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Thread: #2 Pick

  1. #496
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    So the pick should be Griffin or Rainer or Smith?
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)


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  3. #497
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    So the pick should be Griffin or Rainer or Smith?
    Griffin and Smith are definitely in my top 5. If Smith goes all Skenes from here on out, he has to be an option at #2. And as others have said, we'll see how the big bats separate themselves through the post season.

  4. #498
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Also, last year's can't-miss college bat (Crews) has struggled at AA. It's only 33 games in total, but it hasn't been pretty.

  5. #499
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    This piqued my interest. For the top 30 fWAR position players last year, 14 were International signees, 11 were drafted out of high school, and five were college players.
    Since this isn't a subject about getting international signees, nor can they be drafted #2 in the draft, the true ratio then is 11/5.

    College programs have improved dramatically over the last decade, while scouting is recognizing the talent that is there. For much of the elite talent, they often get drafted in the middle rounds first, only for them to decide to stay in college, when they then get drafted in the upper rounds as Scouts understand that they were wrong just 12 months later regarding their evaluations on their talent potential. It just goes to show you that Baseball Executives and All Scouts are more likely to evaluate a player wrong then then are to evaluate a player correctly.

    The College player today that is putting up great numbers at a great program is doing the job for organizations that Scouts haven't been able to do. The floor is so much higher for all of them than it is for a non-college player. You also get a return on your investment five years sooner (as far as what that player's Major League OPS/Opponent's OPS is going to be in the future). That right there is huge.

    I would focus more of my attention on international signings, then College players in the first half of the draft, and then HS players in the last half of the draft (since they are the biggest crapshoot and take the longest to develop).

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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Also, last year's can't-miss college bat (Crews) has struggled at AA. It's only 33 games in total, but it hasn't been pretty.
    For every can't-miss college bat, there are a dozen can't-miss HS Pitchers. We can cherry-pick all day long.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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  7. #500
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Griffin and Smith are definitely in my top 5. If Smith goes all Skenes from here on out, he has to be an option at #2. And as others have said, we'll see how the big bats separate themselves through the post season.
    There aren't any Pitchers as good as Skenes.

    That's like saying there's a hitter as good as Rutschman.

    Those two are head-and-shoulders above anyone in this draft.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  8. #501
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    Re: #2 Pick

    It's likely that the Reds will take a bat at 2. I think they will take either a catcher or pitcher at 51. The running game has become more important, so a catcher with a plus plus arm is a desirable pick. Cade Arrambide stands out. The Reds seem to believe they can develop pitchers. Tall pitchers with a release point closer to the batter seem to allow less reaction time for the batter. There are a number of tall prep pitchers that should be available at 51 or 71.

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  10. #502
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Jac Caglianone went 4 for 7 with a walk tonight against #3-Tennessee.
    Charlie Condon homered and walk versus Vanderbilt.
    Nick Kurtz has played 2 games this week. He is 0 for 1 with 9 walks.

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  12. #503
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    Re: #2 Pick


  13. #504
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Strong is an understatement. 14 K's in 6 innings with 2 BB and 1 ER(that came after a few defensive plays that should've been made but weren't) against #8 Kentucky. He's definitely on an uptrend. Opponents are batting .132 against Smith this year.

  14. #505
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    There aren't any Pitchers as good as Skenes.

    That's like saying there's a hitter as good as Rutschman.

    Those two are head-and-shoulders above anyone in this draft.
    There are arguably hitters in this draft as good as Rutschman. The fact that he is a catcher added to his value as a no-brainer #1.

    And Hagen Smith is sneaking up the board and dominating much like Skenes. The numbers are similar and he's a lefty. If he keeps dominating these last 5-8 starts, an argument can be made for him going top 2.

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  16. #506
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Greene and Lodolo are prime examples of the risk in picking pitchers. They both have had big time injury issues.
    Greene and Lodolo both look like very good picks for the Reds. Not sure you're making your argument with those two. Early results on Lowder look very good as well. Every pitcher is a risk of course, but there is risk in college ( and obviously prep) bats as well. Baseball prospects are just inherently risky.

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  18. #507
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    Re: #2 Pick

    We need a corner OF bat that can put some balls in the seats. We've got the infielder position set nearly 2 deep in the system right now. Pitching is always a good pick but if there is a nearly can't miss bat that can rise quickly we could sure use it.

  19. #508
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Jac Caglianone went 4 for 7 with a walk tonight against #3-Tennessee.
    Charlie Condon homered and walk versus Vanderbilt.
    Nick Kurtz has played 2 games this week. He is 0 for 1 with 9 walks.
    The thing about Kurtz is he is having a “down” year but this is the 3rd year in a row he has put up 1.000+ Ops. The Wake Forest lineup has other players going in the first 3 rounds and they are still pitching around him. Why are they not giving the Barry Bonds treatment to Condon or Bazzana

  20. #509
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by krm1580 View Post
    The thing about Kurtz is he is having a “down” year but this is the 3rd year in a row he has put up 1.000+ Ops. The Wake Forest lineup has other players going in the first 3 rounds and they are still pitching around him. Why are they not giving the Barry Bonds treatment to Condon or Bazzana
    I think Kurtz has the best eye of the hitters under consideration.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  21. #510
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    Re: #2 Pick

    If the draft were held today Cleveland has to take Condon #1. You can't pass on a guy who's held a near 1.700 OPS this deep into SEC conference play. My guess is the Reds would go full slot for Condon so Cleveland will have to go to 10 mil. Assuming that Condon is off the board, and the Reds go BPA it's Bazzana. Just draft him and figure out the positional fit later. If the Reds are determined for a middle of the order thumper then Cags and Kurtz enter the picture. The question teams are probably wondering is how much better does Cags get when he drops pitching to focus on hitting 100% of the time? If you think he has the most upside in the draft offensively then it's a justified pick at #2.
    Last edited by JCM11; 05-05-2024 at 10:46 AM.

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