Elly De La Cruz

[SunDeck]

I'll take defer to coach Washington on this one.

[M2]

How much longer until Topps is gone? I thought Fantatics bought them out?

Well, they're running a commercial with Acuna, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Julio Rodriguez and a pile of others, so I'm thinking the Topps brand isn't in any imminent danger.

Though the point was they lingered on Elly D. Pretty decent 3rd party validation of "wow, this guy, you're going to want his card."

[Brisco]

EDLC minors numbers is built on the mirage of high bapip just like Senzel minor league numbers

Isn't it pretty well understood that players with elite speed combined with high exit velocities will always outperform the league in BABIP?

Here is a quote from a statistical study of BABIP:

"... it is undeniable that certain skills, such as the ability to hit for a consistently high exit velocity or faster average sprint speeds are going to contribute to a player's ability to hit for a higher BABIP..."

Last season LED hit the ball 3 mph harder than the MLB average and ran faster than just about everyone in MLB. It would be pretty shocking if his BABIP was NOT significantly higher in the minors!!!

[SteelSD]

Isn't it pretty well understood that players with elite speed combined with high exit velocities will always outperform the league in BABIP?

Here is a quote from a statistical study of BABIP:

"... it is undeniable that certain skills, such as the ability to hit for a consistently high exit velocity or faster average sprint speeds are going to contribute to a player's ability to hit for a higher BABIP..."

Last season LED hit the ball 3 mph harder than the MLB average and ran faster than just about everyone in MLB. It would be pretty shocking if his BABIP was NOT significantly higher in the minors!!!

Here's the link to the full article (links are better than making folks search for it, BTW):

https://baseballcloud.blog/2021/04/0...ck%20involved.

The article's author is overselling a bit (maybe quite a bit), and you're lending too much credence to the partial sentence you've quoted. The author also makes a major mistake when putting together his study- a ton of player seasons he includes in his data set have as few as 100 PA. Going with that minimum over 2017-19 simply poisons his sample due to the incorporation of unreliable results. He even implies that it's folly to rely on sample sizes that small when he mentions Willi Castro's unrepeatable 2020 .448 BABIP over 140 PA, but he goes ahead and does it anyway. Even then, he's only able to produce weak to very weak correlations between BABIP and single attributes like sprint speed or exit velocity (represented as "launch speed" in the study, I believe). And those correlations may be overblown, especially when compared to previous studies using more stable higher-PA "qualified" samples, such as the following:

https://pitcherlist.com/going-deep-a...e%20of%20BABIP

This study identifies a very low correlation between BABIP and sprint speed and virtually no correlation between BABIP and exit velocity.

Now, this doesn't mean that there isn't a multi-attribute "profile" that could help identify hitters who are likely to outperform MLB averge BABIP rates. But I'd suggest that looking at just sprint speed and EV isn't the right way to go about it, can lead to false positives, and that incorporating the type of balls in play probably needs to be factored in.

All that said, Insane isn't entirely incorrect- De La Cruz' BABIP numbers in the minors were far too high to be trusted and can't reasonably be explained simply by pointing to "fast" and "hits balls hard". And THAT being said, I agree with woy (and most folks) that there's no point in sending De La Cruz to AAA. For example, if Insane believes that part of De La Cruz' MiLB success was due to how minor league hurlers pitched him, there's no reason for De La Cruz to continue to work on the challenges that don't exist at that level. Seems to me that he's only going to improve by being challenged, and De La Cruz didn't perform so poorly last season that it mandates he be targeted for demotion to work on getting himself right.

[LiferJim]

If you are a team that plans on contending and a guy is hitting terrible for months, then he is hurting your chances of making the post season. Therefore, no matter what his name is or his ranking, you owe it to your other players and fans to make sure the guy can hit major league pitching consistently, before forcing him to do so, at the expense of everyone else. That said, I expect Elly to improve greatly this year


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[RiverfrontRed]

Those hating on Elly are practically clueless.

[westofyou]

Baseball is a five tool sport, not everyone has every tool, nor does everyone have control of every tool. Nobody comes into the league a finished product, Elly will have a greater chance to fail than Jose Barrio or Cody Reed got, it's also less likely to be as painful if he fails in an aspect of it, because he brings a lot of other elite tools to the table that he can leverage.

It's talent like Elly that brings eyes to the game, if he fails another will arrive to take his place, expect growing pains and numerous articles on his struggles or triumph's, be happy he's a Red and not a Cardinal and enjoy what he may give you.

[PuffyPig]

He should have spent the 2nd half of last season at AAA. It was sickening to watch him at the plate apparently clueless, unwilling or unable to change

I hope he gets it together, I wouldn't be surprised if he spends some time in AAA except Reds management is more about the hype and would like to avoid a AAA stint

You must have been watching someone else.

EDCL was a joy to watch, even when he struggled.

It was clear he was working hard to improve.

[Roy Tucker]

I’m chalking up the second half of his last year to youth and realism. He blazed through the minors displaying incredible talent and tools. He came up to the Reds and similarly displayed incandescent talent and results. Everyone anointed him as the next superstar Red and then reality set in. He was 21 and the league began to work on him and figure out his weaknesses and pound him on those. Learning how to make adjustments and more fully develop his skills at the top-most level is his next step. Happens to every MLB player and I am optimistic he’ll succeed.

But nothing is 100% for sure and we’ll just have to watch and hope he does succeed. The Reds will support him with coaching and his teammates will also support him. And hopefully Reds fans will too. I know I will.

[Larry Schuler]

I look at Elly and all I see is Aquino. That tells you something.

[MikeS21]

I say relax. Last year, EDLC was 21 years old playing against elite players who were 6-8 years older (or older). His tools got him that far, and he discovered that everybody had tools. Give him a chance to grow.

[j.u.FAIRFIIELD]

I know I'd sure rather have Jose Iglesias playing shortstop than somebody who looks like Aquino.

[RedTeamGo!]

Can’t wait for 7 months of Elly actually sucks talk

[mth123]

So I'm reading he's either going to be a 2024 All Star or he'll be a bust who belongs in AAA. There is a middle ground here. I'm guessing he may be a couple of years away from the star levels we're dreaming on, but he'll be at least average defensively at SS with a minimum OPS of .700 with a lot of steals and baserunning value to go with it. If he does that, he certainly won't be a reason the Reds lose and he and McLain are really the only middle infielders we can say that about. There is no reason to send him down and there really isn't a good alternative in the MI if they do.

[Mitri]

One thing I'd like to see Elly do is quit Instagram until he gets his strikeout rate under 25%, then he can post but only a few times a week. He's got to quit the commercials too. Changing his name to Rusty or Scooter wouldn't hurt.