I'd hand out:

AA to AAA
- Connor Phillips, SP
To: AAA Louisville
Easiest call on the list, IMO. Phillips had a rather large cup of coffee in Chattanooga last season when he was promoted at the halfway point of the season, so he's got nearly a full year of AA. He's also progressed, making a substantial leap in his last six games. That .584 June OPSA is elite, fwiw. The 15+ K rate/9 is ridiculous. He's a leading candidate to break camp in 2024 as a starter. He could benefit from a half-season in AAA by using the different ball, while working on making in-game adjustments as needed. The corresponding move is just as easy-- one of the (many) free agents signed in early June can be jettisoned painlessly. This will improve Louisville greatly, giving them an actual TOR guy to replace Lively and Abbott, two who were poached early this season.

- Joe Boyle, P
To: AAA Louisville
The analytics might not support this move, but I suspect it's best for player and team. Boyle's either brilliant or broken. There's not much in the middle. If the Reds suspect (as I do) that part of his elite spin rates and stuff on his fastball and slider are causing his control issues, the easy decision is to transform him into a relief arm. There will be need for relief arms, either later this season or in 2024. There is room on the 40-man roster as well. I'd still start him, but focus on throwing only two pitches (ditch the nascent change) and going a total of nine hitters. He'd then be ready for middle relief in 2024.

- Noelvi Marte, 3B
To: AAA Louisville
I could go either way here, but suspect Marte might actually see his numbers bump up with the promotion to the Bats. Vosler could switch to 1B full-time and Renolds to 2B pretty easily. (I assume CES will continue to play around the horn, but mostly in the OF.) The Bats could use more thump, I guess. Couldn't every team? Regardless, Marte seems ready for the jump. If you want him prepared by 2024, the AAA promotion likely has to happen now (or at least relatively soon).

- Andy Fisher, LHRP
To: AAA Louisville
Fisher has had a dominant season so far. Few have noticed, of course. As a southpaw, he'd be helpful for a second-half run by the Bats. A good half-season could get him consideration for the 40-man roster as well. The Bats have a plethora of relief options, but none profile to be as helpful for 2024.

- Evan Kravetz, LHRP
To: AAA Louisville
Another older lefty, Kravetz is in the same boat as Fisher. He's got better stuff, IMO, but less of an idea of where it's going. He's also a bit Jeckyll and Hyde. Another five-year minor league veteran, he'll have to be put on the 40-man at the end of the season. The Reds will have to make a decision on him-- best, then, to put him in AAA to see what he has.

High-A to AA
- Julian Aguiar, SP
To: AA Chattanooga
Aguiar's been lights out all season in Dayton. He's also relatively old-- for the Dragon rotation, at any rate. The tacky ball in AA may well agree with him. If that's the case, you've got a 22-year-old AA starter putting up elite numbers for a full season as either a trade chip or a legitimate prospect. I suspect Aguiar will get some top 100 love from national prognosticators at the end of the season. He might end up in the top 75 or so if he pitches well in Chattanooga.

- Chase Petty, SP
To: AA Chattanooga
Petty could absolutely stay in Dayton all season. The Reds are obviously cognizant of his arm and age, and they already have one AA pitcher on a strict pitch count (Lyon Richardson). That said, Petty's just been so, so good in his short starts that he might need the challenge. Too, the tacky ball may well allow him to throw with less wear. I'd push him up the level, knowing the Lookout rotation could use him. (And knowing their plethora of middle relief prospects who need innings.)

- Jake Gozzo, RHRP
To: AA Chattanooga
Gozzo's another relief arm that's quietly enjoying a breakout season. He's old for the level, and the Reds need guys in AA after promoting two relief arms ahead of him. He's also had a season plus in A ball. Easy choice here. Good scouting by Reds' cross-checkers and development staff here, btw. Gozzo has shown out this year and is one reason why Dayton has kept its collective head above .500 despite a putrid offense.

- Myles Gayman, RHRP
To: AA Chattanooga
Gayman is another graybeard in the Dragon 'pen (25). He's been just as effective as he was last year. He was challenged last year with Chattanooga and absolutely obliterated. Time to give him another shot. He'd take the spot of either Kravetz or Fisher, as Gozzo would take the other's.

Low-A to High-A
- Chris McElvain, RHSP
To: Dayton
I'm not sure if anyone had McElvain as their breakout star this year, but he's been quietly solid for an 8th round pick in his first taste of professional baseball. His numbers aren't elite, but they're solid. I suspect the Reds will draft at least a couple older arms they can then plug into this spot in low A. If the Reds draft, say, Rhett Lowder, Kurston Waldrop, or Chase Dollander, they would probably slot that arm into Dayton instead or in addition. The Dragon starting staff is pretty solid. They can afford to be a bit picky.

- Hector Rodriguez, CF/OF
To: High-A Dayton
I'm really torn on this one. Rodriguez has shown shocking power and a solid hit tool in Daytona. Typically, Daytona's hitting environment is brutal, and he's gone off as a 19-year-old. That .920 OPS is intriguing, for sure. And the Dragon's offense is largely dreadful-- Edwin Arroyo is a solid prospect, but it's not like he's dominating. They could use that bat to pair with exceptional pitching and maybe make a second-half playoff run. That said, Jay Allen should be back relatively soon, and he should be good. I'd bring Rodriguez up, I think: he's got little to prove in Low-A Daytona and may enjoy the new hitting environment. The Dragons have had largely had a OF-by-committee approach so far this year. Bringing up Rodriguez to pair with Allen might make them more formidable offensively. It'll certainly be more exciting on the basepaths. The Reds may, otoh, draft a hitter relatively highly in the draft, neccesitating an open spot in High-A. If so, that's perfectly fine.

[texasdave]

If Jake Gozzo ever makes the Show, he will have his sister and Scott Schebler to thank for it.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...e/69616004007/

[medford]

fun story. At age 26, seems like Gozzo is a good candidate to promote to AA at the break. He is having an excellent season plus he pitched in Dayton last year.

[RED VAN HOT]

Well thought out, as usual. I have a couple of comments and suggestions.

I can't determine what Boyle is throwing, but I was surprised by the quality of his breaking ball. Yes, let him start for now.

Glad to see you mention Kravetz. BP arms are always susceptible to being taken in rule 5. Reds need to decide whether to protect him.

Roa is close, but he needs to show more consistency and lower his BB rate.

Richardson needs to stay in AA until he is stretched out to 90 innings; I would move Petty at the same time. Two openers may tax Lookouts BP a little too much. Ideally, you might want Phillips, Roa, and Richardson to audition for a spot in the rotation in 2024, Petty in 2025

Any thoughts on moving Jorge up?

[Bourgeois Zee]

Any thoughts on moving Jorge up?

Yeah, for sure.

He's scuffling a bit right now, and Tyler Callihan is in front of him. For those reasons, I'd keep him in Low A for now.

Were Balcazar to have been healthy, perhaps that could have been revisited, but there's a bit of a traffic jam right now, and Jorge has a lot of time. The Reds can be patient.

[icehole3]

For the second consecutive week, Connor Phillips has been named Southern League Pitcher of the Week!

https://twitter.com/RedsOnTheRise/st...82869168730112

Rece Hinds has been named Southern League Player of the Week

https://twitter.com/RedsOnTheRise/st...59272668708864