Midsummer Notes & Thoughts

[Bourgeois Zee]

Yes but 16 innings. He also had an 8.8 K/9 last year over 98 innings. Again, I like him a lot but I don't see him as good of a prospect as the top 5 or 6 guys in this draft.

Either way its picking nits. Either player would likely be in the 100-150 prospect range right now, most of which is highly interchangeable.

Yeah. I'm guessing Skenes will be a top 50 guy.

I also expect Petty to be a top 100 guy-- if not more-- if he can add innings.

Dollander and Lowder, otoh, would be slightly below that, I think.

[Dave C]

Yes, I saw the note on the ACL opening up today. I'll be going out to a few games in the next few weeks. Free to all! ACL games are always fun to watch.

Top 10: Dunn is just outside as is Rodriguez. I guess since Hopkins is in Cin he's not eligible but his year so far deserves some recognition. If not for injury Leonardo Balcazar could easily be in the bottom of this group. He roared through ACL last year and started even hotter in Daytona.

Good list... Thanks!

[Benihana]

Yeah. I'm guessing Skenes will be a top 50 guy.

I also expect Petty to be a top 100 guy-- if not more-- if he can add innings.

Dollander and Lowder, otoh, would be slightly below that, I think.

Agree, but he’s also supposed to be the second pick of the draft and is a clear cut “top 5 guy.” As I said that player would rank ahead of Arroyo, def in the top 100. If it’s NOT a top 5 guy, then they’d be behind Arroyo and likely outside of the top 100.

[icehole3]

Hector Rodríguez has been named Florida State League Player of the Month!

https://twitter.com/RedsOnTheRise/st...92528937787393

- - - Updated - - -

Noelvi Marte has been named Southern League Player of the Month

https://twitter.com/RedsOnTheRise/st...80787612901377

[Bourgeois Zee]

How well is the Red farm developing young players?

Three Players of the Month so far in May: Hector Rodriguez in low A FSL, Julian Aguiar in High-A Dayton, and Noelvi Marte in AA Chattanooga.

Speaking of Marte, a recent scout's take on him in The Athletic opines that he's likely going to be a very good (not not transcendant) player with easy power, good defense at 3B, and decent speed. My comparable was Aramis Ramirez, perhaps Evan Longoria. Bobby Bonilla or Scott Rolen are his upside.

In a lineup that likely goes India/Friedl/McLain/ EDLC/ CES/ Fraley, I really like Marte as the seventh hitter. With Steer and Stephenson behind him, that lineup is absolutely stacked.

That said, man, are the Reds heavily RH. McLain, Steer, CES, Marte, and Hopkins from the minors, with India and Stephenson at the MLB level. They need a LH masher in the middle-- or at least a LH platoon guy.

[icehole3]

How well is the Red farm developing young players?

Three Players of the Month so far in May: Hector Rodriguez in low A FSL, Julian Aguiar in High-A Dayton, and Noelvi Marte in AA Chattanooga.

Speaking of Marte, a recent scout's take on him in The Athletic opines that he's likely going to be a very good (not not transcendant) player with easy power, good defense at 3B, and decent speed. My comparable was Aramis Ramirez, perhaps Evan Longoria. Bobby Bonilla or Scott Rolen are his upside.

In a lineup that likely goes India/Friedl/McLain/ EDLC/ CES/ Fraley, I really like Marte as the seventh hitter. With Steer and Stephenson behind him, that lineup is absolutely stacked.

That said, man, are the Reds heavily RH. McLain, Steer, CES, Marte, and Hopkins from the minors, with India and Stephenson at the MLB level. They need a LH masher in the middle-- or at least a LH platoon guy.

EDLC has entered the chat.

[Bourgeois Zee]

EDLC has entered the chat.

Did they name him as the International League's PotM?

[Kc61]

EDLC has entered the chat.

Gotta have three LHH (everyday or platoon) for the regular lineup versus RHP and one for the bench. Bare minimum.

I feel Reds are losing games (offensive part) largely due to the absence of LHH. The Houser game for example.

Friedl, Fraley and EDLC would do it along with a good hitting bench LHH. IMO, that’s minimum.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Friedl, Fraley and EDLC would do it along with a good hitting bench LHH. IMO, that’s minimum.

For next year, the sneaky good play could be Votto. That would require the Reds to sign him and to move Steer or India back to 3B or the OF for the season.

