Turn Off Ads?
Page 62 of 68 FirstFirst ... 1252585960616263646566 ... LastLast
Results 916 to 930 of 1006

Thread: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

  1. #916
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    32,238

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He might not have a .400 BABIP, but I would guess it’s higher than .350, like way higher. I think it’s a safe bet that he will have the highest BABIP ever in the history of baseball. All of his tools tells us that.
    By the time his career is over, I'll probably be dead of old age, otherwise I'd bet you on this.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  2. Likes:

    kaldaniels (07-09-2023)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #917
    Just a Fan RiverfrontRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Arizona
    Posts
    1,294

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    I waiting for him to beat the throw to first on a dropped third strike, steal second, third and then home. I don't think that's ever been done, but he's the one to do it. Hopefully it'll be a "steal-off" in the bottom of the 9th.

  5. #918
    Member traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Columbus, OH area
    Posts
    19,924

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    How do De La Cruz' exit velocities match up with say, a young Eric Davis, Vlad Guerrerro (not Jr.), Barry Bonds, or Willie Mays, or Roberto Clemente? And has anyone actually checked to see if De La Cruz' HardHit% (rate of BIP at or above 95 MPH) ranks as outlier-level so far this season?

    - - - Updated - - -



    Enjoying the game and understanding numbers aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Thank you, however for your feedback. I'm sure it was well-intended.
    Dissecting BABIP with all that is going on with a talent like Elly is not "understanding numbers," it is pedantic naysaying.
    "Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"

  6. Likes:

    RedTeamGo! (07-09-2023)

  7. #919
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,904

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Honestly, I'm all for analysis.

    But diminishing what the guy has accomplished as pro so far just because his BABIP is perceived as being too high is just being contrarian. Seriously, it's just over analysis for the sake of argument.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. Likes:

    Bourgeois Zee (07-09-2023),RedTeamGo! (07-09-2023),Roy Tucker (07-09-2023),traderumor (07-09-2023),Wonderful Monds (07-09-2023)

  9. #920
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    11,514

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    “The guy is doing some things that are unsustainable and will even out, as will the other aspects of his game as he is a 21 year old who’s played 30 major league games in his life” is a reasonable take that I think few people would take offense at and provokes measured discussion

    “Succeeding poorly” is clearly purposefully provocative, and doubling down on it while the guy is being celebrated across the league as the next big phenom who’s transcending the game itself, just feels like trolling, or at best taking a dump on a guy who’s making baseball as fun and exciting for Reds fans in a way they haven’t experience since they were probably kids, which feels lame.

    Beyond that it’s just beneath everyone involved, and also clearly absurd at face value to watch anything that Elly is doing and describing his play in anyway as “poorly” right now.

  10. Likes:

    Brutus (07-09-2023),membengal (07-10-2023),RedTeamGo! (07-09-2023),traderumor (07-09-2023)

  11. #921
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    In Your Head
    Posts
    10,824

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tracy Jones View Post
    Donít know honestly. Itís a good question though. The only guys on that list Iíve seen play are ED and Bonds. Just from what I remember Elly is faster than Bonds was, probably on par with ED. But then again the rule changes are definitely geared to a player with his skills, and itíll probably take a year or two or three for everyone to really grasp what it takes to slow down a player like Elly.

    Edit: Iíve obviously seen young Vlad Sr. as well. From what I remember donít think he was as fast as Elly, but thatís going solely on old and diminishing memories at this point.
    We'll likely never know for players prior to the Statcast era. Not speaking to you specifically, but that's a problem with some of the checks being written by keyboards in this thread. The concept being forwarded is that De La Cruz' exit velocity is an historical abnormality, and as such lends itself to his BABIP overage. But we have only limited (post-2015) data to provide context. That taints perspective, especially for younger fans, most of whom have no reliable historical perspective. And frankly, I'd suggest that nearly all of us are lacking the kind of reliable context it would take to make the kind of "never-ever before seen" demands I'm hearing regarding De La Cruz. As you noted, over time memories fade or are replaced with artificially enhanced or diminished rememberances.

