Reds Acquire Santiago Espinal

[mth123]

I disagree on the major hole. If you go into 2025 with Steer, Friedl, Fraley/Hinds or <$5M platoon FA, that will be fine enough. Unless you are getting Soto, Bellinger or maybe Santander, I'm taking Chapman

What I think is likely to happen is that the Reds won't add anyone.

CES, McLain, EDLC and Marte around the IF. Candy at DH. Steer and Friedl and everybody else in the OF (including Benson, Espinal, India, Weimer, Hinds, Fairchild, Tom Dick and Harry). Fraley is probably dealt away or non-tendered to save money.

Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Williamson and Lowder in the rotation.

They may add a couple of cheap bullpen pieces like they did last year with Farmer and Wilson. They'll replace Martinez with Spiers. They'll give Cruz another shot but maybe as a multi-inning guy. Not sure if they'll bring back Suter since he makes over the minimum. Diaz, Moll and Pagan will be the back-end with Santillan given first crack to join them. We'll hear talk of Ian Gibaut and Tejay Antone coming back. If Ashcraft isn't on the IL, he may get a shot out there.

And they'll win 75 games, but the payroll with be at around $90 Million and everyone in the organization will be happy that they successfully avoided another peak.

[MoneyInTheBank]

What I think is likely to happen is that the Reds won't add anyone.

CES, McLain, EDLC and Marte around the IF. Candy at DH. Steer and Friedl and everybody else in the OF (including Benson, Espinal, India, Weimer, Hinds, Fairchild, Tom Dick and Harry). Fraley is probably dealt away or non-tendered to save money.

Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Williamson and Lowder in the rotation.

They may add a couple of cheap bullpen pieces like they did last year with Farmer and Wilson. They'll replace Martinez with Spiers. They'll give Cruz another shot but maybe as a multi-inning guy. Not sure if they'll bring back Suter since he makes over the minimum. Diaz, Moll and Pagan will be the back-end with Santillan given first crack to join them. We'll hear talk of Ian Gibaut and Tejay Antone coming back. If Ashcraft isn't on the IL, he may get a shot out there.

And they'll win 75 games, but the payroll with be at around $90 Million and everyone in the organization will be happy that they successfully avoided another peak.

This is extremely cynical. They will almost certainly add to the roster this offseason. They could have easily justified sitting on their hands with the IF last offseason but added Candy out of nowhere. They added Montas and Martinez to the rotation that desperately needed help. Pagan and Suter were big-ish adds to the bullpen. Did they spend their money wisely? I don't think so but they try to address some needs. Will they fill your entire wishlist to your liking? Almost certainly not. A cleanup hitter, a top of the rotation starter and a shutdown reliever will be over budget, whether that is in $ or prospect cost

[Bourgeois Zee]

A cleanup hitter, a top of the rotation starter and a shutdown reliever will be over budget, whether that is in $ or prospect cost

I suspect they'll add a rather big (and expensive) bat, a BOR SP similar to Luke Weaver, and two or three RP arms.

Most of that will be added through free agency.

[mth123]

This is extremely cynical. They will almost certainly add to the roster this offseason. They could have easily justified sitting on their hands with the IF last offseason but added Candy out of nowhere. They added Montas and Martinez to the rotation that desperately needed help. Pagan and Suter were big-ish adds to the bullpen. Did they spend their money wisely? I don't think so but they try to address some needs. Will they fill your entire wishlist to your liking? Almost certainly not. A cleanup hitter, a top of the rotation starter and a shutdown reliever will be over budget, whether that is in $ or prospect cost

I didn't say a top of the rotation starter. Middle of the rotation. I'm thinking $50 Million investment. 50 to 55 percent of that towards the clean-up hitter (say $27 or $28 Million, a starter in the 12 to 13 million range and a reliever in the 10 million range. With arb raises, guys leaving and one-time costs that won't repeat, the Reds are saving roughly $35 Million if they do nothing. I don't think adding another $15 to $20 Million to the payroll is much in a year where they should have a chance to be pretty good with the right additions.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I didn't say a top of the rotation starter. Middle of the rotation. I'm thinking $50 Million investment. 50 to 55 percent of that towards the clean-up hitter (say $27 or $28 Million, a starter in the 12 to 13 million range and a reliever in the 10 million range. With arb raises, guys leaving and one-time costs that won't repeat, the Reds are saving roughly $35 Million if they do nothing. I don't think adding another $15 to $20 Million to the payroll is much in a year where they should have a chance to be pretty good with the right additions.

