2024 Starting Pitchers Rotation

[JCM11]

I still maintain that if the Reds fill all of their team needs this off season one of those needs will have to be filled via trade. They aren't doing it all in FA. It might be time for the modern day "Latos trade" where they have to pony up some real pieces to get a cost controlled difference maker.

[mth123]

I still maintain that if the Reds fill all of their team needs this off season one of those needs will have to be filled via trade. They aren't doing it all in FA. It might be time for the modern day "Latos trade" where they have to pony up some real pieces to get a cost controlled difference maker.

Absolutely.

[Kc61]

Martinez should be their #1 target. They know what they have with him, he's a team leader, and he's proven he can pitch there. Burnes and Wheeler are also free agents, but they're not realistic targets. I don't want to hear the FO talk about how they gave Martinez a competitive offer but came up just short. They need to make it happen. Other than Greene, he was the most valuable pitcher on the staff this year.

I think Buehler would also be a good target (something like Montas' contract last year). He might be willing to listen considering he's a local product.

Just remember this. The Reds are economic actors. If they spend more resources on Door#1, they will spend less on Door#2. Time has proven this.

There are no free rides.

So whatever you wish for the numbers must add up. Fuzzy math won’t work. I would choose a clear priority with sufficient resources expended there. We can disagree on that, but a major fix in multiple areas is a long shot.

[mth123]

Just remember this. The Reds are economic actors. If they spend more resources on Door#1, they will spend less on Door#2. Time has proven this.

There are no free rides.

So whatever you wish for the numbers must add up. Fuzzy math won’t work. I would choose a clear priority with sufficient resources expended there. We can disagree on that, but a major fix in multiple areas is a long shot.

I don't think anyone is disagreeing. A $25 to $30 Million per year middle of the order bat is needed. A $12 to $15 Million per year starting pitcher. A $10 to $12 Million high leverage reliever. IMO, if they don't do all of it, they may as well not do any of it. I think they need all those things to win. They might sneak into the play-offs with 85 wins if they do 2 of the 3, but won't really be a serious contender for a championship. Do all three and, IMO, they have a chance to do damage in the post-season if they can avoid the rash of injuries. They'll probably need to trade for somebody who produces like those three additions but makes less money, but no matter how they go about it, they need to acquire those things without subtracting much production from the big-league team other than the guys who will leave anyway.

So there are your priorities, but just because the bat is a higher priority, it doesn't mean the others aren't necessary.

[JCM11]

Could they offer Martinez a QO at 21 million? I don't think they would out of fear he'd take it, but I've seen the idea thrown around. We still need to see what happens with 20+ million in options for Junis, Pagan, Suter, and Maile to know how many holes need filled and what the starting payroll for the off season is.

[mth123]

Could they offer Martinez a QO at 21 million? I don't think they would out of fear he'd take it, but I've seen the idea thrown around. We still need to see what happens with 20+ million in options for Junis, Pagan, Suter, and Maile to know how many holes need filled and what the starting payroll for the off season is.

I think they could and not sure if they will. If he takes it, it would solve the rotation issue, but I think it's more than they need to devote to it. I'd be happy If Pagan, Junis and Maile opted out. I'm OK with Suter either way. He's a decent lefty and that's fine, but he's not a high leverage arm IMO, so if he leaves, I think he could be replaced for similar dollars.

[Kc61]

I don't think anyone is disagreeing. A $25 to $30 Million per year middle of the order bat is needed. A $12 to $15 Million per year starting pitcher. A $10 to $12 Million high leverage reliever. IMO, if they don't do all of it, they may as well not do any of it. I think they need all those things to win. They might sneak into the play-offs with 85 wins if they do 2 of the 3, but won't really be a serious contender for a championship. Do all three and, IMO, they have a chance to do damage in the post-season if they can avoid the rash of injuries. They'll probably need to trade for somebody who produces like those three additions but makes less money, but no matter how they go about it, they need to acquire those things without subtracting much production from the big-league team other than the guys who will leave anyway.

