Welcome to The Show Elly De La Cruz!

[RiverfrontRed]

Stealing bases is hard on the body. EDLC should steal only when it’s really necessary.

My concern is a hand injury. I watch his face after every steal to see if he is grimacing in pain.

[SunDeck]

My concern is a hand injury. I watch his face after every steal to see if he is grimacing in pain.

He's getting between bases quick enough that sliding head first isn't really necessary, if it is really faster. I've always grimaced when guys go in that way ESPECIALLY, at the plate.

[Wonderful Monds]

I’m moreso wondering if Elly will be the first 50/50 guy

[Sea Ray]

He's getting between bases quick enough that sliding head first isn't really necessary, if it is really faster. I've always grimaced when guys go in that way ESPECIALLY, at the plate.

I also worry about those head first slides but guys like O'Neil Cruz and our own Dave Concepcion got seriously injured sliding feet first so I don't know which is the safest

[Patrick Bateman]

Are you saying I’m not honest? Lol. When you project someone, you consider both their floor potential and their ceiling potential. I don’t think 30 is his potential ceiling. That’s 45-50.

In this case, no, felt intellectually dishonest.

Discussion about Elly's "floor" next season... seems a bit crazy to say he's at minimum going to hit 30 bombs next year. That's not a minimum. It's definitely possible, if he can start elevating more consistently and make more use out of high exit velocity, but presently, 30 homers would be on the mid/high end range of likely outcomes next year, than it is a floor.

[JFLegal]

In this case, no, felt intellectually dishonest.

Discussion about Elly's "floor" next season... seems a bit crazy to say he's at minimum going to hit 30 bombs next year. That's not a minimum. It's definitely possible, if he can start elevating more consistently and make more use out of high exit velocity, but presently, 30 homers would be on the mid/high end range of likely outcomes next year, than it is a floor.

If Elly stays healthy, 30 HRs is absolutely his floor each season moving forward IMO.

[Patrick Bateman]

With the majority of his season so far in AAA, he is on track for about 30, or a few less this season across two levels. Thats floor?

[westofyou]

He has averaged a HR every 25 PA's as a pro, so if he bats 625 times in MLB with that rate he'd have 25.

[RiverfrontRed]

In this case, no, felt intellectually dishonest.

Discussion about Elly's "floor" next season... seems a bit crazy to say he's at minimum going to hit 30 bombs next year. That's not a minimum. It's definitely possible, if he can start elevating more consistently and make more use out of high exit velocity, but presently, 30 homers would be on the mid/high end range of likely outcomes next year, than it is a floor.

Okay, I will elaborate since you feel there's intellectual dishonesty happening. I'd consider his first full year - next year to likely be his floor. I do think he will hit 30 home runs next year - that's MY projection. As for his ceiling in the next 2-5 years, I think it's more 40-50. As far as POTENTIAL, the word you seem to have a problem with my usage, at this point both his floor and his ceiling are projections and based on potential. At this point, him hitting 5 career home runs is only potential, since he hasn't done it yet.

Sorry, if my communication was lacking. I try to avoid making essays in my posts, so I don't always elaborate until it turns into discussion.

[RustyJ]

Defining floor gets into semantics. It seems like the approach of filling up the zone with offspeed has Elly on the back foot a little bit so far; the full count strikeouts early have turned into lots of ground balls and tentative swings as he’s amped up the aggressiveness. (The unicorn-ness lies in him posting all star numbers during what looks to me like an adjustment period)

I’m biased and Major League Baseball is really hard, but he’s demonstrated too much aptitude along the way for me to believe he’s going to remain stuck in a hole for long. Whatever his floor is, I just think we’re gonna see an absolute laser show in the not too distant future.

[CesarGeronimo]

Okay, I will elaborate since you feel there's intellectual dishonesty happening. I'd consider his first full year - next year to likely be his floor. I do think he will hit 30 home runs next year - that's MY projection. As for his ceiling in the next 2-5 years, I think it's more 40-50. As far as POTENTIAL, the word you seem to have a problem with my usage, at this point both his floor and his ceiling are projections and based on potential. At this point, him hitting 5 career home runs is only potential, since he hasn't done it yet.

Sorry, if my communication was lacking. I try to avoid making essays in my posts, so I don't always elaborate until it turns into discussion.

It doesn't seem like intellectual dishonesty, but I think you use the word floor differently than some people would. To me, his floor isn't the same as my projection for next year -- or for any year. His floor is the lowest number I think he might hit next year or any year.

For instance, I won't disagree with your projection of 30 home runs next year if he keeps adapting well, but I also think a floor of maybe 22 is reasonable.

[JCM11]

Elly's HR ceiling depends on if the Reds can bat someone behind him that'll get him pitches to hit. Every since he vaporized that up and in fastball by Syndergaard 90% of the pitches he's seen has been soft stuff down and away. Pitchers seem content to give him junk and see if they can get borderline strike calls or him to chase. I think he needs to commit to driving balls the other way in order to boost the HR total because I don't see many pitcher coming inside with anything other than down and in sliders.

[foster15]

Elly's HR ceiling depends on if the Reds can bat someone behind him that'll get him pitches to hit. Every since he vaporized that up and in fastball by Syndergaard 90% of the pitches he's seen has been soft stuff down and away. Pitchers seem content to give him junk and see if they can get borderline strike calls or him to chase. I think he needs to commit to driving balls the other way in order to boost the HR total because I don't see many pitcher coming inside with anything other than down and in sliders.

With him I don't see it that way. There is no way he's going to get the Joey Votto treatment of not getting anything to hit because they have nobody behind him. He is not a player you want to walk. So he needs to force pitchers to give him pitches he can drill by not biting on pitches he can't hit.

[JFLegal]

With the majority of his season so far in AAA, he is on track for about 30, or a few less this season across two levels. Thats floor?

That's correct. He's 21. He will get better. Which is scary (for the Reds' opponents).

[RiverfrontRed]

It doesn't seem like intellectual dishonesty, but I think you use the word floor differently than some people would. To me, his floor isn't the same as my projection for next year -- or for any year. His floor is the lowest number I think he might hit next year or any year.

For instance, I won't disagree with your projection of 30 home runs next year if he keeps adapting well, but I also think a floor of maybe 22 is reasonable.

But whatever you think is his minimum or floor is still a projection based on potential since he hasn’t done it yet. That’s all I’m saying.