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Thread: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

  1. #16
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Its because there are 150 starting rotation spots that need filled and only about 70 major league caliber guys to fill them. Gray isn't going to be confused with Tom Seaver or Juan Marichal, but he's definitely in the upper portion of that list of 70 names and would clearly be the first name on that list on this staff had they signed him. The only reason it was just three years is because he's 34 and wanted to play close to his Tennessee home (the Reds also qualify there). Anybody else on that list of 70 names who would be the top guy in Cincy is going to take 6 or 7 years IMO and a much larger/ riskier overall dollar commitment.

    You would know better than me. However since they are not going to over pay and at this point you have to because of the state of starting pitching…. You’re better off getting swing guys. Relievers who can pitch multiple innings. No one trusts them to develop pitchers like TB. They have no choice. Starters are so overpriced for what they give you. Right now they have 6 young starters and none are a sure thing. They all have innings limits too. If they can sign Lugo at least they can put one of the others not named Hunter or Graham in the bullpen. Get 2 more of these 1990 Rick Mahler types and that will help.


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  3. #17
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Its because there are 150 starting rotation spots that need filled and only about 70 major league caliber guys to fill them. Gray isn't going to be confused with Tom Seaver or Juan Marichal, but he's definitely in the upper portion of that list of 70 names and would clearly be the first name on that list on this staff had they signed him. The only reason it was just three years is because he's 34 and wanted to play close to his Tennessee home (the Reds also qualify there). Anybody else on that list of 70 names who would be the top guy in Cincy is going to take 6 or 7 years IMO and a much larger/ riskier overall dollar commitment.
    The lone exception to your last statement--if his much increased inning load last year indicates enough health to get back to earlier levels--is the still very young former and potential TOR Jack Flaherty.

  4. #18
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Trevor Gott and Brandon Hughes would be options as well for reliever depth.

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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    The lone exception to your last statement--if his much increased inning load last year indicates enough health to get back to earlier levels--is the still very young former and potential TOR Jack Flaherty.
    I like Flaherty, but he's a question mark at this point. I think that's the issue. The Reds already have a rotation full of question marks. The idea is to get someone who isn't.

    I suspect Flaherty will have a good year, but I'd rather spend $25 Million on a clear upgrade than $15 Million on a question.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  6. #20
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I like Flaherty, but he's a question mark at this point. I think that's the issue. The Reds already have a rotation full of question marks. The idea is to get someone who isn't.

    I suspect Flaherty will have a good year, but I'd rather spend $25 Million on a clear upgrade than $15 Million on a question.
    Cardinals fans were happy to get rid of him. Most of it was because he was pretty horrible but there were other reasons as well.
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    Chip is right

  7. #21
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    The 25 million options are not coming to Cincinnati. There are only about 3 or 4 of those still out there--Snell, Yamamoto, Montgomery,. maybe Rodriguez--and there are probably at least ten teams in more attractive markets bidding for them. If the FO wants to get a real difference maker, it's going to take a risk, and Flaherty at 2 years, 12 million AAV, with a team option for a third, looks like a good risk to me if he's pretty close to 100%. Only way I see for the Reds to get a 1 or 2 via free agency.

  8. #22
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    The 25 million options are not coming to Cincinnati. There are only about 3 or 4 of those still out there--Snell, Yamamoto, Montgomery,. maybe Rodriguez--and there are probably at least ten teams in more attractive markets bidding for them. If the FO wants to get a real difference maker, it's going to take a risk, and Flaherty at 2 years, 12 million AAV, with a team option for a third, looks like a good risk to me if he's pretty close to 100%. Only way I see for the Reds to get a 1 or 2 via free agency.
    I get it, but what Krall said is he doesn't want question marks or bounce-back candidates. He wants proven stability. I want proven stability as well, but if they don't get that, I'd guess Flaherty or Lugo would be my choices to add to the rotation.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    The 25 million options are not coming to Cincinnati. There are only about 3 or 4 of those still out there--Snell, Yamamoto, Montgomery,. maybe Rodriguez--and there are probably at least ten teams in more attractive markets bidding for them. If the FO wants to get a real difference maker, it's going to take a risk, and Flaherty at 2 years, 12 million AAV, with a team option for a third, looks like a good risk to me if he's pretty close to 100%. Only way I see for the Reds to get a 1 or 2 via free agency.
    If the Reds are actually willing to bid the going rate is Cincinnati that unattractive of a destination for free agents? This time last season sure I would agree with that completely. Hearing Nick Krall interviews basically saying their selling point to free agents is that the team was so bad that mediocre players would be handed starting roles was pretty sad. Going into 2024 though this team is entering their window to compete again, have one of the best groups of young players in the game, and are currently sitting with a ton of payroll flex. I get that they wont be landing an Ohtani or even be in the running, but this seems like a prime opportunity for the Reds to make a run at a $25M guy, especially on a 3ish year deal.