I'm going to trust your math that it will only add $15M to the payroll but I do think that $50M will be over their budget. Assuming you're correct, I think they'll budget for 2 of those 3, at most. That will be in-between the do nothing prediction and the ideal scenario for you. Will that be "not trying"? Or will you consider it progress?

[JCM11]

What I think is likely to happen is that the Reds won't add anyone.

CES, McLain, EDLC and Marte around the IF. Candy at DH. Steer and Friedl and everybody else in the OF (including Benson, Espinal, India, Weimer, Hinds, Fairchild, Tom Dick and Harry). Fraley is probably dealt away or non-tendered to save money.

Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Williamson and Lowder in the rotation.

They may add a couple of cheap bullpen pieces like they did last year with Farmer and Wilson. They'll replace Martinez with Spiers. They'll give Cruz another shot but maybe as a multi-inning guy. Not sure if they'll bring back Suter since he makes over the minimum. Diaz, Moll and Pagan will be the back-end with Santillan given first crack to join them. We'll hear talk of Ian Gibaut and Tejay Antone coming back. If Ashcraft isn't on the IL, he may get a shot out there.

And they'll win 75 games, but the payroll with be at around $90 Million and everyone in the organization will be happy that they successfully avoided another peak.

That group would be around 70 million if Martinez opts out, they non tender Fraley, and don't bring Suter back.

[mth123]

I'm going to trust your math that it will only add $15M to the payroll but I do think that $50M will be over their budget. Assuming you're correct, I think they'll budget for 2 of those 3, at most. That will be in-between the do nothing prediction and the ideal scenario for you. Will that be "not trying"? Or will you consider it progress?

I consider it a half measure. Just good enough to fool people into thinking you're trying. Not good enough to accomplish the objective. You can fail with a grade of 40 or fail with a grade of 58. Improving from 40 to 58 looks like progress, but it's still failing.

The Reds should do what they need to while EDLC and Greene are still here. After the next 5 years, when they are both gone, they can take these year or year improvements to try and maintain respectability. Right now, they have an MVP Candidate and a CY Young Candidate and won't have a better chance to win a world series. They can do everything right and still come up short, so they need to take as many shots at it as they can to hopefully win one. They have 5 shots at it. Now is not the time to waste one just aiming in the general direction of improving. Time to zero in on the target.

[mth123]

That group would be around 70 million if Martinez opts out, they non tender Fraley, and don't bring Suter back.

They need to pay arb raises to Stephenson, Moll and Diaz. They have pre-established raises for Candelario, Greene and India. They will need to buy-out Suter, Junis and Maile. I took a ballpark shot. I don't know the exact number.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I consider it a half measure. Just good enough to fool people into thinking you're trying. Not good enough to accomplish the objective. You can fail with a grade of 40 or fail with a grade of 58. Improving from 40 to 58 looks like progress, but it's still failing.

The Reds should do what they need to while EDLC and Greene are still here. After the next 5 years, when they are both gone, they can take these year or year improvements to try and maintain respectability. Right now, they have an MVP Candidate and a CY Young Candidate and won't have a better chance to win a world series. They can do everything right and still come up short, so they need to take as many shots at it as they can to hopefully win one. They have 5 shots at it. Now is not the time to waste one just aiming in the general direction of improving. Time to zero in on the target.

Seems a bit harsh. If they get a cleanup hitter and one of a shutdown reliever or a starter, I'd be ecstatic. But I'd just be one of the rubes because they didn't get all 3?

[JCM11]

They need to pay arb raises to Stephenson, Moll and Diaz. They have pre-established raises for Candelario, Greene and India. They will need to buy-out Suter, Junis and Maile. I took a ballpark shot. I don't know the exact number.

All the arb $ is factored into my guess. I just didn't count the pre arb guys into the total.
Greene 6, Candy 16, Pagan 8, India 5, Junis 3, Suter 250k, Maile 500k, That's around 40 in guaranteed $. The arb deals by my high end estimations will be

Espinal 4.5, Stephenson 6, Fraley 3.5, Diaz 5, Moll 3, Lodolo 4.5 so that's around 27 or so for the arb eligible guys and if I'm low I don't see that number getting much past 30. So that's maybe 70 before the pre arb guys are added which brings it close to 80 with them needing a back up catcher, an OF bat, and a good RP at minimum. Probably need to go to 110 or so to fill those needs and that's with no SP added.

candy is the back breaker here as he really doesn't add much now that we see he can't play 3B. It would help the roster construction if they could dump him and turn that $ into a good OF or SP.

[mth123]

Seems a bit harsh. If they get a cleanup hitter and one of a shutdown reliever or a starter, I'd be ecstatic. But I'd just be one of the rubes because they didn't get all 3?