    The next issue is that, if a claim is made that De La Cruz is putting up and will continue to put up outlier-level BABIP performances due to high velocity batted balls, that needs to check out. It actually doesn't. Among players with 50 or more batted ball events this season, De La Cruz currently ranks 59th in HardHit%, 110th in average Exit Velocity (90.4 MPH), and 86th in Ground Ball EV. That's all around top 25% or better, but his 2023 MLB EV results are not elite, and certainly not outlier-level. What's very interesting is that his average batted ball travels only 127 feet (390th of 406 hitters). That might support legging out some infield hits and muscling a few bloopers over infielders' heads, but it doesn't support that his BABIP is being driven by him smoking the ball all over the park at extreme velocity levels as being advertised in this thread. Instead, he's likely getting a more than a couple of hits from low-to-moderate quality contact. There's plenty of time for him to grow those rates, but his BABIP has not been produced as claimed so far. Those claims have been almost exclusively products of confirmation bias; that because De La Cruz is expected to post outlier exit velocities, and because positive results are often associated with high exit velocity, then exit velocity must be causing the results. Yet, there's little in the way of reliable historical context to demand that De La Cruz is a true outlier, nor is there data to support that his current BABIP is a product of outlier-level exit velocity, primarily because he's producing outlier-level exit velocity consistently.

    Here's the data, if anyone is interested:

    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...4&sortDir=desc
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  12. #922
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    11,514

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Dissecting BABIP with all that is going on with a talent like Elly is not "understanding numbers," it is pedantic naysaying.
    I don’t know if Elly is the fastest guy to ever play the game or has the most power to ever play the game, but if you could quantify both of those tools of his to a number, and then added them both up, I would not be surprised if he was top 10 all time in terms of possessing combined raw speed and power/exit velocity. As such, I expect Elly will very likely produce some historic, record breaking BABIP numbers over his career. A career .400 BABIP no, but he appears to have the raw talent of a HOFer. I would not be surprised if he put up a top 10 all time career BABIP in modern ball by the time it’s all said and done for him.

  13. #923
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    33,809

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The concept being forwarded is that De La Cruz' exit velocity is an historical abnormality, and as such lends itself to his BABIP overage.
    I didn't find anyone saying this. Maybe someone did, but they are wrong if they did.

    The argument is that we have never seen anyone who has both De La Cruz' running speed and exit velocity. That combination so far is resulting in many hits that were would not be hits for anyone else.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  14. #924
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    In Your Head
    Posts
    10,824

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    “The guy is doing some things that are unsustainable and will even out, as will the other aspects of his game as he is a 21 year old who’s played 30 major league games in his life” is a reasonable take that I think few people would take offense at and provokes measured discussion

    “Succeeding poorly” is clearly purposefully provocative, and doubling down on it while the guy is being celebrated across the league as the next big phenom who’s transcending the game itself, just feels like trolling, or at best taking a dump on a guy who’s making baseball as fun and exciting for Reds fans in a way they haven’t experience since they were probably kids, which feels lame.

    Beyond that it’s just beneath everyone involved, and also clearly absurd at face value to watch anything that Elly is doing and describing his play in anyway as “poorly” right now.
    "Succeeding poorly" and "failing well" are normal phrases I've used for years here. There's nothing "purposefully provactive" about them. I'm not going to apologize for someone else trying to troll me with one of those phases, nor am I sorry for responding to the trolling attempt(s), nor is it my responsiblity to post only takes you care for.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Dissecting BABIP with all that is going on with a talent like Elly is not "understanding numbers," it is pedantic naysaying.
    Thank you again for your feedback. Very kind, indeed.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  15. #925
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    In Your Head
    Posts
    10,824

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I didn't find anyone saying this. Maybe someone did, but they are wrong if they did.

