Frankie Montas

[WrongVerb]

I hope they are still in the market as well, but the guy I break the 10th commandment for is Jesus Luzardo of Miami. I'd offer Marte, Abbott, Petty and someone like Acosta for him.

Move India into the 1B/3B/DH group with Candy and CES, Luzardo significantly upgrades the Abbott spot in the starting rotation and it costs you a couple of prospects where you already have a ton of depth. Then go sign an Outfielder who mashes LHP (Randal Grichuk? Adam Duvall? Tommy Pham? Michael Taylor) and a Middle Infielder who can't find a job (Donovan Solano?? Tim Anderson?? Amed Rosario??) and go win the division.

Luzardo would be great. I'd also try to get Framber Valdez and his lifetime 62% ground ball rate. Also, if I was going to trade India, I'd send him to Detroit for OF/1b/DH Matt Vierling.

[mth123]

Luzardo would be great. I'd also try to get Framber Valdez and his lifetime 62% ground ball rate. Also, if I was going to trade India, I'd send him to Detroit for OF/1b/DH Matt Vierling.

India for Vierling would be a decent trade, though he struggled against LHP in 2023.

I think I'd keep India and move him into the 3B mix and trade Marte for an Ace. I also love Valdez as a target, but I think the Astros are going to keep him and try to win the World Series. Now that they've signed Hader, I don't see them trading away any major pieces for prospects.

If they can't make a deal for an ace, then a trade of India for some one like Vierling makes sense.

I like India leading off and he hits well against RHP. I don't think he's a 2nd baseman in a non-shift world and he's a poor choice to be a short side of a platoon where he hits mostly against LHP. I hate the idea of using him as a supersub and moving his shaky glove all over the diamond. I think he could be an adequate third baseman for a team in need, which would include the Reds if they were to deal Marte or deal Steer and make Marte an OF.

[RedEye]

I hope they are still in the market as well, but the guy I break the 10th commandment for is Jesus Luzardo of Miami. I'd offer Marte, Abbott, Petty and someone like Acosta for him.

I like Luzardo as a target, but that feels like a massive overpay for a guy who has also had injury concerns. Heck, that package might get you Cease! I would have to think that package sans Marte would be a possible option for Luzardo. I want to keep Noelvi as part of this core -- he arguably looked better than all the others the last month of 2023.

[mth123]

I like Luzardo as a target, but that feels like a massive overpay for a guy who has also had injury concerns. Heck, that package might get you Cease! I would have to think that package sans Marte would be a possible option for Luzardo. I want to keep Noelvi as part of this core -- he arguably looked better than all the others the last month of 2023.

I think Luzardo is way better than Cease and has an extra year of control.

The Marlins have a fairly deep pitching pipeline. They'd want a foundational position player to trade their ace.

[RedEye]

I think Luzardo is way better than Cease and has an extra year of control.

The Marlins have a fairly deep pitching pipeline. They'd want a foundational position player to trade their ace.

I agree that they would want Marte, I just don't think I'd give him to them for a pitcher who has one healthy year. In any case, we are probably debating dueling pipe dreams at this point. I'd be thrilled with either Cease or Luzardo, and I do recognize the Reds would have to give up a lot to get one of them -- most likely giving up multiple cherished prospects.

I wonder if India + Abbott + Petty gets it done?

[mth123]

I agree that they would want Marte, I just don't think I'd give him to them for a pitcher who has one healthy year. In any case, we are probably debating dueling pipe dreams at this point. I'd be thrilled with either Cease or Luzardo, and I do recognize the Reds would have to give up a lot to get one of them -- most likely giving up multiple cherished prospects.

I wonder if India + Abbott + Petty gets it done?

I don't think India has a lot of market value. He's already reached arb, is coming off of two poor seasons in a row and has shown to be fairly inadequate defensively at his primary position. Abbott, Petty seems a decent start, but I think you'd need to add Marte or at least Steer to get anything better than guys the Reds already have. Some team with a farther away timeline might go for a younger minor leaguer instead - maybe Collier or Cabrera, but I don't see any with a pitcher I'd be too interested in.

[Brisco]

Luzardo significantly upgrades the Abbott spot.

Can you tell me what stat or stats you are using to justify this conclusion?

Here are the career stats of the two pitchers:

3.87 vs 3.93 ERA
118 vs 103 ERA+
4.20 vs 3.55 FIP
1.317 vs 1.253 WHIP
1.3 vs 1.3 HR/9
3.6 vs 3.2 BB/9
9.9 vs 10.1 K/9

Note that one of these two puts these stats up in one of the top two hitter's parks.

Maybe we just define significantly differently?

[mth123]

Can you tell me what stat or stats you are using to justify this conclusion?

