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Thread: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

  1. #931
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Not trying to be Debbie Downer but the steal of home…

    You can’t do that unless you have plus or plus-plus speed. I get it.

    But you also can’t do it if the other team is paying attention. Hell of a baseball IQ but you only are going to get away with that a handful of times if that.

    A pitcher turning his back like that isn't uncommon in baseball. You're taught not to do it, but most guys do because not more than a couple players in Major League Baseball have the male parts to do what he did.

    It was certainly a bit of a fluke because the third baseman was also playing away and didn't get back to even necessitate a throw. Nonetheless, the fact pitchers must now spend so much time worrying about this situation is exactly why he is special.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  4. #932
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    "We are going to see things. We are going to see things you just do not see on a baseball field." -- Joey Votto

    This is what his peers are saying about him right now. A veteran all-star that has been playing 20 years of professional baseball. But the slow down folks are saying hold up.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #933
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Not trying to be Debbie Downer but the steal of home…

    You can’t do that unless you have plus or plus-plus speed. I get it.

    But you also can’t do it if the other team is paying attention. Hell of a baseball IQ but you only are going to get away with that a handful of times if that.
    Wait, you mean De La Cruz isn’t going to steal home every game? What a disappointment.

    Jackie Robinson has the most steals of home in the modern era, with 19. Only a handful have more than 10.

    This was the second time De La Cruz tried to steal home. He was out in the first attempt because he miss timed it. If he has two steals of home attempts every month and it 50% successful on them, he’s passing Robinson on that list right about the time he reaches free agency.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  6. #934
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    I guess I’m just the stupid “slow down” guy saying let’s hold off on assuming/positing Elly steals home more than #42 did.

    Silly me. Nothing to see here, carry on.

  7. #935
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Like I said, the actual substance of the take isn’t even all that objectionable, just seems like you’re getting a bit caught in the weeds with who’s trolling who and then counter-trolling them back, so it just comes off as being hostile to everyone who is pro-Elly, which as you’d expect is essentially literally every single Reds fan and person here.

    Just for the record though I’ve been reading the board for like 20 years here now and that phrasing didn’t sound familiar to me before this whole discussion, so it admittedly struck me as being amusing as well.
    Wonder, I think you're a good dude. But I'm not responsible for the emotional reactions of others if they don't like my take on a player, although it is amusing when it's in response to a player I actually like. I mean, I could sorta' get it in discussions like the Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza threads. Those players were almost certainly going to stink, so I kinda' understand people getting emotional when their worlds got turned upside-down. But in this case, I think De La Cruz is going to be good, possibly really REALLY good. And while waiting to see how good, I don't think there's anything wrong with identifying opportunities or potential challenges that player faces. I don't know why that's an anathema to some, nor do I care. I simply cannot fathom having such deep emotional ties to a ballplayer that they can't handle even the mildest of critiques. Regardless, that's for them to get right with on their own.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  9. #936
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I guess I’m just the stupid “slow down” guy saying let’s hold off on assuming/positing Elly steals home more than #42 did.

    Silly me. Nothing to see here, carry on.
    Haha. The point of my post wasn’t to predict that De La Cruz was going to break Robinson’s mark, but that stealing home is extremely rare. If De La Cruz can steal home 2-3 times a season, he will be legendary. He’s already done it once in his first 30 games.

    He may never steal home again, but that steal of home definitely doesn’t scream, “slow down.”
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  10. #937
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I guess I’m just the stupid “slow down” guy saying let’s hold off on assuming/positing Elly steals home more than #42 did.

    Silly me. Nothing to see here, carry on.
    Literally no one is in this thread acting like a steal of home is going to be commonplace. It's just a blanket argumentative statement.

    The guy is doing things in his first 30 days we haven't seen before as Reds' fans, and instead of being able to enjoy what is likely the most talented prospect the Reds have had in most peoples' lifetimes, everyone has to nitpick his every accomplishment, 'well, akshually, this isn't sustainable.'
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  12. #938
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Wonder, I think you're a good dude. But I'm not responsible for the emotional reactions of others if they don't like my take on a player, although it is amusing when it's in response to a player I actually like. I mean, I could sorta' get it in discussions like the Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza threads. Those players were almost certainly going to stink, so I kinda' understand people getting emotional when their worlds got turned upside-down. But in this case, I think De La Cruz is going to be good, possibly really REALLY good. And while waiting to see how good, I don't think there's anything wrong with identifying opportunities or potential challenges that player faces. I don't know why that's an anathema to some, nor do I care. I simply cannot fathom having such deep emotional ties to a ballplayer that they can't handle even the mildest of critiques. Regardless, that's for them to get right with on their own.
    I get where it’s coming from, cuz it’s just the caveman tribal brain thing we’ve all got going on that’s driven us to sports in the first place. Elly is the star of the show right now and he’s out there doing crazy **** and making headlines every other day and whatnot, and hell, it’s fun to get swept up in the craze of it all. So I see where people come from getting defensive over the guy, because like I alluded to earlier, just speaking for myself and a lot of other people here, watching him is exciting and mind bending in a way that baseball/sports in general haven’t been since I was a kid. It sort of feels like watching a guy find a way to show you new things again, like he somehow did the baseball equivalent of inventing a new color or something. So it’s just a way to get wrapped up in like a phenomenon that doesn’t come around too many times in life, at least in regards to this whole hobby.