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    Revering4Blue (11-28-2023)

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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    My interpretation is that the Reds are willing to go market rate for a top-notch pitcher (e.g. $25M per year) but are not as willing to do that long-term. I wouldn't be surprised if a primary reason Sonny picked the Cards over the Reds is they were willing to go 3 years while the Reds only wanted to go 2.

    That fits with the reports about interest in Glasnow and to a lesser extent financially Bieber for what would be essentially 1 year deals rather than the other top free agent pitchers. I think it's the right approach this off-season. Glasnow would be my Plan A and Beiber would probably a top Plan B target. Truth is they could actually probably afford both especially if they didn't take on an extra bad contract like Margot in a deal with the Rays.

  12. #25
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    I'd love to see them sign Rodriguez. They could then move one of Lodolo, Williamson, or Abbott to the pen, if they don't want four lefty starters.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    REDREAD (11-28-2023)

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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    I'd love to see them sign Rodriguez. They could then move one of Lodolo, Williamson, or Abbott to the pen, if they don't want four lefty starters.
    Signing a guy like Rodriguez would make it a lot easier to part with one of those guys to get someone like Glasnow too.

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    REDREAD (11-28-2023)

  16. #27
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Now that the details have emerged on the Sonny Gray deal, I think I see what the stumbling block was: a full no-trade clause. I don't think the Reds will do those, particularly after getting out from under a $25 mil a year contract with a no trade clause (Votto) and the memory being fresh how that handcuffed them... The thing that may hold the Reds back with these other pitchers is that they will not do no-trade clauses.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Chip R (11-29-2023),Old school 1983 (11-29-2023),Revering4Blue (11-29-2023)

  18. #28
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne Krivsky View Post
    If the Reds are actually willing to bid the going rate is Cincinnati that unattractive of a destination for free agents? This time last season sure I would agree with that completely. Hearing Nick Krall interviews basically saying their selling point to free agents is that the team was so bad that mediocre players would be handed starting roles was pretty sad. Going into 2024 though this team is entering their window to compete again, have one of the best groups of young players in the game, and are currently sitting with a ton of payroll flex. I get that they wont be landing an Ohtani or even be in the running, but this seems like a prime opportunity for the Reds to make a run at a $25M guy, especially on a 3ish year deal.
    It's a simple matter of economics. A pitcher's stats constitute his brand, his capital. Say he's 30 and a FA. He looks forward to 10 more years of pitching (hopefully). He's looking to sign a three year deal and has offers from San Diego, the Dodgers, and the Reds. How much premium would you have to pay him to risk his capital by signing on to pitch in GABP rather than in those much more attractive ballparks? How much might his potential loss be over the last seven years of his career (ages 33-40) if he diminishes his brand by pitching in GABP? Very difficult even to estimate that because it's hard to assess just what the inflation figure for SPs is going to be. So I guess that the implicit premiums people imagine here are way too low.

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    Chip R (11-29-2023),REDREAD (11-29-2023)

  20. #29
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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    It's a simple matter of economics. A pitcher's stats constitute his brand, his capital. Say he's 30 and a FA. He looks forward to 10 more years of pitching (hopefully). He's looking to sign a three year deal and has offers from San Diego, the Dodgers, and the Reds. How much premium would you have to pay him to risk his capital by signing on to pitch in GABP rather than in those much more attractive ballparks? How much might his potential loss be over the last seven years of his career (ages 33-40) if he diminishes his brand by pitching in GABP? Very difficult even to estimate that because it's hard to assess just what the inflation figure for SPs is going to be. So I guess that the implicit premiums people imagine here are way too low.
    Eh, when you use the term "brand" what are you talking about - his advertising opportunities? It's not like MLB organizations aren't well aware that there's a big difference pitching in GAPB v Petco and take that into full consideration when evaluating free agents and/or trade candidates.

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    Re: 3 high-priced alternatives the Reds could sign after missing out on Sonny Gray

    Quote Originally Posted by Redeyecat View Post
    Eh, when you use the term "brand" what are you talking about - his advertising opportunities? It's not like MLB organizations aren't well aware that there's a big difference pitching in GAPB v Petco and take that into full consideration when evaluating free agents and/or trade candidates.
    Athletes talk about their "brand" all the time; it means their capital, who they are, how they rank, what kind of respect they consider appropriate etc. I don't think it's true that execs "take into full consideration" ballpark factors etc. when making deals. Execs don't want to fail--fear of standing out as the underperformer is one of the most powerful motives driving people in organizations. When a player's brand diminishes, an exec has to take a risk he'd prefer not to make and will turn to the surer thing--or, at least, to the decision for which he can least be blamed if it fails.


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