    The argument is that we have never seen anyone who has both De La Cruz' running speed and exit velocity. That combination so far is resulting in many hits that were would not be hits for anyone else.
    You don't think that someone positioning that De La Cruz hits the ball as hard as Aaron Judge- the exit velocity poster child- to be a direct claim that he produces outlier-level exit velocity? The concept of outlier-level exit velocity has ALWAYS been part and parcel to the "unicorn" claims- maybe not the sole reason, but intergral to it.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  16. #926
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    11,514

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    "Succeeding poorly" and "failing well" are normal phrases I've used for years here. There's nothing "purposefully provactive" about them. I'm not going to apologize for someone else trying to troll me with one of those phases, nor am I sorry for responding to the trolling attempt(s), nor is it my responsiblity to post only takes you care for.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Thank you again for your feedback. Very kind, indeed.
    ok man

  17. Likes:

    RedTeamGo! (07-09-2023)

  18. #927
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    11,514

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Like I said, the actual substance of the take isn’t even all that objectionable, just seems like you’re getting a bit caught in the weeds with who’s trolling who and then counter-trolling them back, so it just comes off as being hostile to everyone who is pro-Elly, which as you’d expect is essentially literally every single Reds fan and person here.

    Just for the record though I’ve been reading the board for like 20 years here now and that phrasing didn’t sound familiar to me before this whole discussion, so it admittedly struck me as being amusing as well.

  19. #928
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    57,385

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I didn't find anyone saying this. Maybe someone did, but they are wrong if they did.

    The argument is that we have never seen anyone who has both De La Cruz' running speed and exit velocity. That combination so far is resulting in many hits that were would not be hits for anyone else.
    Dick Wakefield, Pete Reiser.... and on and on.

    One thing about a 21-year old phenom that we all can agree on is that 21 is a hell of a young age for a MLB player.

    That's why I like to tap the brakes on what that player will do.

    I have no horse in this race, but I certainly am not minting a pathway for success no matter what, shout out to Jose Fernandez.

    Not sure what prize you win when a guy goes off and becomes the next Mike Trout or Dick Wakefield and you knew it before he set foot on the field but it must be swell. My point is there seems to be a lot of opinions and not much real MLB data.

    So I'm going to pull up a chair and see what happens to a guy that is supposed to have Rod Carew's BABIP, Mantle's power and Roberto's arm.