Here are the career stats of the two pitchers:

3.87 vs 3.93 ERA
118 vs 103 ERA+
4.20 vs 3.55 FIP
1.317 vs 1.253 WHIP
1.3 vs 1.3 HR/9
3.6 vs 3.2 BB/9
9.9 vs 10.1 K/9

Note that one of these two puts these stats up in one of the top two hitter's parks.

Maybe we just define significantly differently?

The stat I use is that I think Abbott is most likely of all the Reds to disappoint. The equation is below:

High fly Ball Rate + Above average hard-hit rate + GABP = Yikes.

He's not a good fit for GABP. I think he could be pretty good for a team with a larger ballpark.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

The stat I use is that I think Abbott is most likely of all the Reds to disappoint. The equation is below:

High fly Ball Rate + Above average hard-hit rate + GABP = Yikes.

He's not a good fit for GABP. I think he could be pretty good for a team with a larger ballpark.

So, like most fans, your assessment is not on whether a different guy UP-grades the roster but whether we can rationalize that the current roster is destined to fail.

That's a narrative that most of us find peculiar. Abbott hasn't pitched one entire season yet. FFS, maybe he will actually improve, which is different from a pre-ordained assessment that what he is, is what he will always be.

[mth123]

So, like most fans, your assessment is not on whether a different guy UP-grades the roster but whether we can rationalize that the current roster is destined to fail.

That's a narrative that most of us find peculiar. Abbott hasn't pitched one entire season yet. FFS, maybe he will actually improve, which is different from a pre-ordained assessment that what he is, is what he will always be.

Both actually. I think Luzardo took a large step forward in 2023 and he's now entering his age 26 season. I believe he's already a better pitcher than anyone in the reds rotation and will likely take another step forward. I think Montas might come close if he can come all the way back to 2021 levels. That is a huge if IMO.

I think Abbott is a terrible fit for GABP. There is a reason I picked that particular spot to be the one to upgrade. I think he'd be a perfectly fine mid-rotation starter in Miami.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

Both actually. I think Luzardo took a large step forward in 2023 and he's now entering his age 26 season. I believe he's already a better pitcher than anyone in the reds rotation and will likely take another step forward. I think Montas might come close if he can come all the way back to 2021 levels. That is a huge if IMO.

I think Abbott is a terrible fit for GABP. There is a reason I picked that particular spot to be the one to upgrade. I think he'd be a perfectly fine mid-rotation starter in Miami.

Key words, as usual:

Think
Believe


I guess you are entitled to that.

[mth123]

Key words, as usual:

Think
Believe


I guess you are entitled to that.

We're talking about what we expect to happen in the future. Isn't anyone who says anything just saying what they think or believe? There really aren't any facts that tell us anything with certainty. It's called the future because it hasn't happened yet.

From everything I've seen to this point I believe Luzardo is a superior pitcher to anyone in the Reds rotation and that Abbott will suffer in GABP with his profile. You may believe otherwise. If so, try providing some reasoning once in a while instead of a lot of prattling on with little substance.

[Brisco]

Both actually. I think Luzardo took a large step forward in 2023 and he's now entering his age 26 season. I believe he's already a better pitcher than anyone in the reds rotation and will likely take another step forward. I think Montas might come close if he can come all the way back to 2021 levels. That is a huge if IMO.

I think Abbott is a terrible fit for GABP. There is a reason I picked that particular spot to be the one to upgrade. I think he'd be a perfectly fine mid-rotation starter in Miami.

Take a second to look at Luzardo in 2021 (the season he started as age 23)

Now look at Abbott for the season he started at age 23.

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Award

2021 23 TOT MLB 6 9 .400 6.61 25 18 1 0 0 0 95.1 106 73 70 20 48 1 98 4 0 8 437 64 5.48 1.615 10.0 1.9 4.5 9.3 2.04

2023 23 CIN NL 8 6 .571 3.87 21 21 0 0 0 0 109.1 100 47 47 16 44 0 120 1 1 1 459 118 4.20 1.317 8.2 1.3 3.6 9.9 2.73

Despite pitching half the season in cavernous Oakland and then Miami, while AA spent the season in Cincy, AA beat Luzardo in EVERY SINGLE PITCHING STAT (except total games... unless you count AA's games in Louisville)
Less hits, les walks, more Ks and way less HR.

Sounds like you would have been likely to give up on Luzardo much faster than you have dumped AA to the curb.

Additional note: who knows what will happen in baseball, but the more objective, less biased baseball reference.com has the following as projected for the two players in 2024:

Projected ERA – 4.01 vs 4.03
Projected WHIP – 1.242 vs 1.298
Projected HR/9 - 1.1 vs 1.3
Projected BB/9 - 3.2 vs 3.5
Projected K/9 – 10.2 vs. 9.6

Luzardo is projected to be better, but I, for one, would not label the difference as "significantly" better.

[mth123]

Take a second to look at Luzardo in 2021 (the season he started as age 23)

Now look at Abbott for the season he started at age 23.