So there are your priorities, but just because the bat is a higher priority, it doesn't mean the others aren't necessary.

To get the MOR starter you want is probably multiple years st $15 mill per, or more.

I don’t see Reds doing that and also spending for what they need on the position side.

We’ll see soon enough,

[LeatherPants]

To get the MOR starter you want is probably multiple years st $15 mill per, or more.

I don’t see Reds doing that and also spending for what they need on the position side.

We’ll see soon enough,

If they don’t we are right back here this time next year. This doesn’t even take into consideration what the other teams in the division might do to get better.

[757690]

Small sample size alert:

Connor Phillips has a 2.29 ERA in his last 4 Louisville starts. More importantly, 19.2 IP, 23 K, 6 BB.

[VI_RedsFan]

I think they could and not sure if they will. If he takes it, it would solve the rotation issue, but I think it's more than they need to devote to it. I'd be happy If Pagan, Junis and Maile opted out. I'm OK with Suter either way. He's a decent lefty and that's fine, but he's not a high leverage arm IMO, so if he leaves, I think he could be replaced for similar dollars.

Maile’s a team option actually. He’s been so awful this year that I assumed they’d decline the option and upgrade the backup catcher spot, but both Sheldon and C. Trent wrote this week that they think it’s likely the Reds pick it up. “Intangibles.” That would be disappointing but, speaking of priorities, I’d rather they spend on more important needs (two bats, a starter, a reliever or two).

If I had to make a prediction, I’d say the team trades for a bat, signs another and uses the rest of the money on pitching in free agency. How much they’ll spend is anyone’s guess. At the very least, I hope we see a payroll bump for 2025.

[mth123]

To get the MOR starter you want is probably multiple years st $15 mill per, or more.

I don’t see Reds doing that and also spending for what they need on the position side.

We’ll see soon enough,

I'm skeptical that the Reds will choose to do what is necessary or have the acumen to do it even if they choose to, but IMO, that is what they need to do to have a serious team in 2025. If they do 2 of the 3, which is still a lot IMO, they probably won't make the play-offs. That's just how I see the team at the moment.

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Maile’s a team option actually. He’s been so awful this year that I assumed they’d decline the option and upgrade the backup catcher spot, but both Sheldon and C. Trent wrote this week that they think it’s likely the Reds pick it up. “Intangibles.” That would be disappointing but, speaking of priorities, I’d rather they spend on more important needs (two bats, a starter, a reliever or two).

If I had to make a prediction, I’d say the team trades for a bat, signs another and uses the rest of the money on pitching in free agency. How much they’ll spend is anyone’s guess. At the very least, I hope we see a payroll bump for 2025.

You are right. They either need to go cheaper at back-up Catcher with somebody like Wynns who will be just as crappy but less expensive or invest more and get a better player.

[maniem]

To get the MOR starter you want is probably multiple years st $15 mill per, or more.

I don’t see Reds doing that and also spending for what they need on the position side.

We’ll see soon enough,

Montas' salary is off the books, so they should be able to handle that. They'll just have to be willing to potentially go 3 years to keep the AAV around 15 mil. It's a risk, but Martinez is versatile, durable, and doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm. It will take him through his age 36 year. If he likes it in Cincy and is willing to stay, they need to make it happen.

Other MOR SP's that could be potential fits if Martinez goes elsewhere: Jose Quintana, Walker Buehler

As you mentioned, they also need help on the position side, mainly a middle of the order bat or an outfielder. A few potential fits could be Alonso, Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, O'Neill, JD Martinez, Santander. Of that group, Alonso makes the most sense and would be the surest thing, but the chances of signing him are likely low as there will be many teams competing for his services. He'll probably get 25-30 mil year, and I doubt the Reds will even entertain that, they never have before. Bellinger would be a great target as he would fill their biggest need (middle of the order and plays OF), but he's most likely out of their price range also. Hernandez would be the only other option, but i'm guessing LA resigns him. The others have too much injury/performance risk or play DH, where there is an obvious logjam.

