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Thread: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

  1. #211
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    Learning a lot about Buddy here. All I really know is that he was a sight to behold in college. I recall one tournament where he couldn’t miss a shot.
    Until the Final Four when he went 1-8 from 3 and they lost by 44 to Villanova. The first four games of that Tournament he was electric to get them to the Final Four, though.


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  3. #212
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You keep saying it's not normal with nothing to substantiate it. Like, zero. That's the definition of a feeling. An even distribution on either side of an average is how you get an average. What you posted was seven games better than his average and seven games below his average, and it works out to a really good average. Literally the only way you can average ~3 3-pointers a night is if the nights you hit 4, 5 or 6 get balanced out by 0s, 1s and 2s. No one, no one human ever, hits their average every night.

    You're insisting Buddy Hield is a magical creature who can post some of the most prolific 3-point seasons ever (2 of the top 10, 3 of the top 15, 4 of the top 20, 5 of the top 25) while maintaining a 40% average despite being secretly bad at the micro level at it. I've heard this argued about Joey Votto with batting average and Adam Dunn with RBIs. What doesn't exist in the "but they're doing it the wrong way" arguments is a demonstration of how most others do it the supposed right way and how the offender in question deviates from it.

    You clearly believe this is happening, but absent a good measure of volatility (which you admit doesn't exist) it's nothing more than you believing it really hard. Meanwhile I know you know how difficult it is for a player to be secretly bad at a thing he grades out as elite at on the macro level. It would involve unicorn-level math. Yet here's a study on 3-pointers that shows there's so much noise on 3-point shooting that only after 750 attempts does a player's cross the 50/50 line of skill and noise (in section 1). What that's telling us is the kind of volatility you see in Hield's November sample is common, that the samples of players across the league are volatile and noisy.

    And here's what our takeaway should be: when you cross over that threshold between noise and measurable skill, Buddy absolutely rocks at stroking the 3-point shot.
    He sometimes rocks and is wildly inconsistent and shoots too much. Yes.

    And I did post some data. Yes itís a small sample size, but itís not abnormal, could do it for any time frame and if you want to comp it to guys with similar percentage stats it would be glaringly obvious. Now Iím not going to spend my time going through this exercise because I donít care, but itís all there and itís not based on my vibes.

    I am now leaving the buddy hield conversation. Good job everyone.

  4. #213
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    The knock on them I keep hearing from various Sports outlets - namely national sports radio - which I donít buy, is they are too young.

    Really? This isnít NCAA hoops, where quality rotational upperclassmen are a must.

    Wednesday nightís come-from-behind win was with the roster as healthy as itís been in a while. And that was still without Merrill and Wade, who provide even additional bench scoring and stretch the floor.


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    I hear more some version of ďyeah they are playing well but they looked bad in the Knicks series last yearĒ.

    Which I understand some people just want to see it, but itís also pretty lazy analysis of how this team looks compared to last year.

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  6. #214
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    but it’s not abnormal
    You would need to the make/miss patterns of every other player in the NBA for the past decade before beginning to make a qualitative statement about whether Hield's pattern is abnormal. You don't have that.

    That's because it doesn't exist, at least nowhere in the public domain. What I did present you was some advanced research on the tremendous amount of noise in 3-point shooting data, which indicates wide game-to-game variances are pretty standard among NBA players. I will add that teams have recognized that from a tactical standpoint and they're well-past relying on a single player to hit their threes. Instead teams now fire up 3's in volume from multiple players so that it covers the boom-bust effect that occurs at the individual level. To shift it to a different team, it doesn't matter so much if Jayson Tatum is bricking it on a given night (which happens frequently) as long as Derick White and Sam Hauser are hitting theirs.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  7. #215
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    I hear more some version of “yeah they are playing well but they looked bad in the Knicks series last year”.

    Which I understand some people just want to see it, but it’s also pretty lazy analysis of how this team looks compared to last year.
    Though that take is based on a lingering question of whether Mitchell and Garland can defend in the playoffs. Until a quality team gets up to seven bites at that apples, we won't really know if the Cavs can get key stops in a slowed down, more tactical game. It's a bit like when Rudy Gobert would dominate defensively for the Jazz in the regular season only to get put on skates in the playoffs. Then the next regular season, he'd be declared a force of nature again and every year in the playoffs he'd be back on skates. it was a perfect loop.

    FWIW, I think Strus will make a positive difference and Mitchell is playing the best defense of his career. IMO, that last part is super important. Mitchell's playing a complete game (his rebounds and assists are up too). I expect him to be locked in come the playoffs, which could prove a rude awakening for any teams looking for easy buckets at his expense. Yet until he deals effectively with a big guard like Haliburton in the playoffs, there probably will be lingering doubts.
    Last edited by M2; 02-16-2024 at 03:24 PM.
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  9. #216
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Though that take is based on a lingering question of whether Mitchell and Garland can defend in the playoffs. Until a quality team gets up to seven bites at that apples, we won't really know if the Cavs can get key stops in a slowed down, more tactical game. It's a bit like when Rudy Gobert would dominate defensively for the Jazz in the regular only to get put on skates in the playoffs. Every regular season, he'd be declared a force of nature again and every year in the playoffs he'd be back on skates.

