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Thread: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

  1. #886
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    That’s awesome.

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    Ron Madden (07-09-2023)


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  4. #887
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Here is what I think is Steel’s most telling post from the “succeeding poorly” thread. Still seems to be a very fair take to me. So did his definitions of succeeding poorly and failing well. He broke down his point well, and it seems to make a lot of sense. Maybe Elly has hit the perfect storm of the new shift rules and being ridiculous fast to allow him to maintain a 400+ BABIP. He’s a super talented and super exciting player. I’m stoked about him on the team and I saw nowhere that showed Steel was anything but stoked too. However, it might be prudent to consider what a typical BABIP looks like when looking at EDLCs stat line. If that normalizes somewhat, even if it normalizes to a higher end of what can be historically expected, he’s still going to need to cut down on the Ks and walk a touch more to be where he is at OPSwise now.
    The problem with this analysis is that Steel uses .350 BABIP as a ceiling for Elly. His career BABIP as a profesional hitter in over 1000 PA’s is over .400. And watching him play, it’s easy to see him keeping that .400+ BABIP in the majors.

    Analysis like this is fine in the macro, but rather meaningless in the micro. That has always been the case with statistical analysis on anything. It can tell you generally want to expect, but is not so good on an individual.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The problem with this analysis is that Steel uses .350 BABIP as a ceiling for Elly. His career BABIP as a profesional hitter in over 1000 PA’s is over .400. And watching him play, it’s easy to see him keeping that .400+ BABIP in the majors.

    Analysis like this is fine in the macro, but rather meaningless in the micro. That has always been the case with statistical analysis on anything. It can tell you generally want to expect, but is not so good on an individual.
    That’s why I mentioned what I did about being a perfect storm this year to allow for a 400+ BABIP. I still think his take is very fair.

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The problem with this analysis is that Steel uses .350 BABIP as a ceiling for Elly. His career BABIP as a profesional hitter in over 1000 PA’s is over .400. And watching him play, it’s easy to see him keeping that .400+ BABIP in the majors.

    Analysis like this is fine in the macro, but rather meaningless in the micro. That has always been the case with statistical analysis on anything. It can tell you generally want to expect, but is not so good on an individual.
    Exactly. He has 1,200 plate appearances as a professional and he's .400 career. Assigning an artificial cap based on players with different skillsets is a narrow analysis. What's more is that it ignores many other variables that could go the opposite direction when trying to assess his talent.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Exactly. He has 1,200 plate appearances as a professional and he's .400 career. Assigning an artificial cap based on players with different skillsets is a narrow analysis. What's more is that it ignores many other variables that could go the opposite direction when trying to assess his talent.
    Perhaps it's because of a near complete dismissal of his 80 grade speed.

    EDLC is Billy Hamilton (complete with 4-6 infield hits per month), and he hits the ball really, really hard.

    The combination of the two is nearly impossible to gauge statistically via pointing out other players.

    This was explained, fwiw, in multiple threads in both the minor league and ORG forums.

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Perhaps it's because of a near complete dismissal of his 80 grade speed.

    EDLC is Billy Hamilton (complete with 4-6 infield hits per month), and he hits the ball really, really hard.

    The combination of the two is nearly impossible to gauge statistically via pointing out other players.

    This was explained, fwiw, in multiple threads in both the minor league and ORG forums.
    Case in point: Billy Hamilton was one of the worst in the league at hard hits and had just a 1.2 GB:FB ratio.

    Elly right now is getting a lot of good wood on the ball and has a 3.5 GB:FB ratio.

    Treating the two as theoretically one in the same is simply not helpful.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The problem with this analysis is that Steel uses .350 BABIP as a ceiling for Elly. His career BABIP as a profesional hitter in over 1000 PA’s is over .400. And watching him play, it’s easy to see him keeping that .400+ BABIP in the majors.

