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Thread: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

  1. #1
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    1. Noelvi Marte, 3B
    2. Rhett Lowder, RHP
    3. Connor Phillips, RHP
    4. Ty Floyd, RHP
    5. Lyon Richardson, RHP
    6. Edwin Arroyo, SS
    7. Cam Collier, 3B
    8. Chase Petty, RHP
    9. Sal Stewart, 3B
    10. Julian Aguiar, RHP
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    1. Noelvi Marte, 3B
    2. Rhett Lowder, RHP
    3. Connor Phillips, RHP
    4. Ty Floyd, RHP
    5. Lyon Richardson, RHP
    6. Edwin Arroyo, SS
    7. Cam Collier, 3B
    8. Chase Petty, RHP
    9. Sal Stewart, 3B
    10. Julian Aguiar, RHP
    Really interesting list. BP often goes against the prospect grain, but this would seem to be an extreme example.

    Not sure where they're getting their helium on Ty Floyd from, but that might auger well for the team. They're definitely high man on Richardson too. Arroyo isn't all that beloved here, nor is Collier or Petty. (Super interesting that Richardson is higher on this list than is Petty-- both were babied a bit; they apparently love Richardson more. Odd, that.

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Really interesting list. BP often goes against the prospect grain, but this would seem to be an extreme example.

    Not sure where they're getting their helium on Ty Floyd from, but that might auger well for the team. They're definitely high man on Richardson too. Arroyo isn't all that beloved here, nor is Collier or Petty. (Super interesting that Richardson is higher on this list than is Petty-- both were babied a bit; they apparently love Richardson more. Odd, that.
    I had a similar reaction. Floyd is too new for any of us to know how good he is, so I can understand a scout who has seen him, really liking him. But we all saw what Richardson did in the majors last year. I don’t know how anyone could rank him that high after seeing that.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    All of these lists are going to look silly when Blake Dunn becomes the best player of the bunch. I can't rank Lowder that high at least until he's thrown some pitches as a pro and same goes for Floyd, even more so. My list (Goes to 14 to include Floyd):

    1. Marte
    2. Phillips
    3. Dunn
    4. Arroyo
    5. Lowder
    6. Petty
    7. Stewart
    8. Richardson
    9. Aguiar
    10. Collier
    11. Jorge
    12. Hinds
    13. Duno
    14. Floyd
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    All of these lists are going to look silly when Blake Dunn becomes the best player of the bunch. I can't rank Lowder that high at least until he's thrown some pitches as a pro and same goes for Floyd, even more so. My list (Goes to 14 to include Floyd):

    1. Marte
    2. Phillips
    3. Dunn
    4. Arroyo
    5. Lowder
    6. Petty
    7. Stewart
    8. Richardson
    9. Aguiar
    10. Collier
    11. Jorge
    12. Hinds
    13. Duno
    14. Floyd
    The knock on Dunn, and I think it's rightful, is that he's going to be 26 next year. That's ancient for a prospect ranked that high.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    The knock on Dunn, and I think it's rightful, is that he's going to be 26 next year. That's ancient for a prospect ranked that high.
    That sounds similar to TJ Friedl's career. If he turns out to be TJ Friedl, we've got a winner!

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    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Ranking Collier above Petty, and to a lesser extent, Stewart is nonsense
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Hopefully there are a few big league teams that think that highly of Richardson so the Reds can pair him with India for a haul. For me there's a clear top 3 among the SP which is Lowder, Phillips, and Petty. Petty is a first round draft pick coming off a 1.72 ERA 0 HR allowed in 68 IP season, and he made it to AA at age 20. Yeah the Reds have handled him with kid gloves so far, but everything is there for a potential front line SP when you look at the command and the ground ball rates. Richardson is a future RP IMO.

    It'll be interesting to see how fast the Reds move the college pitchers they drafted this year through the system. I think Lowder could've help them win games last year, and I don't see him needing much time in the minors. Floyd could be moved up at some point in a RP role after he's gotten in some work as a SP. I think Hunter Hollan was a sneaky good pick for the Reds, and as a lefty with a good pitch mix and control reminds me of Abbott.

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    I am much less excited about Richardson after seeing him in the bigs. But I think he’s a useful 1-2 inning reliever and should be held onto for immediate needs.

    OTOH I am beginning to feel like the high guy on Arroyo. I think he has a really nice profile and will surprise once he makes it up. Similar to how Marte just does everything well.

    I would have Lowder #2, but you can really see the thinning of the system. I doubt Krall will trade away much of it unless it’s packaged with India for a a SP.

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    The knock on Dunn, and I think it's rightful, is that he's going to be 26 next year. That's ancient for a prospect ranked that high.
    Probably true. I evaluate them based on the value I see them bringing the Reds, which is likely just the first 5 or 6 years of their career. In that case, I think Dunn is a better bet. Some of the younger guys may have better/longer big league careers and would rightfully be ranked higher, but that extra production would probably be of no benefit to Cincinnati.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Dunn had just 172 PA coming into 2023.

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Richardson and Floyd feel awfully high on that BP list.

    On mth’s list, no Ricardo Cabrera??
    Go BLUE!!!

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  21. #13
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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Richardson and Floyd feel awfully high on that BP list.

    On mth’s list, no Ricardo Cabrera??
    You're right. Put him at 11 and move the others down.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Richardson got a cup of coffee in the bigs so maybe that weighed more on BP's list...not saying I agree. Petty may feel a bit further away based on that.

    I also like Sal Stewart better than most.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

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    Re: Reds Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    Richardson got a cup of coffee in the bigs so maybe that weighed more on BP's list...not saying I agree. Petty may feel a bit further away based on that.

    I also like Sal Stewart better than most.
    At draft time I was more excited about Collier than Stewart. I viewed Stewart as a 1B/DH. That has since flipped. Stewart seems to have a more advanced bat with a chance to stick at 3rd. Collier has work to do in order to fit into the Reds' plans. Besides further development of his hit tool, he needs to be at least average at 3B. He is looking more like the 1B/DH that I thought Stewart was.


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