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Award

2021 23 TOT MLB 6 9 .400 6.61 25 18 1 0 0 0 95.1 106 73 70 20 48 1 98 4 0 8 437 64 5.48 1.615 10.0 1.9 4.5 9.3 2.04

2023 23 CIN NL 8 6 .571 3.87 21 21 0 0 0 0 109.1 100 47 47 16 44 0 120 1 1 1 459 118 4.20 1.317 8.2 1.3 3.6 9.9 2.73

Despite pitching half the season in cavernous Oakland and then Miami, while AA spent the season in Cincy, AA beat Luzardo in EVERY SINGLE PITCHING STAT (except total games... unless you count AA's games in Louisville)
Less hits, les walks, more Ks and way less HR.

Sounds like you would have been likely to give up on Luzardo much faster than you have dumped AA to the curb.

I might have. At this point, I think Luzardo looks better than anyone in this rotation. I don't care what he did three years ago. I think all the Reds projected rotation pitchers (including Williamson) are decent options for a big-league rotation. I don't see any terrible number 5 starters along the lines of Luke Weaver or Luis Cessa. Since about half the 150 rotation spots in the big leagues are filled by guys like that, I see that as a terrific opportunity for this team. The problem is I also don't really see any front-line starters either, so I think they need to upgrade at least one spot with someone who is a cut above what they have. I understand that some of these guys might end up becoming that, but I think the Reds are in a position to add one guy who is already there. I believe Luzardo qualifies.

The next question is which spot should they upgrade? They aren't moving Montas and his salary out of the rotation. Greene has the highest ceiling and is most likely to step forward to front-line caliber. That leaves Abbott, Ashcraft or Lodolo. IMO, Abbott, allowing a high fly ball rate, above average exit velocity and pitching in GABP is the least likely to be successful moving forward. He's coming off of a good year, so he likely has a lot of value. And the hard-hit fly balls seem likely to catch up with him in Cincinnati. He's the guy I pick. He's an attractive choice to a team that isn't in such an extreme park that he may actually allow the Reds to get the kind of guy I'm talking about back. They aren't getting a frontline guy for Carson Spiers and Casey Legumina.

They aren't really going to make this trade, so it doesn't really mean much, and Abbott will be solidly in the Reds rotation in 2024. I just suspect if any of these guys crash, it will be him. Then they won't be able to deal him for anything with a lot of value. I remember a lot of guys more highly regarded than Andrew Abbott not amounting to much in Cincinnati. The Reds ended up getting little to nothing out of them.

[Brisco]

I might have. At this point, I think Luzardo looks better than anyone in this rotation. I don't care what he did three years ago. I think all the Reds projected rotation pitchers (including Williamson) are decent options for a big-league rotation. I don't see any terrible number 5 starters along the lines of Luke Weaver or Luis Cessa. Since about half the 150 rotation spots in the big leagues are filled by guys like that, I see that as a terrific opportunity for this team. The problem is I also don't really see any front-line starters either, so I think they need to upgrade at least one spot with someone who is a cut above what they have. I understand that some of these guys might end up becoming that, but I think the Reds are in a position to add one guy who is already there. I believe Luzardo qualifies.

The next question is which spot should they upgrade? They aren't moving Montas and his salary out of the rotation. Greene has the highest ceiling and is most likely to step forward to front-line caliber. That leaves Abbott, Ashcraft or Lodolo. IMO, Abbot, allowing a high fly ball rate, above average exit velocity and pitching in GABP is the least likely to be successful moving forward. He's coming off of a good year, so he likely has a lot of value. And the hard-hit fly balls seem likely to catch up with him in Cincinnati. He's the guy I pick. He's an attractive choice to a team that isn't in such an extreme park that he may actually allow the Reds to get the kind of guy I'm talking about back. They aren't getting a frontline guy for Carson Spiers and Casey Legumina.

They aren't really going to make this trade, so it doesn't really mean much, and Abbott will be solidly in the Reds rotation in 2024. I just suspect if any of these guys crash, it will be him. Then they won't be able to deal him for anything with a lot of value. I remember a lot of guys more highly regarded than Andrew Abbott not amounting to much in Cincinnati. The Reds ended up getting little to nothing out of them.

Luzardo could do very well... but as you can see from my Quantity over Quality Moneyball thread, I think that the value of the TOR starter is in a period of decline. Of the 25-30 consensus TOR SP in the majors, somewhere between 40-60% are going to pitch less than 160 innings in 2024 and about 1/5 to 1/4th of them will pitch less than 100 innings. That means that your huge investment in Luzardo (and the cost you listed IS huge) has a 20-25% chance of yielding minimal return in 2024. Given Luzardo's injury history, that number may be closer to 33%.

I would also say that there is a 50% chance that a current Red will outperform Luzardo this year. I am just not sure which one. Maybe Abbott.

Building a baseball roster is all about managing risk. Krall is going the safest of routes and i support that approach.