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Thread: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

  1. #901
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    I'm with Steel here.

    I think EDLC will be a superstar but using a .400 BABIP in any projection isn't reasonable. No matter the skillset, assuming a guy will do something never done before isn't sound methodology. I hope his BABIP is .800, but even an assumption of .350 is pretty generous.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Old school 1983 (07-09-2023),Revering4Blue (07-09-2023),Ron Madden (07-09-2023),SteelSD (07-09-2023)


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  4. #902
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm with Steel here.

    I think EDLC will be a superstar but using a .400 BABIP in any projection isn't reasonable. No matter the skillset, assuming a guy will do something never done before isn't sound methodology. I hope his BABIP is .800, but even an assumption of .350 is pretty generous.
    The reason he can beat those BABIP norms is because first, he hits the ball extremely hard a lot of the time and second, his speed can and probably will buy him a lot of cheap hits others donít get. So like I said earlier, I think he can sustain that kind of success for a couple of years, until he gets a bit slower, a bit bigger, possibly less hungry or injured etc.

  5. #903
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post

    You don't listen, and when someone makes an erudite point, instead of accepting it, you belittle and insult them.
    I believe there is a special place in hell for people that buy entities that others "root for" and treat it like any other regular business from a profit/loss standpoint.

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    SteelSD (07-09-2023)

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm with Steel here.

    I think EDLC will be a superstar but using a .400 BABIP in any projection isn't reasonable. No matter the skillset, assuming a guy will do something never done before isn't sound methodology. I hope his BABIP is .800, but even an assumption of .350 is pretty generous.
    Assuming that EDLC will be like other players isn’t a sound methodology either. He’s been in the bigs a few weeks and how many time have we seen him do things we’ve never seen before. And for those who followed him in the minors, this is not a surprise.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

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    IKnowNothing (07-09-2023)

  9. #905
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    It's not. De La Cruz isn't the first fast, strong, talented kid to play major league baseball. In MLB history, a .400 BABIP season is super-rarified air. Only 30 single full player seasons at or above that mark. That's all time. But in the modern era, you're not going to find a single guy who put up multiple seasons of a .400+ BABIP season, no matter how good they were.
    I like data a lot, but man, stop and smell the roses. This sounds like young Sheldon.
    "Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"

  10. #906
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tracy Jones View Post
    The reason he can beat those BABIP norms is because first, he hits the ball extremely hard a lot of the time and second, his speed can and probably will buy him a lot of cheap hits others don’t get. So like I said earlier, I think he can sustain that kind of success for a couple of years, until he gets a bit slower, a bit bigger, possibly less hungry or injured etc.

    How do De La Cruz' exit velocities match up with say, a young Eric Davis, Vlad Guerrerro (not Jr.), Barry Bonds, or Willie Mays, or Roberto Clemente? And has anyone actually checked to see if De La Cruz' HardHit% (rate of BIP at or above 95 MPH) ranks as outlier-level so far this season?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I like data a lot, but man, stop and smell the roses. This sounds like young Sheldon.
    Enjoying the game and understanding numbers aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Thank you, however for your feedback. I'm sure it was well-intended.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  11. #907
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    While the second and third sentences of your post can be completely ignored ("erudite"...LOL?), I'm not disregarding anything about De La Cruz' skills or performance. As with RTG, if you have any other personal issues you'd like to discuss, take the PM route.
    You’re the one that’s been calling people names in this thread, just for the record. Calling other people trolls because they dared poke fun at you in the other thread. The horror!

    Always with the PM stuff.

    We’ve all made our points here. Some of us think Elly is a special player. You do not because of what Jay Bruce and John Vander Wal did. Wonderful.

    “Succeeding poorly” is still funny, and it’s going to continue being funny. I don’t make the rules.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Bourgeois Zee (07-09-2023)

  13. #908
    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    How do De La Cruz' exit velocities match up with say, a young Eric Davis, Vlad Guerrerro (not Jr.), Barry Bonds, or Willie Mays, or Roberto Clemente? And has anyone actually checked to see if De La Cruz' HardHit% (rate of BIP at or above 95 MPH) ranks as outlier-level so far this season?