    FWIW, I think Strus will make a positive difference and Mitchell is playing the best defense of his career. IMO, that last part is super important. Mitchell's playing a complete game (his rebounds and assists are up too). I expect him to be locked in come the playoffs, which could prove a rude awakening for any teams looking for easy buckets at his expense. Yet until he deals effectively with a big guard like Haliburton in the playoffs, there probably will be lingering doubts.
    Yeah I don’t have a general problem with Cavs doubters. I watch every game and while I feel better about this team than last year, I kinda wanna see it too.

    The Strus part is definitely a big deal. He does a lot offensively with mitchell that makes them hard to guard and defensively has shifted everything one person away from who Mitchell had to deal with and he’s also become a good off ball defender and gets steals in the kick out lanes.

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    M2 (02-16-2024),Revering4Blue (02-16-2024)

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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Adrian Griffith (30-13).
    Doc Rivers (3-7).

    Doc Rivers needs to step up his game. If he can. I doubt it.

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  13. #218
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Mavs offered the Wizards 2 1st round picks for Kyle Kuzma...

    Wizards GM mulled it over with Kuzma and Kuzma decided to stay.

    Mavs pivoted to Gafford and Washington...bullet dodged by Dallas
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

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    Revering4Blue (02-17-2024),Rojo Rijo (02-19-2024)

  15. #219
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    Mavs offered the Wizards 2 1st round picks for Kyle Kuzma...

    Wizards GM mulled it over with Kuzma and Kuzma decided to stay.

    Mavs pivoted to Gafford and Washington...bullet dodged by Dallas
    Washington has to figure something out. They've got a player in Avdija but they're stuck with Kuzma and Pooles contracts for 3 more seasons at about 53 million combined each year. Kuzma is a #2 for a lottery team, a #3 for a playoff squad. Problem is he thinks of himself as a #1. That's a pretty difficult scenario for a team. For Washington that's their secondary problem. Their primary problem is Jordan Poole who has performed as badly as any new big contract player I can remember. Avdija + Kuzma would be doable, not great but doable. Poole is going to suck the life out of that team, especially on offense and he's going to do it with the entitled attitude because of how much they're paying him. If I were Washington I would give up my 2024 1st unprotected + 2 future seconds and take on some bad money (expirings or deals with just 1 more year) just to get rid of him. He's an infection. Problem is there probably isnt a team dumb enough to bring Poole on board right now.
    Last edited by Rojo Rijo; 02-19-2024 at 02:20 PM.

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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Washington has to figure something out. They've got a player in Avdija but they're stuck with Kuzma and Pooles contracts for 3 more seasons at about 53 million combined each year. Kuzma is a #2 for a lottery team, a #3 for a playoff squad. Problem is he thinks of himself as a #1. That's a pretty difficult scenario for a team. For Washington that's their secondary problem. Their primary problem is Jordan Poole who has performed as badly as any new big contract player I can remember. Avdija + Kuzma would be doable, not great but doable. Poole is going to suck the life out of that team, especially on offense and he's going to do it with the entitled attitude because of how much they're paying him. If I were Washington I would give up my 2024 1st unprotected + 2 future seconds and take on some bad money (expirings or deals with just 1 more year) just to get rid of him. He's an infection. Problem is there probably isnt a team dumb enough to bring Poole on board right now.
    Poole is probably the worst contract in the NBA right now. And you're right that he's an absolute anchor. I don't get why he isn't buried at the end of the bench with Coulibaly in the starting 5. Maybe if they put Poole in mothballs long enough some other team will forget what a disaster he is.

    Kuzma might be all right on the right team. He can fill out a box score. A 22/6/4 guy isn't the worst thing to have.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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    Rojo Rijo (02-20-2024)

  18. #221
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Poole is probably the worst contract in the NBA right now. And you're right that he's an absolute anchor. I don't get why he isn't buried at the end of the bench with Coulibaly in the starting 5. Maybe if they put Poole in mothballs long enough some other team will forget what a disaster he is.

    Kuzma might be all right on the right team. He can fill out a box score. A 22/6/4 guy isn't the worst thing to have.
    For Poole, more than just about anyone I've ever seen, it seems like he got his bag and is just mailing it in. And that's coming from a guy who watched Al Hoford in Philly. At least Kuzma tries to be the best version of himself...it's just that I'm not sure that version exists.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  19. #222
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    I know players just wink at playing D in the All Star Game, but 211-186? Yikes.
    She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning

  20. #223
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    I know players just wink at playing D in the All Star Game, but 211-186? Yikes.
    It looks like the best possible version of the ymca pickup game, which isn’t a compliment.

    I think they should try a 3 on 3 tournament. Play to 15 or 21 by 1s and 2s, single elimination. Seems like it would be fun.

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    Chip R (02-20-2024),M2 (02-20-2024)

  22. #224
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    It looks like the best possible version of the ymca pickup game, which isn’t a compliment.

    I think they should try a 3 on 3 tournament. Play to 15 or 21 by 1s and 2s, single elimination. Seems like it would be fun.
    I'm not sure if that is even an apt description. People aren't continuously chucking up half court shots and playing no defense. I realize that over the past 25 or so years there isn't a lot of defense played in the game. But at least teams were running some semblance of an offense then. What is going to end up happening is that they are going to add gimmicks like they did for the MLB ASG where home field/court advantage in the Finals was decided by the winner of the ASG. Or they will make it like Rock and Jock and get celebrities playing. Eventually they will just scrap it like the NFL did.
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    Re: NBA 2023-24 Part II: Thunderstruck

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Many very intelligent people are saying the Cavs are the best team in the NBA
    When you lose at home to Orlando no one says that.


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