  13. #939
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    I think Elly is a superstar. I love watching him and I want the Reds to sign him long-term.

    Do I think he will be more productive than a composite of Acuna, FTJ, Corbin Carroll, JRod? No I do not. But I do think he will be in that tier when it comes to overall production and I’d like him to sign a JRod/CC type contract…to which there has been push back to such an idea because he is historically different.

    Like to those who say we’ve never seen anything like him before…give me your 2024 statline for him.

  14. #940
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    The thing for me is that - while he’s likely not going to sustain a whole career out of having a 60% groundball rate with a .400 BABIP beating out grounders to the first baseman with headfirst slides - describing it as succeeding poorly paints what he’s doing in like a “glass half empty” light, but the thing is sustainable or not, watching him do it has been insane and mind blowing and miraculously fun. So I think that’s where some exception in the phrasing lies.

    Elly is also likely to adjust to the heavy diet of breaking balls he’s been getting up here, start putting the ball in the air more, IMO will probably start showing more of the advanced plate discipline he was showing in Louisville (and has flashed at times up here already) and become a more well rounded star player, even with a normalized BABIP.

    But for the time being, it’s also fun to watch him glitch out opposing teams and essentially break the game of baseball.

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  16. #941
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I think Elly is a superstar. I love watching him and I want the Reds to sign him long-term.

    Do I think he will be more productive than a composite of Acuna, FTJ, Corbin Carroll, JRod? No I do not. But I do think he will be in that tier when it comes to overall production and I’d like him to sign a JRod/CC type contract…to which there has been push back to such an idea because he is historically different.

    Like to those who say we’ve never seen anything like him before…give me your 2024 statline for him.
    I think just based off watching him up here, he could put up his Louisville stats from this year in the majors. So like a .300/.400/.600 guy. Combined with his speed and defense, I think that would make him the best of that bunch, but I also haven’t checked to see what the rest of those dudes up to date numbers are.

  17. #942
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    90.2 exit velo and 48% hard hit rate right now. Even if those numbers normalize a bit, his speed will ensure that he has a high BABip.

    As for 2024, I’ll say .280/.340/.520 with 25 HR and 55 SB

    This will make him an All-Star and probably top-15 in MVP voting.

    I think he’s maybe a 5.0 WAR player already.

    As for the other part… fans process/enjoy things in different ways. Some people like effusive praise; others like concern and worry. I won’t judge anyone - except of course the actual trolls.

    However you slice it, this is the most fun I’ve ever had watching Reds baseball. I expect that part to continue.

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  19. #943
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    Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I think just based off watching him up here, he could put up his Louisville stats from this year in the majors. So like a .300/.400/.600 guy. Combined with his speed and defense, I think that would make him the best of that bunch, but I also haven’t checked to see what the rest of those dudes up to date numbers are.
    There have been 1233 players who played in 130 games with an OPS + above average since 2010

    In that time 16 instances of a .300/.400/.600 season occurred and only 2 guys (Cabrera and Harper) have done it twice.

    16 times, 1.3%

    That's a lot to ask

  20. #944
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    It sort of feels like watching a guy find a way to show you new things again, like he somehow did the baseball equivalent of inventing a new color or something.
    I like that sentence a lot. Well done.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

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  22. #945
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I think Elly is a superstar. I love watching him and I want the Reds to sign him long-term.

    Do I think he will be more productive than a composite of Acuna, FTJ, Corbin Carroll, JRod? No I do not. But I do think he will be in that tier when it comes to overall production and I’d like him to sign a JRod/CC type contract…to which there has been push back to such an idea because he is historically different.

    Like to those who say we’ve never seen anything like him before…give me your 2024 statline for him.
    Why must people have to give a projection in order to validate their beliefs he's a unique talent? Exceptional players are exceptional because they do rare things. Doing a rare thing shouldn't need a qualifier or reminder that it's rare. We don't need to debate exactly how often the rare accomplishment will be accomplished.

    He just became the first player in Major League history to have 40+ hits and 15+ steals in his first 30 games. It's absolutely clear the Reds have not had anyone like him before, or not in recent memory in terms of skillset. This doesn't have to be a PECOTA exercise to think that.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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