India LF
Friedl CF
McLain 2B
EDLC SS
CES DH/ 1B/ 3B
Fraley/ Hopkins RF
Votto 1B/ DH
Steer 3B
Stephenson C

After that, when Marte comes on, you could move Steer to Votto's spot, with Marte at 3B. That would require the Reds find a LH masher for the bench. (Again, Votto?)

[Kc61]

For next year, the sneaky good play could be Votto. That would require the Reds to sign him and to move Steer or India back to 3B or the OF for the season.

India LF
Friedl CF
McLain 2B
EDLC SS
CES DH/ 1B/ 3B
Fraley/ Hopkins RF
Votto 1B/ DH
Steer 3B
Stephenson C

After that, when Marte comes on, you could move Steer to Votto's spot, with Marte at 3B. That would require the Reds find a LH masher for the bench. (Again, Votto?)

If Joey is healthy enough he could be a sneaky way of adding LHH. I like it.

[klw]

How well is the Red farm developing young players?

Three Players of the Month so far in May: Hector Rodriguez in low A FSL, Julian Aguiar in High-A Dayton, and Noelvi Marte in AA Chattanooga.

And Steer was NL Rookie of the month.

[Dingers4Duvall]

And just like that we could have our LHH power hitting bat.

Friedl, Fraley and De La Cruz as our lefty hitters, I sure like that.

[medford]

Guess you need to redo your top 10

[Bourgeois Zee]

Guess you need to redo your top 10

Done:

1. Noelvi Marte
He's crushed AA after a slow start. How does a month-long streak of .313/ .383/ .494/ .877 sound? Is it better when I tell you he's K'ed a total of 13 times in his last 102 PAs? And walked nearly as often (12)? How about if I add five SB without getting caught? How about if I also tell you this is done in a league wherein offense has nearly completely dried up? Experts says he's going to be very good, not great. If that's all he is, that's okay. But I suspect he might have more in the tank. If he gets to his supposed 70 power, his upside is as a Gold Glove 3B with 40/20 capability, a .300 BA, and a .400 OBP.

2. CES
Learning how to walk? Wut? That 7.5 BB% sure looks fine, especially when paired with that .342 BA. That 23.8% K% doesn't seem bad either.

3. Edwin Arroyo
Legitimate SS who's likely to play in the majors as a 22-year-old. En fuego over his last 7 days. Adding power and providing plenty of SB as well. Nice to see from a 19-year-old kid in High A ball. I look for him to continue to get better and better this season.

4. Cam Collier
Has struggled a bit this year, but all the tools are there. Particularly for a kid who's just barely able to buy lottery tickets.

5. Chase Petty
Petty is three months' older than Edwin Arroyo. He's dominating in High A ball as a starting pitcher. If he can add innings, he should be in everyone's top 100 by the end of the season. What talent the Twins had in their system (that the Reds largely pilfered)!

6. Jose Acuna
Again, about half a year older than Arroyo and Petty, Acuna's dominating in High-A with all the innings you could want him to provide. He'd be the best prospect in a decent Met system, fwiw, were he not dealt. (And Hector Rodriguez would be in their top five, if not top three.)

7. Connor Phillips
More than 15 Ks/9? That works out to a 38.2 K%. Elite. Even better, he's knocked off more than 5% of his BB%, down to 10.6%. That ranks 101st in the Southern League out of 191. His BABiP is .406, so he's been remarkably unlucky when opponents do hit the ball. That .319 xFIP ranks 7th in the Southern League, fwiw. He's young for the level too.

8. Carlos Jorge
Smacking the ball for two months now. No, check that-- three years of smacking the ball. Another super young one.

9. Julian Aguiar
High A Pitcher of the Month for May, he's put up pinball numbers. A year and a bit older than Acuna and nearly two years older than Petty, I'm guessing he's going to end up in AA late this year.

10. Hector Rodriguez
Another May Player of the Month. He's topping the FSL in HR, 11th in RBI, has a 19.6 K%, and a 143 wRC+. That line ranks 9th in the league. It's even better when you realize this is after he had a pretty poor April and is only 19.

Others considered:
- Lyon Richardson
- Sal Stewart
- Ricardo Cabrera
- Carlos Sanchez
- Leonardo Balcazar
- Alfredo Duno
- Cade Hunter

[Bourgeois Zee]

LF/C Cade Hunter's last month: .357/ .471/ .536/ 1.007. A 9:19 BB:K ratio in that time as well. Because he hits in the FSL, his overall numbers work out to a 112 wRC+.