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Thread: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

  1. #946
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    There have been 1233 players who played in 130 games with an OPS + above average since 2010

    In that time 16 instances of a .300/.400/.600 season occurred and only 2 guys (Cabrera and Harper) have done it twice.

    16 times, 1.3%

    That's a lot to ask
    Just to split hairs on it, even Elly’s Louisville numbers wouldn’t hit the exact round number cutoff as he was .298/.398 in AAA this year in BA/OBP. Fudging it ever slightly - Acuna actually probably isn’t a bad comp for what Elly could be. 41 steals already this year, .331 average .408 OBP .582 SLG. He’s just a few points away from what I was suggesting for EDLC.

    I could see Elly going wild with BABIP and hammering the ball and having a similar crazy high BA season, I could also see him trading off a bit of BA compared to Acuna but adding more in terms of sheer power and slugging, etc.

    But I do think Elly will get one of those .300/.400/.600 seasons though - which will probably be a bit more common with rule changes specifically eliminating the shift presumably providing a boost to batting averages


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  3. #947
    Chicks dig the wRC+ villain612's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan9988 View Post
    I think he’s maybe a 5.0 WAR player already.
    According to Fangraphs, Elly has produced 1.2 WAR in 29 games. The math translates that into 6.7 WAR over 162 games.
    Quote Originally Posted by fipp View Post
    How old are you? Do you want to be humiliated?

  4. #948
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Steel, forget the minutia. Itís confusing things and misidentifying your viewpoint. Make it more concise and clear.

    Whatís your 5 year projection of Elly?


    "I'm not mad, I just type aggressively"
    -Rdirtypirates (Sep 6, 2023)

  5. #949
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Steel, forget the minutia. It’s confusing things and misidentifying your viewpoint. Make it more concise and clear.

    What’s your 5 year projection of Elly?
    Patrick, I've already produced a matrix with that kind of info. I'd like to think he'll fall on the higher end of the spectrum, but right now I'm going to sit back and watch how things play out. If/when I'm ready to post more, I'll let you know.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

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  7. #950
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    the idea that a young player will "develop" and thus improve to outpace his previous performance isn't a matter of fact; it's a matter of hope.
    Seems like this should go both ways, no? This particular young player has over 1000 minor league ABs where he had a BABIP of .400. Expecting this young player to regress dramatically in opposition of their entire career's worth of numbers is a matter of hope, no?
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  8. #951
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    cool. a thread about a generational talent ON THE REDS has become boring.

    peace.

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  10. #952
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    thanks for the link - that was a fun read.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

  11. #953
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Seems like this should go both ways, no? This particular young player has over 1000 minor league ABs where he had a BABIP of .400. Expecting this young player to regress dramatically in opposition of their entire career's worth of numbers is a matter of hope, no?
    That whole quote you quoted doesn’t match up with reality. 21 year old MLB rookies improve all the time, especially over their first 30 games. MLB history is full of examples of young players improving.

    Joey Votto, for example, started off strong, with a .879 OPS, 126 OPS+ after his first full season. Then improved to a .980 OPS, 160 OPS+ over his next 8 seasons. And he was 24 in his rookie season.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  12. #954
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    From ESPN:

    De La Cruz has 16 stolen bases in 30 games and went 2-for-5 Saturday to improve his batting average to .328. He's the first player in MLB history with at least 40 hits and 15 stolen bases in his first 30 career games in the majors, according to ESPN Stats & Information research

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  14. #955
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Seems like this should go both ways, no? This particular young player has over 1000 minor league ABs where he had a BABIP of .400. Expecting this young player to regress dramatically in opposition of their entire career's worth of numbers is a matter of hope, no?
    Did you just go to the well and pull out a bucket of Jose Peraza? I'll attach a link to the post you truncated out of context, which was crafted in response to a trolling attempt by someone I think you know very well. Intimately, I might say. Below is a link for those who want to read your selected blast from the past, complete with you attempting to stab at people at the most opportune moment possible, and where yours truly ended up projecting Peraza's OPS at .680 versus his final .678 (99.7% accuracy w/each component at 95% or higher) using the kind of methodology you're demanding can't possibly be right. If anyone wants to understand my frustration, read a bunch of that thread. Please.

    And you're quoting from a post to which you began your next response, at the time, by saying, "Well written post, a lot of very interesting stuff." If I ever forgot to thank you for those kind words, I hope you can appreciate that I will not take the opportunity to do so now.

    https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...ht=Jose+Peraza

    Finally, you should really apologize to 75' for trying to create the quagmire he felt compelled to step towards. And whatever you do, please do NOT start pulling up and posting things from the Billy Hamilton theads. Those are virtual snakepits of people's poor choices. Have some consideration for their feelings, for goodness sake.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  15. #956
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Did you just go to the well and pull out a bucket of Jose Peraza? I'll attach a link to the post you truncated out of context, which was crafted in response to a trolling attempt by someone I think you know very well. Intimately, I might say. Below is a link for those who want to read your selected blast from the past, complete with you attempting to stab at people at the most opportune moment possible, and where yours truly ended up projecting Peraza's OPS at .680 versus his final .678 (99.7% accuracy w/each component at 95% or higher) using the kind of methodology you're demanding can't possibly be right. If anyone wants to understand my frustration, read a bunch of that thread. Please.

    And you're quoting from a post to which you began your next response, at the time, by saying, "Well written post, a lot of very interesting stuff." If I ever forgot to thank you for those kind words, I hope you can appreciate that I will not take the opportunity to do so now.

    https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...ht=Jose+Peraza

    Finally, you should really apologize to 75' for trying to create the quagmire he felt compelled to step towards. And whatever you do, please do NOT start pulling up and posting things from the Billy Hamilton theads. Those are virtual snakepits of people's poor choices. Have some consideration for their feelings, for goodness sake.
    I pulled the quote because you implied there was no reason to be patient (which is all I advocated for with Peraza, not that he was good, which you didn’t understand), and now you are advocating for patience with EDLC and saying his minor league numbers don’t really matter. So, which is it?

    And enough with the saying everyone is trolling you. You aren’t a victim. Quit acting like one, it’s pathetic.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  16. #957
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Do Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey next!!!
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  17. #958
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Hey. This is all supposed to be fun. Don’t be a buzz kill.
    She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning

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  19. #959
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Nope. It all sucks. Elly sucks. All reds suck. There’s never any reason to be happy. 20 years here on this forum and I really should know that by now.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

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  21. #960
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    Re: Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Hey. This is all supposed to be fun. Don’t be a buzz kill.

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