    Analysis like this is fine in the macro, but rather meaningless in the micro. That has always been the case with statistical analysis on anything. It can tell you generally want to expect, but is not so good on an individual.
    The .350 BABIP I used was to provide a top tier that, if held over a career, would rank second among all players in the modern era, outpaced by only Rod Carew's .359 career BABIP. That's the kind of stuff we're talking about here, and Carew posted a full season MLB BABIP over .400 exactly once. The kind of numbers that are being thrown around aren't just super-aggressive, they're unprecedented even for the greatest hitters in the history of the game. There are only 30 full seasons EVER- dead ball, modern, whatever- where a player put up a .400 or higher BABIP.

    And yes, analytics can be used and are currently used to accurately project individual player performance. There are entire industries built around that as it relates to sports. I'm not sure why you seem to believe otherwise, but it's not true.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

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    Bob Sheed (07-09-2023),mth123 (07-09-2023),Old school 1983 (07-09-2023)

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Perhaps it's because of a near complete dismissal of his 80 grade speed.

    EDLC is Billy Hamilton (complete with 4-6 infield hits per month), and he hits the ball really, really hard.

    The combination of the two is nearly impossible to gauge statistically via pointing out other players.

    This was explained, fwiw, in multiple threads in both the minor league and ORG forums.
    And it's been wrong wherever it's been posted. Over 20,000 MLB players have taken the field in the game's history. That history tells us stuff. De La Cruz is not somehow immune to probability simply because you feel he should be. Interesting that you mention Billy Hamilton though, because you're using the same rationale used to support him- that Player A is unlike anything you've ever seen, therefore he "breaks" projections. It also wasn't true in Hamilton's case, and a ton of people who were similarly belligerent regarding Hamilton ended up silently slinking away tails-tucked when it turned out that probability DID apply to him, just like everyone else.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

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    Bob Sheed (07-09-2023)

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    And it's been wrong wherever it's been posted. Over 20,000 MLB players have taken the field in the game's history. That history tells us stuff. De La Cruz is not somehow immune to probability simply because you feel he should be. Interesting that you mention Billy Hamilton though, because you're using the same rationale used to support him- that Player A is unlike anything you've ever seen, therefore he "breaks" projections. It also wasn't true in Hamilton's case, and a ton of people who were similarly belligerent regarding Hamilton ended up silently slinking away tails-tucked when it turned out that probability DID apply to him, just like everyone else.
    You continue to disregard EDLC's speed.

    With that, I refuse to do this with you again.

    You don't listen, and when someone makes an erudite point, instead of accepting it, you belittle and insult them.

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    membengal (07-10-2023)

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The .350 BABIP I used was to provide a top tier that, if held over a career, would rank second among all players in the modern era, outpaced by only Rod Carew's .359 career BABIP. That's the kind of stuff we're talking about here, and Carew posted a full season MLB BABIP over .400 exactly once. The kind of numbers that are being thrown around aren't just super-aggressive, they're unprecedented even for the greatest hitters in the history of the game. There are only 30 full seasons EVER- dead ball, modern, whatever- where a player put up a .400 or higher BABIP.

    And yes, analytics can be used and are currently used to accurately project individual player performance. There are entire industries built around that as it relates to sports. I'm not sure why you seem to believe otherwise, but it's not true.
    Nearly everything EDLC has done so far is unprecedented, in both his major and minor league career. His scouting report is unprecedented. We’ve never seen anything like it. His numbers in his professional career are unprecedented. You are refusing to see that, and it’s blinding your analysis.

    It’s been shown to you that his career BABIP in over what would be 2 full years worth of data, is over .400. Every objective statistician would accept that as his meaningful data, and adjust their analysis accordingly.

    As for data used to project individual production. I never said it’s not accurate, just that it’s not as accurate as making general projections. Using broad strokes like the ones you are using works when talking about 100 players. But when talking about 1 player, adjustments need to be made, and objective statisticians make them.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  18. #896
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    You continue to disregard EDLC's speed.

