they are not the same player.. !st of All I only seen India play only 2nd base at the MLB level. I seen him play 3rd at AA in person. I seen Steer play LF, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B.. AND has more Power than India
they are not the same player.. !st of All I only seen India play only 2nd base at the MLB level. I seen him play 3rd at AA in person. I seen Steer play LF, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B.. AND has more Power than India
My point was mainly that they are of the same value, though Steer was perceived as a lot better at the time. Many pushed back on that concept as Steer was a fan favorite coming out of 2023 and most wanted India gone.
Actually India ended up having the (slightly) better year.
RiverRat13 (10-10-2024)
My question is - who has value in the trade market?
I’d be shopping Marte, Steer and India for OF and pitching help but I get the feeling none of these guys really moves the needling in bringing back anything that helps the team now.
Steer and India are both solid MLB regulars that'll give ya about 2 WAR for a full season. We need more like them not less.
757690 (10-10-2024),LiferJim (10-10-2024),RedTeamGo! (10-10-2024),RiverRat13 (10-10-2024)
This, sort of.
Big picture, you need about 40 WAR as a team to be in the playoff race, 45 to be solidly in it, and 50 to basically lock up a spot. League-wide, you expect 52% from potion players and 48% from pitchers. Call that 21 from position players and 19 from pitchers as a baseline. Here's what the Reds got in 2024.
Position players: 8.6 WAR
- Starters (9 players, 75% PA): 13.6 WAR
- Bench (21 players, 25% PA): -5.0 WAR (this includes -1.5 from Marte)
Pitchers: 17.0 WAR
- As Starters (58% IP): 11.9 WAR
- As Relievers (42% IP): 5.1 WAR
Elly (6.4), Stephenson (3), India (2.8), Steer (1.3), and Fraley (0.9 in a platoon) were the only real offensive contributors among starters, totaling 14.4. Candy, Espinal, Benson, and Friedl combined for -0.8. Marte, counted here as bench, was -1.5 by himself -- you can count him as a starter if you want. Point being, if you take Elly at 6, Stephenson at 3, get 2 WAR out of the other 6 positions each and break even of the bench, that's 21 WAR total, right where you would an expect a wild-card team's position players to be. It would be an increase of 12 from what we got last year and enough to put us in the playoff hunt.
So, yeah. 2 WAR guys aren't typically holding your team back at all. That is, unless you're counting on them as your position player core. If you're looking at Steer and India as your 3rd and 4th best position players, your team has a pretty low ceiling. You want these guys as your solid everyday role players, not your stars.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-10-2024 at 01:46 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
CaiGuy (10-10-2024)
Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 10-10-2024 at 01:41 PM.
757690 (10-11-2024)
Neither does anyone else, lol. Mostly a matter of preference. For position players, the big difference is on defense, where bWAR tends to take on more extreme values than fWAR. I prefer fWAR because it's using statcast data for defense.
But practically speaking, if you just imaagine there's a +/- 1 WAR per 600 PA fudge factor, you get a pretty good, consistent picture. Both are 2ish WAR players.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
757690 (10-11-2024),Kingspoint (10-11-2024),LeatherPants (10-10-2024)
bWAR uses defensive data that is at least a decade out of date.
fWAR uses Statcast, which is far newer and able to differentiate (largely) between bad defense and bad positioning. In short, player's fault v. management's/ manager's fault.
If you're not sure which WAR to use or you don't trust Statcast, you can average the two:
Steer 1.4 WAR
India 2.4 WAR
If you do that, it's still clear that India had a far better season. Now, maybe Steer figures something out and has a better season than he did in 2024. Part of the issue, to me at least, is that Steer is playing the role of a run-producer but doesn't produce all that many runs. If he's a 96 OPS+ guy, he'd better be a Gold Glove candidate.
Alas.
Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 10-10-2024 at 02:16 PM.
Does war or stratocast take into account a players range or mental miscues? I realize they are useful tools, but are they perfect science?
For instance, if a 2nd baseman gets the force out on a double play ball, but he doesn’t get the double play because he couldn’t get the ball out of his glove. Does those programs take things like that into account?
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"Music really is a way to reach out and hold on to each other, in a healthy way" Stevie Ray Vaughan
The Reds are going to need McLain to be a border line All Star 3-4 WAR player, and bring in a corner OF masher to get over the hump. Guys like Steer, India, CES, Marte, Candy should all be up for trade for better roster fits and to make way for better players. Yes they will have to keep some of those guys, but they also need to move one or two of them.
Statcast takes true range and miscues into account.
While it's not perfect, it's as close as we have (for free public-forward defensive measurements) currently.
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McLain could well surpass these expectations. (He was on his way last year, but didn't have enough PAs to accrue massive numbers.
He has a floor (defense plus speed plus aggressiveness) that should see him able to be a high WAR guy. We'll see if that is the case.
Perfect? Absolutely not. However, the basic concept is: given the situation (e.g. baserunners and outs) and the defensive opportunity (where the ball was hit and how hard), what happens on average vs. what happened in each specific case. And the fielder gets credit for the difference (for better or worse).
Read more here: https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-in...nfield-defense
As with all things WAR, nobody should take in on blind faith. It's not perfect. But if you're worried about whether or not it's considering something, it probably is. And if it's not, it's likely that things is very minor and unlikely to move the needle much.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-10-2024 at 03:08 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
LiferJim (10-10-2024)
One of Steers comps is Gary Roenicke and if the Reds leveraged Steer in a similar way his numbers would be better
mth123 (10-10-2024)
If India's defensive improvements are real, I'd say he's a step up from CES, Steer, and Candy in terms of value to the Reds right now. He's got legit 3-4 WAR potential, which the others* likely do not.
*Marte is sort of a separate question. He's basically still a prospect; just 23 years old. He has a big ceiling, but man was 2024 rough. I wouldn't hesitate to trade him for a true impact player, but would probably value him more highly than others.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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