5 Reds On MLB Pipeline Top Prospect List

[757690]

From our buddy Doug

https://www.redlegnation.com/2024/01...100-prospects/

#21 - Marte
#34 - Lowder
#67 - Arroyo
#70 - Phillips
#98 - Petty

[RED VAN HOT]

And the Reds have Collier, Stewart, Cabrera, Jorge, Dunn, and Hurtubise waiting in the wings......at long last, it's good to be a Reds fan.

[RedTeamGo!]

There’s a bunch of others too. Ty Floyd could be a top 100 prospect this time next year.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If Petty can consistently keep his fastball in the upper 90s, I feel really good about him being a top 25 prospect by the end of this season. Ditto Lowder, who has not only a super high floor, but a high ceiling as well. Not sure if Phillips can get there too, but if he can control his BBs, he, too, has TOR stuff.

That's some serious upper level minor league firepower to pay attention to this season.

(It also doesn't include Richardon or Aguiar, who profile as BOR guys. Or Ty Floyd, who might be really good as well.)

[MikeS21]

The encouraging thing about Lowder is that he already possesses a good change-up, and doesn’t need to work on one or develop one. That seems to be a huge weakness among most minor league pitchers.

Can you just imagine if Hunter Greene had Lowder’s change, and he used it 25-30 times a game?

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

The encouraging thing about Lowder is that he already possesses a good change-up, and doesn’t need to work on one or develop one. That seems to be a huge weakness among most minor league pitchers.

Can you just imagine if Hunter Greene had Lowder’s change, and he used it 25-30 times a game?

Lowder, as a pitcher in one of the most competitive arenas in college ball, was probably faced with having to develop a change or end up as a Wednesday pitcher for the Wakes. I suspect Floyd has something working as well, even though his role at LSU was probably just to allow them to win the Saturday game. Skenes took care of the Friday start.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

Duarte is already DFA by the Rangers. This is the time to buy the guy's contract for the same amount as they sold it, with the necessary paper clip attached.

[podgejeff_]

Let's not forget that pick #2 is almost assuredly going to be a top 50 prospect.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Let's not forget that pick #2 is almost assuredly going to be a top 50 prospect.

Because the Reds have an absolute ton of pitching depth, I could see them staying relatively pat on that side of the ball. Phillips may well not be needed for more than a few starts, as he's legitimately 8th in line right now. Richardson might not be needed at all.

Let's assume Richardson does what he did last year: a 3.50 ERA, 6.6 H/9, 13 K/9, 4.9 BB/9. The only difference is that he does it all in AAA and for the entire season. Let's assume he gets to 135 innings. At 24, that's nominally the line of a back-end top 100 guy. Would he even rank in the Reds' top 10? (Okay, that hyperbolic, but he'd definitely be in the back-half of the top 10.)

In AAA, Phillips, Richardson, and Williamson are on the I-71 shuttle. Below them is Carson Spiers and one of an assorted amalgamation of guys, including 40-man holdovers Christian Roa and Levi Stoudt. All of them will be given a role even if they struggle (or released). That limits the opportunities for those below them.

In AA, it might be even more packed. Lowder is likely going to join Chase Petty and Julian Aguiar to front a Chattanooga rotation with Jose Acuna and knuckleballer Alex Blandino (among others) behind, not to mention interesting-ish guys like Thomas Farr, Hunter Parks, and the perpetually-injured Bryce Bonnin.

That leaves Ty Floyd, Hunter Hollan, Logan van Treeck, Javi Rivera, Bryce Hubbart, and the piggyback system in Dayton. Expect 10 starters there, if only to limit some innings and see from among the options who might become someone they then develop at the higher levels.

There's just not much room to move up. Nearly everyone above prospective pitchers either has a 40-man roster spot (which means they will be used and therefore have a role no matter how badly they perform) or they're a legitimate prospect in their own right. This, too, means they're not going to give up that spot and will work with those struggling pitchers. That in turn means that lower level guys who dominate first halves will largely stay where they are-- and put up ridiculous numbers while doing so. Only the most dominant will get a bump-- if even they do.

That, in turn, could lead to guys like Hubbart, Floyd, Hollan, Acuna, etc., slumming it in lower level leagues, putting up great numbers, and getting some serious helium on top 100 lists.

There's not as much of a logjam on the offensive side, though AAA OF could be a spot wherein Dunn, Hurtubise, and Hinds prove they're legitimate guys. If Dunn, for example, puts up the same numbers he did last season in Louisville, he might end up on the back-end of some top 100 lists-- even if he is super old. Were Hinds to hit like he did from late May 2023 forward, a 24% K rate combined with 30/30 upside, he too might get some love. And neither is exactly sure to get PT in Cincinnati this year. The four guys ahead of them are pretty solid, and the Reds might want them to get regular PAs.

The rest of the offense isn't nearly so stacked. In fact, it's relatively putrid until High A. (That's what happens when you graduate an entire infield and two OF in one season.) Those guys, then, have a real chance to advance multiple levels if they show out. The entire minor league system is set up nicely for coddling pitchers and challenging hitters.

[RED VAN HOT]

Always appreciate the effort you put into the minor league posts.

I think people might be overlooking Christian Roa's value. He had trouble in adjusting to new leagues, but after he did, he showed good, if unspectacular, results. His K rate was good. He needs to get his BB rate down. The Reds seem to have some confidence in his ability to be at least a back end starter.

I think this is the year that Levi Stoudt gets moved to the pen.

[WrongVerb]

Also, if some of these prospects DO force their way up, that makes secondary, but still really good, pitchers like Ashcraft and Abbott become expendable in trades for upgrades at the major league level or replenishing the minors with legit prospects. The conveyor belt is starting to creak to life.

[RED VAN HOT]

Also, if some of these prospects DO force their way up, that makes secondary, but still really good, pitchers like Ashcraft and Abbott become expendable in trades for upgrades at the major league level or replenishing the minors with legit prospects. The conveyor belt is starting to creak to life.

I like your analogy of a conveyor belt. Let the churning begin. We, as Reds fan, will have to get over becoming attached to players who will not likely be Reds for life.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

Also, if some of these prospects DO force their way up, that makes secondary, but still really good, pitchers like Ashcraft and Abbott become expendable in trades for upgrades at the major league level or replenishing the minors with legit prospects. The conveyor belt is starting to creak to life.

At the moment, I see Abbott as a guy who survives the flood. Ashcraft seems like an everyday No. 3 guy, which isn't nothing and, to be honest, we are really on strange ground if we start seeing these guys as expendable. All that being fun to think about, since not many teams ever saw their rotation guys as trade chips, the trick is to get these uber-arms into the big leagues eventually. Striking out 9 guys in the Southern League is interesting but not overly useful. As well, it is worth being a bit excited that the Bats are not going to fill their rotation with guys who just got back from a 4-year tour of the Korean leagues.

[VR]

And the Reds have Collier, Stewart, Cabrera, Jorge, Dunn, and Hurtubise waiting in the wings......at long last, it's good to be a Reds fan.

Awesome. And the crop of Elly, MM, CES, Abbott and Williamson have just graduated. Stunning really.


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