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Thread: #2 Pick

  1. #571
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    Luckily that's not a problem with the current Reds at least not in regards to spending on draft picks. I was listening to a podcast with Joe Doyle on it this morning and he said something interesting that I can't really disprove. He said that all the top position players in MLB who are the real stars were either drafted out of high school or international signings. I hadn't thought about it much, but it seems to be mostly true. The elite athletes are going to catch MLB teams attention and get signed as prep players. The college hitters like we see this year will likely be less premium athletes, and be carried by their bats. While the really good college athletes will have some warts to their game(like Honeycutt and King).

    It gives the pro Konnor Griffin guys a decent argument IMO.

    2nd argument for drafting a HS player. Right now, pretty much Griffin, Ranier are being mocked 5-10th in the draft. The Reds slot value for pick #2 is $9.77mm. Pick 4 (Oakland is $8.3mm) and #5 is CWS $7.7mm Right now, if you think you want to go Griffin, odds are he will definitely take $8.3mm-- because that's higher than he is CURRENTLY expected to go, and b.) it avoids being drafted by the dumpster fire Oakland organization. But also-- he may take $7.7mm and be ok with having 5th overall money locked up. Rainer is in the same boat. Some teams have him ahead of Griffin, but if you are being mocked 5ht-12th, and someone offers you 5th place money, then you probably take it. In fact, he possibly snatches your hand off for 7th overall money which is $6.8mm. Of course it depends on where they are mocked the days before the draft and a lot can change.

    The other thing is that even though Griffin reclassified, he is still only 2 months younger than Walker Jenkins was last year, but 6 months younger than MAx Clark. So he is still young, but not Cam Collier young for the draft, and age does matter. Griffin is 10 months younger than Rainer.

    How much of a discount do Bazzana and Condon take? What is the upside compared to say Griffin? Floor? If the Reds save $2mm on the pick, then can float a #20-#25 type talent down to pick #51.

    I don't know who the Reds have on the board, but salary demands will impact their decision. If both guys are graded almost equally and you can get one guy for $1-$2mm less, then you take the cheaper guy.

    You can't be focused on picking the guy you think will make the majors first. No guarantee that works out either--- Crews was a can't miss guy and right now he is a 22 year old struggling in AA, while Collier is 19 and doing alright just 1 level below what Crews is at. No guarantee whether you are picking HS or College hitters.

    Last year the Reds only took 2 preps in the first 12 or 13 rounds. It feels like this year they COULD go prep at #2 then use the savings to float some guys down to them at pick #51 and #71. It feels like Griffin is a guy that fits the Reds preference. SS who can stay at the position or also be elite defensively as a CF. The Reds love their athletic SS's, know that even if they don't stay at SS, they will be above average athletically at another position. Dude is a gamer, has tremendous makeup and just loves to work hard and play ball.

    IDK if he (Griffin) is even that high on the Reds board-- but I've got a bad feeling that most of these college hitters-- won't be all that in the pros. The #'s all of them are putting up are impressive, but at the same time, less impressive bc they are all doing it. It's more impressive when 1 dude hits 35 HR's, but if 4 guys do it-- then maybe it's less about them and more about the environment.

    I just feel like there is a 50% chance the Reds go prep, save money and spread it out to take more chances on higher upside prep players later in the draft. Which again, is usually a pretty good strategy to spread the money around.

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  4. #572
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    Re: #2 Pick

    I would feel better about an under slot deal at #2 if the prep class was stronger, and if the Reds had their 2nd pick before #51. I was thinking who the most likely under slot candidates would be and I'd probably have Kurtz, Griffin, Smith, Wetherholt, and Rainer as the guys I could see the Reds being interested in that would take a haircut down to around 8 million or less.

    I think there will be a run on the best prep guys(after Griffin and Rainer) in mid to late round 1, and buying one of those guys down to 51 won't be easy. If they could get Schmidt or Mayfield I'd be in favor of an under slot at 2. I'm not sure any of the other prep guys outside the top 20 range would be worth it unless the Reds legit liked the guy they under slot at #2 as much as anyone else at the top.

  5. #573
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    I would feel better about an under slot deal at #2 if the prep class was stronger, and if the Reds had their 2nd pick before #51. I was thinking who the most likely under slot candidates would be and I'd probably have Kurtz, Griffin, Smith, Wetherholt, and Rainer as the guys I could see the Reds being interested in that would take a haircut down to around 8 million or less.