    It's going to be interesting

    First 29 games, since 1969 Reds players


    Code:
    Player					        PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB						
    Aristides Aquino				112	15	4	0	14	2	0	8	27	.324	.384	.775	1.158	79						
    Austin Kearns					121	21	7	0	6	1	0	20	28	.362	.496	.628	1.124	59						
    Chris Dickerson					120	14	9	2	6	5	3	16	34	.307	.412	.614	1.026	62						
    Bernie Carbo					105	15	3	1	6	4	1	20	16	.298	.433	.571	1.004	48						
    Juan Francisco					55	15	3	0	2	0	0	1	19	.377	.400	.547	.947	29						
    Josh Hamilton					110	12	5	1	8	2	0	11	20	.268	.345	.588	.933	57						
    Ken Griffey					106	24	5	2	3	4	2	8	17	.347	.396	.531	.927	52						
    Nick Esasky					119	17	6	2	7	3	0	7	32	.294	.345	.578	.923	63						
    Chris Heisey					69	10	2	1	5	0	1	5	16	.286	.333	.587	.921	37						
    Adam Dunn					133	14	5	1	8	1	0	22	34	.255	.383	.536	.920	59						
    Elly De La Cruz					131	25	9	2	4	16	2	8	38	.328	.366	.533	.899	65						
    Matt McLain					136	27	8	3	3	3	2	9	38	.325	.375	.508	.883	64						
    Jesse Winker					92	16	3	0	5	1	0	10	16	.293	.370	.512	.882	42						
    D.T. Cromer					45	9	4	0	1	0	0	1	11	.341	.364	.512	.876	21						
    Norris Hopper					58	16	1	0	1	2	2	6	5	.360	.421	.440	.861	22						
    Corky Miller					99	9	8	0	5	1	0	6	24	.259	.327	.529	.856	45						
    Tracy Jones					90	24	3	0	2	6	0	6	5	.349	.389	.458	.847	38						
    Chris Sabo					128	21	9	0	6	11	2	4	10	.295	.320	.516	.837	63						
    Joey Votto					101	18	7	0	4	1	0	5	18	.302	.337	.500	.837	48						
    Brady Clark					43	10	1	0	2	1	0	1	4	.325	.333	.500	.833	20						
    Ray Knight					35	7	3	1	0	0	0	1	4	.324	.343	.471	.813	16						
    Jay Bruce					127	22	6	0	4	2	2	13	29	.288	.362	.450	.813	50						
    Jeff Branson					45	8	5	0	0	0	0	2	8	.325	.349	.450	.799	18						
    Tyler Stephenson				80	17	2	0	3	0	0	4	22	.297	.350	.446	.796	33						
    Todd Frazier					89	9	4	0	6	0	0	6	20	.232	.292	.500	.792	41						
    Nick Senzel					139	20	7	2	4	5	3	12	36	.264	.326	.448	.774	56						
    Jeff Treadway					114	24	6	0	2	1	0	5	8	.308	.345	.423	.769	44						
    Willie Greene					104	16	5	2	2	0	2	10	23	.269	.337	.430	.767	40						
    Derrick Robinson				66	16	2	0	0	1	1	7	15	.321	.406	.357	.763	20						
    Zack Cozart					122	22	5	2	3	0	0	6	21	.281	.322	.439	.761	50						
    Drew Stubbs					137	22	2	1	7	7	4	9	37	.250	.299	.445	.745	57						
    Duane Walker					97	17	5	0	2	1	1	7	20	.276	.337	.402	.739	35						
    Reggie Sanders					119	22	4	2	3	9	2	6	25	.274	.311	.425	.736	48						
    Gary Redus					130	17	5	2	5	15	2	8	27	.242	.292	.442	.734	53						
    Dave Concepciůn					101	22	4	0	1	1	0	9	12	.297	.360	.374	.734	34						
    Jonathan India					108	14	2	2	3	1	1	10	25	.233	.333	.400	.733	36						
    Chris Denorfia					81	13	5	0	1	1	1	9	14	.268	.350	.380	.730	27						
    Dernell Stenson					75	9	5	0	2	0	0	8	21	.242	.320	.409	.729	27						
    Ramůn Cabrera					85	19	4	0	1	1	1	4	15	.304	.333	.392	.726	31

  20. Likes:

    mth123 (07-10-2023),Revering4Blue (07-10-2023),SteelSD (07-09-2023)

  21. #929
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    33,809

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Dick Wakefield, Pete Reiser.... and on and on.

    One thing about a 21-year old phenom that we all can agree on is that 21 is a hell of a young age for a MLB player.

    That's why I like to tap the brakes on what that player will do.

    I have no horse in this race, but I certainly am not minting a pathway for success no matter what, shout out to Jose Fernandez.

    Not sure what prize you win when a guy goes off and becomes the next Mike Trout or Dick Wakefield and you knew it before he set foot on the field but it must be swell. My point is there seems to be a lot of opinions and not much real MLB data.

    So I'm going to pull up a chair and see what happens to a guy that is supposed to have Rod Carew's BABIP, Mantle's power and Roberto's arm.

    It's going to be interesting
    I am not, and and I don’t think anyone else here is, basing their opinions of Elly De La Cruz on his stats after his first 30 games.

    We are basing it off of the tools that we have seen in both the majors and the minors, and how he is doing things at the major league level that none of us have ever seen before, nor thought we would ever see.

    Nobody is trying to win a prize, we are just being honest about what we are seeing.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  22. #930
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,958

    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Not trying to be Debbie Downer but the steal of home…

    You can’t do that unless you have plus or plus-plus speed. I get it.

    But you also can’t do it if the other team is paying attention. Hell of a baseball IQ but you only are going to get away with that a handful of times if that.

  23. Likes:

    mth123 (07-10-2023)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator