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Thread: #2 Pick

  1. #706
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    TJ Friedl is a success, for sure.

    The Friedl/ McLain duo is a really solid example of development. Hurtubise has done fairly well. Fairchild too. India, of course.

    I think that's a pretty solid line of development. A star (maybe), a possible All-Star/ 1st division starter. A second division starter. Two back-ups.

    That's not bad over a five-year arc.
    You're going all the way back to 2016 to come up with that group, and India and McLain were top 20 picks. I'm looking at the Reds recent track record for finding talent in rounds outside the top of the draft. That leans heavily towards pitching and prep bats.
    Last edited by JCM11; 05-31-2024 at 07:35 PM.


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  3. #707
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    You're going all the way back to 2016 to come up with that group, and India and McLain were top 20 picks. I'm looking at the Reds recent track record for finding talent in rounds outside the top of the draft. That leans heavily towards pitching and prep bats.
    Yeah, 2016 makes sense because you know what's happened with those guys by now. (For the most part.) You can't do that with guys from last year-- or any recent draft class. They're too far away.

    The Reds have also not drafted all that many 4-year college guys early in the draft. The draft as a whole is incredibly hard to gauge-- it's even worse the farther you go.

    The Reds have, by and large, done well developing through the draft no matter who they've drafted. (This is not to say they've been perfect-- far from it. But the baseball draft is wholly different than the NFL or NBA drafts.)

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  5. #708
    Member camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Accounting for draft position, the Reds' past decade of draft history suggests that they're around average. 2016 and 2020 were failures. 2015 and 2021 were successes. 2017-9 are about average with potential for more. No one knows about 2022-3 yet.
    Quote Originally Posted by Boss-Hog
    Stop quoting me on things I never said.

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  7. #709
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Accounting for draft position, the Reds' past decade of draft history suggests that they're around average. 2016 and 2020 were failures. 2015 and 2021 were successes. 2017-9 are about average with potential for more. No one knows about 2022-3 yet.
    I'm going to push back gently on 2016 being viewed as a failed draft.

    Senzel was bad as a Red. That said, the entire first round of that draft was horrible. The highest bWAR of any player is below 9.

    Trammell was sent to San Diego in a three-team deal as the central piece (along with 4th rounder Scott Moss and Yasiel Puig) for a Cy Young Award winner-- that was an exceptional bit of roster management if not outright development.

    TJ Friedl was a part of that class as an UDFA. He's been outstanding as a Red and looks like a first-division starter, if not an All-Star.

    At the end of the day, a Cy Young winner and a near All-Star in a draft class (kind of) isn't necessarily a failure. The 6.5 bWAR between Friedl and Bauer provides the Reds with just more than 3.5 bWAR total. If Friedl can grab, say, 15 WAR over his Red career, I'd argue 2016 could be considered an average (or slightly better) developmental season.

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  9. #710
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    Re: #2 Pick

    First games in the tourney saw Cags hit a 115 mph double then get IBB 3 times in a row in a Florida win. For some reason Condon was pitched to and had a HR, double, single, and IBB.

  10. #711
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Good to see Cags, Bazzana and Condon have good first games in the tourney. Much as I have promoted Burns as a legit consideration for the Reds, when it comes down to it I think I'd prefer a bat.

  11. #712
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Accounting for draft position, the Reds' past decade of draft history suggests that they're around average. 2016 and 2020 were failures. 2015 and 2021 were successes. 2017-9 are about average with potential for more. No one knows about 2022-3 yet.
    I will die on the hill that the 2020 draft should be thrown out. They were basically picking blind.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  14. #714
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Burns was bad today. Gave up 4 ER, 4 walks, 7 K’s

    I also saw 23 of the 50 hits he has given up this year have been XBH. Not sure if that means anything, but thought it was interesting
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Redeyecat (06-07-2024)

  16. #715
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Burns was bad today. Gave up 4 ER, 4 walks, 7 K’s

    I also saw 23 of the 50 hits he has given up this year have been XBH. Not sure if that means anything, but thought it was interesting
    In an elimination game against a potential top 10 draft pick on the other side in Trey Yesavage. Not a good time for an outing like that.
    Last edited by JCM11; 06-01-2024 at 02:53 PM.

  17. #716
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Condon or Bazzana easy pick. I'm all aboard the Bazzana train but don't tell CLE

  18. #717
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    Re: #2 Pick

    What a day for Travis Bazzana on Friday in the 1st game of their Regional in Corvallis.

    He grounds out 1st AB, then they intentionally walk him his next at-bat. With the Beavers down by one in the bottom of the 5th, there's a man on 1st w/ nobody out. What does he do? The smartest thing, of course. He always does the smartest thing. The REDS really need this type of player. He makes certain that the tying run gets into scoring position and laces a Single into LF. Tying run on 2nd and go-ahead run on 1st w/ nobody out. That's smart baseball.

    A couple of batters later, Gavin Turley hits his 5th Grand Slam of the season. Yes. 5th of the season. That doesn't even happen in Little League.

    Next time up, they intentionally walk him again.

    Next time up, probably his last, in the bottom of the 8th and the Beavers up 9-4 w/ nobody on base, he went medievil on his first swing of the at-bat sending the ball at 110+ mph 443 feet over the Left Centerfield bleachers.

    Oh, and he stole 2nd a couple of times, well, because it was there for the taking.

    He plays 2nd Base, too. Not sure where he'll settle in for the REDS, but I'm guessing LF with McLain at 2B.

    Bazzana is by far the best player in this draft, which means that Cleveland will take him, so it's all moot. Welcome to Cincinnati, Charlie Condon. Enjoy the next 10 years at 1B and in the #4 hole.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  19. #718
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Enjoy the next 10 years at 1B and in the #4 hole.
    Condon is probably a corner outfielder. He could play a defensive role similar to Steer. He's played more at 3b and CF than 1b.

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  21. #719
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post

    Bazzana is by far the best player in this draft.
    By far? Pretty much every expert I’ve read disagrees with that statement.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Redeyecat (06-07-2024)

  23. #720
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    Re: #2 Pick

    Which guy do I like better? My answer is yes.

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