    - - - Updated - - -



    Enjoying the game and understanding numbers aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Thank you, however for your feedback. I'm sure it was well-intended.
    Don’t know honestly. It’s a good question though. The only guys on that list I’ve seen play are ED and Bonds. Just from what I remember Elly is faster than Bonds was, probably on par with ED. But then again the rule changes are definitely geared to a player with his skills, and it’ll probably take a year or two or three for everyone to really grasp what it takes to slow down a player like Elly.

    Edit: I’ve obviously seen young Vlad Sr. as well. From what I remember don’t think he was as fast as Elly, but that’s going solely on old and diminishing memories at this point.
    Last edited by Tracy Jones; 07-09-2023 at 06:23 PM.

  14. #909
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tracy Jones View Post
    Donít know honestly. Itís a good question though. The only guys on that list Iíve seen play are ED and Bonds. Just from what I remember Elly is faster than Bonds was, probably on par with ED. But then again the rule changes are definitely geared to a player with his skills, and itíll probably take a year or two or three for everyone to really grasp what it takes to slow down a player like Elly.

    Edit: Iíve obviously seen young Vlad Sr. as well. From what I remember donít think he was as fast as Elly, but thatís going solely on old and diminishing memories at this point.
    Vlad hit the third hardest ball I've ever seen live (Behind Reggie and Albert) all were HRs

  15. #910
    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Vlad hit the third hardest ball I've ever seen live (Behind Reggie and Albert) all were HRs
    Seemed like every ball that guy hit was hit hard. He never got cheated on a swing thatís for sure. If youíre talking about the Reggie ball at Tiger Stadium that was before my time. Iíve seen it though obviously. The hardest ball Iíve ever seen hit in person, on TV or otherwise was by Pujols off Brad Lidge in the playoffs in 2006 I think. That thing is still going.

  16. #911
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tracy Jones View Post
    The reason he can beat those BABIP norms is because first, he hits the ball extremely hard a lot of the time and second, his speed can and probably will buy him a lot of cheap hits others don’t get. So like I said earlier, I think he can sustain that kind of success for a couple of years, until he gets a bit slower, a bit bigger, possibly less hungry or injured etc.
    I understand that. He might beat those norms, I just wouldn't base my projections on it and go postal on people when somebody questions projecting something that has never been done.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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  18. #912
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Assuming that EDLC will be like other players isn’t a sound methodology either. He’s been in the bigs a few weeks and how many time have we seen him do things we’ve never seen before. And for those who followed him in the minors, this is not a surprise.
    assuming a .350 BABIP isn't assuming he'll be like other players.

    I followed him more in the minors than a lot of people who are beating their chests in this thread probably did and I'd be surprised if he ends with a BABIP of .400.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  19. #913
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    I donít think Iíd put money down on Elly having a BABIP of >.400 over say his next 2000 PA unless the odds were like 50-1.

    Heís great but I donít think heís historically ďbreak the gameĒ great.

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  21. #914
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I don’t think I’d put money down on Elly having a BABIP of >.400 over say his next 2000 PA unless the odds were like 50-1.

    He’s great but I don’t think he’s historically “break the game” great.
    He’s singled on a ground ball to the first baseman. Yesterday he stole 3 bases on 2 pitches. We are literally watching him break the game right now, and even other MLB players can’t believe what they are seeing.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

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    IKnowNothing (07-10-2023)

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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    assuming a .350 BABIP isn't assuming he'll be like other players.

    I followed him more in the minors than a lot of people who are beating their chests in this thread probably did and I'd be surprised if he ends with a BABIP of .400.
    He might not have a .400 BABIP, but I would guess it’s higher than .350, like way higher. I think it’s a safe bet that he will have the highest BABIP ever in the history of baseball. All of his tools tells us that.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024


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