    With that, I refuse to do this with you again.

    You don't listen, and when someone makes an erudite point, instead of accepting it, you belittle and insult them.
    While the second and third sentences of your post can be completely ignored ("erudite"...LOL?), I'm not disregarding anything about De La Cruz' skills or performance. As with RTG, if you have any other personal issues you'd like to discuss, take the PM route.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  19. #897
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Hogwash. This is the result of me having the audacity to encroach upon the minor league forum and forward a well-reasoned take on a prospect and detailed tiered potential projections. Clearly, anything but the very most over-the-top takes on De La Cruz were not welcome there. So, after making an honest effort, met with subsequent trolling, I bowed out; leaving you all to it. I would encourage anyone to read pages in the early to late 20s from that thread, IIRC. Along with a detailed analysis of a top prospect's potential future offensive output, I think it provides a great commentary about how detrimental the worst kind of groupthink can be and how "Lord of the Flies" some components of this site have become. Can't say I'm pleased to see the same people bring the same attitudes and behavior into the ORG. This forum, at least, is supposed to be above that line.
    My take is that you raised a number of valid analytically minded concerns, but didnít represent a lot of open mindedness towards there being a unique skillet and ability (such as crazy high exit velocities, speed, age adjustment) that portended towards validity that there was a strong case towards Elly being an exception (ie. might increase patience and walks when less hittable pitches were presented as he moved to the ladder).

    As I say, you made valid points, but wasnít a lot of admission to some of the blind spots in a predominant analytical case, of which we are all guilty of from time to time as we all donít watch prospects much.

    The relentless mocking was too far and didnít properly summarize your viewpoint, nor did it encourage healthy, even sided dialogue. This wasnít a Zack Stewart level quote with a bold proclamation that deserved such abuse


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  20. #898
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Nearly everything EDLC has done so far is unprecedented, in both his major and minor league career. His scouting report is unprecedented. We’ve never seen anything like it. His numbers in his professional career are unprecedented. You are refusing to see that, and it’s blinding your analysis.

    It’s been shown to you that his career BABIP in over what would be 2 full years worth of data, is over .400. Every objective statistician would accept that as his meaningful data, and adjust their analysis accordingly.

    As for data used to project individual production. I never said it’s not accurate, just that it’s not as accurate as making general projections. Using broad strokes like the ones you are using works when talking about 100 players. But when talking about 1 player, adjustments need to be made, and objective statisticians make them.
    It seems like a few times a week, we see anecdotes "Elly De La Cruz is the first player ever to do (xyz)," or "he is the first player since (insert someone in 1925) to do..."

    Today in pregame, Joey Votto said he's doing things "never seen before" on a baseball field.

    His first month as a big leaguer has been full of unprecedented and nearly unprecedented things.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  21. #899
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Nearly everything EDLC has done so far is unprecedented, in both his major and minor league career. His scouting report is unprecedented. We’ve never seen anything like it. His numbers in his professional career are unprecedented. You are refusing to see that, and it’s blinding your analysis.

    It’s been shown to you that his career BABIP in over what would be 2 full years worth of data, is over .400. Every objective statistician would accept that as his meaningful data, and adjust their analysis accordingly.

    As for data used to project individual production. I never said it’s not accurate, just that it’s not as accurate as making general projections. Using broad strokes like the ones you are using works when talking about 100 players. But when talking about 1 player, adjustments need to be made, and objective statisticians make them.
    Minor League BABIP results are consistently higher (quite a bit actually) than MLB BABIP. Were I not accounting for De La Cruz' MiLB BABIP, I would not have produced a tier as high as .350- which is, as I've explained, extreme MLB-outlier level. Your original premise was false, so there's really no need to respond to the rest of your post. It's all wrong.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  22. #900
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    ďThe guys we've had for the most part have been serviceable at this level.Ē

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