    I think there will be a run on the best prep guys(after Griffin and Rainer) in mid to late round 1, and buying one of those guys down to 51 won't be easy. If they could get Schmidt or Mayfield I'd be in favor of an under slot at 2. I'm not sure any of the other prep guys outside the top 20 range would be worth it unless the Reds legit liked the guy they under slot at #2 as much as anyone else at the top.
    Mayfield would be my target to float down. He's going to be discounted anyway because of his age, but the upside is there.

    At 71, I'd like to see Garrett Schull selected. After that, BPA.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  6. #574
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    Re: #2 Pick

    FSS has put out an updated top 500 today https://futurestarsseries.com/mlb-dr...harlie-condon/

    Interesting to see some of the late risers with some helium as we near the end of the year. I think there's some pretty interesting guys even as far down as the 130 range. Should be able to land a few good college SP in the 2-6 round range, and nab a few good prep players as well. Outside of Condon and Bazzana I'm just not feeling that great about any of the others at the top being worth #2 pick unless it's on a pretty steep discount.

  7. #575
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    Re: #2 Pick

    My guess is the Reds will take Bazzana or Condon, will not vary, and will pay the price. The Reds donít spend big money on major league star players. They try to compensate by looking for star players in less expensive markets. That goes back as far as Aroldis Chapman when they stunningly won the bidding for him.

    These two players present an opportunity for a potential star without paying MLB free agent level prices. I donít think theyíll mess around, I expect them to take one of the two.

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  9. #576
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    Re: #2 Pick

    My only hope is that the Reds don’t pick another guy who profiles as a 1b/DH. They have a roster full of them. That’s why I prefer Bazzana. 60 speed will make him useful up the middle somewhere or in an OF corner.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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  11. #577
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My only hope is that the Reds don’t pick another guy who profiles as a 1b/DH. They have a roster full of them. That’s why I prefer Bazzana. 60 speed will make him useful up the middle somewhere or in an OF corner.
    Condon profiles as a 3B or OF.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  12. #578
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Condon profiles as a 3B or OF.
    With 40 speed in his early 20s. DH or 1B is probably in his future.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  13. #579
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    With 40 speed in his early 20s. DH or 1B is probably in his future.
    He doesn't have 40 speed.

    I hate scouting scores on speed. Senzel was supposedly a 45 runner at Tennessee, yet he was in the 90th percentile in speed for most of his time with the Reds. India was a 50 guy out of Florida, but he was in the 86th percentile until plantar fascia robbed him of some speed.

    Condon was an average runner (7.03 60 yard dash) in HS and has blossomed physically since then. I'm guessing the longer legs and (much) stronger body mean he's still around average. That's plenty of speed to be a decent RF. (Which is a position of need, IMO.)

  14. #580
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My only hope is that the Reds don’t pick another guy who profiles as a 1b/DH. They have a roster full of them. That’s why I prefer Bazzana. 60 speed will make him useful up the middle somewhere or in an OF corner.
    They have a roster full of them but which of them are actually good? There's zero chance I let CES, Candy, or even Steer factor into who I'm going to draft.

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  16. #581
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Guys who are below average runners at 22 years old usually end up being lumbering 1b types by the time they are 25. Hopefully Condon is different, but picking #2 should allow them to get all 5 tools.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  17. #582
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    He doesn't have 40 speed.

    I hate scouting scores on speed. Senzel was supposedly a 45 runner at Tennessee, yet he was in the 90th percentile in speed for most of his time with the Reds. India was a 50 guy out of Florida, but he was in the 86th percentile until plantar fascia robbed him of some speed.

    Condon was an average runner (7.03 60 yard dash) in HS and has blossomed physically since then. I'm guessing the longer legs and (much) stronger body mean he's still around average. That's plenty of speed to be a decent RF. (Which is a position of need, IMO.)
    I too am confused by the speed rating. I understand that MLB has him at 40, yet he has played some CF at Georgia. I suspect he has at least average speed.

  18. #583
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Guys who are below average runners at 22 years old usually end up being lumbering 1b types by the time they are 25. Hopefully Condon is different, but picking #2 should allow them to get all 5 tools.
    Nah.

    As I've shown, speed scores are often just wrong.

    Best to ignore them completely (unless they're at the extremes).

  19. #584
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    It was written by a random scout once therefore it is gospel
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  20. #585
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    It was written by a random scout once therefore it is gospel
    In HS, before his growth spurt or weight training, he ran a 7.03 60-yard dash for Perfect Game.

    That's just below average speed.

    (Not sure how that parlays to where he is now. I suspect not at all.)


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