It should improve them. Maybe my issue is that I'm older than you. I think the Greene, EDLC window is probably the last time they'll have a chance to have a top caliber team in my lifetime. I don't want them to waste any of those 5 years trusting to too much uncertainty. They have a lot of uncertainty in all areas. Offense, Defense, Rotation and Bullpen. If Lodolo was more reliable I'd be a little less adamant that they need a starter. I just think he'll likely miss a lot of starts again and they'll have a rotation with Greene, a HR Prone Abbott, a rookie in Lowder and two holes to fill from the depth guys. I think they need another starter so the depth doesn't have to cover as many starts. If they are all healthy and the depth has to wait around in long relief or AAA, fine by me.

[TRF]

I don't think the Reds believe anyone replaces 1-3 in their rotation: Greene, Lodolo, Abbott. Bringing up Lowder and Williamson for the rest of the season means one or both are probably in the rotation to start next year. IF they get an SP, it's a guy between 29-33 on a one-year prove-it contract OR they pay for 3 years of Montas.

As for Espinal, everyone is focusing on two things, incorrectly in my opinion. The first is he replaces Marte. The second is finding room for India.

Instead we should be looking at McLain. He's not guaranteed a healthy return and just had a setback. Espinal at 2B if McLain is out or as the UT is ideal.

India has nice overall numbers, but they are so heavily buoyed by One. Hot. Month. March/April, May, July and August? Terrible. June was fantastic. June is not the season.

So he should be moved. Not because he can be replaced by Espinal, but because he should be replaced by McLain. Espinal is there to give 3 IF positions a breather, and maybe LF on occasion.

I will say this. I see what you did Cincinnati Reds. Everyone complained about your trade deadline, but I see you. Friedl hurt most of the year, maybe he can't go long-term. Go get a former top prospect that has a howitzer for an arm and solid power in Weimer. CES hurt, will he be ready? Go get Ty France, who will be arb eligible, but under team control. 3B might be a concern, hello Mr Rosario. No risk kicking the tires there, he's a FA to be. Martinez has an opt-out, enter Junis. Will the Reds pick up his option? Will Junis?

You may not like their plan. But it is a plan and they have been sticking to it the past three seasons. They are not bothered by 1 year $15-20M contracts. They end or are dealt for prospects. I bet they can't be super happy about how Candelario has worked out so far. 3 years to them for a FA is anathema.

It's why we are seeing Dunn and Hinds despite terrible AAA numbers. Because one of them plus Weimer MIGHT see a lightbulb come on and stay on. Athletically, all three are outstanding. It's the skills that are questioned. There is no help coming from AA, and the system's best position players in the minors are 19 and 20 and at High A. Not a realistic option at this point. Side note, I really hope Ichiro Cano makes it to the Reds someday. Just cuz.

But, but, but the OF! It needs a FA star! Well, the Reds are not getting one of those. But maybe O'Neill? Maybe Profar or Teoscar. But more than likely Michael A Taylor. Or Slater. Or Renfroe. Maybe Pham. Some guys they had and let go or journeymen having a good run.

Not Soto. Nor Verdugo. Not Bellinger.

But Winker seems healthy.

[JCM11]

I like Conforto as a possible OF target if they don't go for the top of the FA market(which we all know they won't). Conforto has 21 HR on the road the past 2 seasons in under 500 PA. He has an .800+ road OPS this year, and is hitting the ball hard(90 MPH avg EV). Plus he doesn't strike out at the rate of some of these other OF options do. He just can't hit in SF.

[CySeymour]

I like Conforto as a possible OF target if they don't go for the top of the FA market(which we all know they won't). Conforto has 21 HR on the road the past 2 seasons in under 500 PA. He has an .800+ road OPS this year, and is hitting the ball hard(90 MPH avg EV). Plus he doesn't strike out at the rate of some of these other OF options do. He just can't hit in SF.

The one thing about Conforto is his defense seems to be sub-standard. If he's not going to hit well, he really becomes an expensive liability like Candelario.

[Kc61]

The last time Reds were short on hitters and rebuild wasn’t working out they signed Castellanos. I think they’ll try for someone along those lines this off-season. It likely won’t be a standard LTC. It could involve player opt outs, or simply be short term.

They signed Cast late in the off-season after 2019, after most other candidates were signed elsewhere. I see that possiblly recurring. Whether it be Teoscar or O’Neill or Conforto - someone will see his market shrinking and then Reds will pounce.

IMO that will be their major play this off-season. I’d like to see more, but OTOH I don't think they’ll bail out altogether. I think they’ll do something.