So, the Reds either need to spend big on a FA SP and potentially trade for more offense, or they'll spend big for a FA thumper and try to acquire more pitching through a trade. Most of the difference makers on offense are out of their price range (so they say), so i feel like a solid SP (like Martinez) should be their top target.

[Kc61]

Montas' salary is off the books, so they should be able to handle that. They'll just have to be willing to potentially go 3 years to keep the AAV around 15 mil. It's a risk, but Martinez is versatile, durable, and doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm. It will take him through his age 36 year. If he likes it in Cincy and is willing to stay, they need to make it happen.

Other MOR SP's that could be potential fits if Martinez goes elsewhere: Jose Quintana, Walker Buehler

As you mentioned, they also need help on the position side, mainly a middle of the order bat or an outfielder. A few potential fits could be Alonso, Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, O'Neill, JD Martinez, Santander. Of that group, Alonso makes the most sense and would be the surest thing, but the chances of signing him are likely low as there will be many teams competing for his services. He'll probably get 25-30 mil year, and I doubt the Reds will even entertain that, they never have before. Bellinger would be a great target as he would fill their biggest need (middle of the order and plays OF), but he's most likely out of their price range also. Hernandez would be the only other option, but i'm guessing LA resigns him. The others have too much injury/performance risk or play DH, where there is an obvious logjam.

So, the Reds either need to spend big on a FA SP and potentially trade for more offense, or they'll spend big for a FA thumper and try to acquire more pitching through a trade. Most of the difference makers on offense are out of their price range (so they say), so i feel like a solid SP (like Martinez) should be their top target.

To be clear - Reds need more than a big hitter on the position side. They need more than one bat and need to reorganize to end the years of lousy defense. This may or may not require even more spending on the position side.

If McLain returns healthy that would be a good, inexpensive step. They need to reduce the # of first base/DHs. Need to figure out third base. Need to get Friedl to a corner and add CF defense whether full time or part time.

Again, this part may or may not require much spending but the current position player group needs to be molded into something that works better offensively and defensively.

[Ron Madden]

When it comes to Cincinnati's rotation, there's both certainty and fluidity.

Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott appear locked into next season's rotation. However, all are currently on the injured list and all have durability issues to overcome. Greene has been on the IL in each of his three MLB seasons and Lodolo has made four trips to the IL in 2024 after being limited to seven starts in '23.

Nick Martinez can opt out of his two-year contract after this season. Graham Ashcraft has been out since July and struggled before his right elbow injury. Reds No. 2 prospect (No. 32 overall) Rhett Lowder has made a good case with a 1.74 ERA through his four starts.

One other contender was removed from the mix when Brandon Williamson tore his ulnar collateral ligament on Tuesday. Williamson will need Tommy John surgery on his left elbow that all but wipes out his chances at returning in 2025.

Then there is Aguiar. Entering Thursday, the Reds had won all six of the 23-year-old's starts in the big leagues including the last three against playoff contenders in the Astros, Mets and Twins.

Julian Aguiar wants to be included in those plans, but the rookie showed he still has work to do during a Reds loss to the Braves on Thursday.

What’s going to make Aggie good is his command, and it was off a tick today. Reds manager David Bell said.

“He's is a competitor," said rookie center fielder Blake Dunn. "I played with him last year. I played with him this year. He goes out there and competes. He attacks the zone. He fills it up. He misses the barrel a lot, gets guys to ground out, or lazy fly balls and stuff like that. Obviously today, he just didn’t have it."

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/julian...eline-coverage

[herbdizzle]

With Lowders emergence Id like to see the Reds resign Martinez and set the opening day rotation og Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Lowder, and Martinez.

Id also work out a deal with Junis. ALL available payflex should go to fixing the OF.