Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 52

Thread: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,889

    Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Early, but here are a few stats so far. Reds are 11-9, +18 run differential, pythag W-L is 12-8. Comparisons are to full season stats for 2023.

    Big improvement in team ERA. Was 4.83 last season, currently 4.12. Starting ERA is 4.04, last year was 5.43, massive improvement. Bullpen ERA is 4.24, just slightly worse than 2023, 4.11. Reds team FIP is 4.12, same as ERA, so external factors (defense, luck) are not hurting or helping at this point. Walks/9 innings, usually a Reds problem, improved a bit, was 3.83 last year, now 3.61.

    Team OPS is .717, well below last season. But notably, MLB OPS average is down from last season and Reds have had injuries/illness among position players. Reds Secondary Average leads MLB at .336. Secondary average measures extra bases gained on hits, walks and stolen bases. Reds lead MLB in steals with 38 (and CS with 10). Reds 10th in SLG, .405, but 18th in OBP, .312. Low OBP despite solid walk rate, 6th in MLB, 10.2%.

    Fielding stats are weak, Fangraphs Def -5.8, OAA -6, DRS -6. But overall Reds allowing 4.55 runs per game v 5.07 last season, so run prevention generally has been much better so far.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-21-2024 at 09:18 AM.

  2. Likes:

    757690 (04-21-2024),Boss-Hog (04-22-2024),Cherokee (04-21-2024),goreds2 (04-21-2024),KeefeCato (04-23-2024),Kingspoint (04-22-2024),Marc D (04-21-2024),RedsfaninMT (04-21-2024),RiverRat13 (04-21-2024),Roy Tucker (04-21-2024),Run-D.L.C (04-21-2024)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #2
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    13,014

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Couple observations:

    - The starting pitching is night and day from last year. Every day, there is a legitimate option to take the ball. Rather than depending on Luke Weaver, the Reds turned to Nick Lodolo. That's a solid tradeoff. Even better, those numbers are likely to improve-- last year, the starters' ERA ballooned to 5.43 by the end-- more than a half-run of inadequacy that this season's starters look unlikely to replicate. Having that one guy on the staff who can spot start has, so far, been a fine addition. That's helpful, considering how poorly Phillips and Richardson have pitched in AAA (and the injury to Williamson).

    - I'm shocked that the bullpen ERA is close to last year.

    - The secondary average seems to be a Red focus-- grab guys with power and speed to augment the ability to add bases. It should improve as Friedl, Marte, and McLain get healthy-- if they get healthy. Might be time to make a deal or two-- A high OBP guy would be helpful. I have to think, a healthy Jacob Hurtubise or Blake Dunn would have already pushed Bubba to the curb. If the offense continues to struggle, I might move in that direction anyway. He can play all three OF spots and free up Steer for more IF duty.

    - Trading for a Gold Glove level infielder, then watching him botch two plays and make two more errors within the first couple of weeks of serious playing time is frustrating. So is seeing the guy who's on the team as a glove screw one up that leads to multiple runs. Steer and India are poor gloves. EDLC and CES are young and prone to mental mistakes. Benson is learning on the job in CF too. The other guys don't really have that excuse. Their primary jobs are to make up for the iron gloves and youth elsewhere.

  5. Likes:

    Kingspoint (04-22-2024)

  6. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,889

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Couple observations:

    - The starting pitching is night and day from last year. Every day, there is a legitimate option to take the ball. Rather than depending on Luke Weaver, the Reds turned to Nick Lodolo. That's a solid tradeoff. Even better, those numbers are likely to improve-- last year, the starters' ERA ballooned to 5.43 by the end-- more than a half-run of inadequacy that this season's starters look unlikely to replicate. Having that one guy on the staff who can spot start has, so far, been a fine addition. That's helpful, considering how poorly Phillips and Richardson have pitched in AAA (and the injury to Williamson).

    - I'm shocked that the bullpen ERA is close to last year.

    - The secondary average seems to be a Red focus-- grab guys with power and speed to augment the ability to add bases. It should improve as Friedl, Marte, and McLain get healthy-- if they get healthy. Might be time to make a deal or two-- A high OBP guy would be helpful. I have to think, a healthy Jacob Hurtubise or Blake Dunn would have already pushed Bubba to the curb. If the offense continues to struggle, I might move in that direction anyway. He can play all three OF spots and free up Steer for more IF duty.

    - Trading for a Gold Glove level infielder, then watching him botch two plays and make two more errors within the first couple of weeks of serious playing time is frustrating. So is seeing the guy who's on the team as a glove screw one up that leads to multiple runs. Steer and India are poor gloves. EDLC and CES are young and prone to mental mistakes. Benson is learning on the job in CF too. The other guys don't really have that excuse. Their primary jobs are to make up for the iron gloves and youth elsewhere.
    Agree on this, but I’m not worried about the offense. Reds at home have the 8th best OPS, it’s just the road games that destroyed the numbers, and particularly the series in Seattle. And that Mariners ballpark is totally opposite to GABP, and a quick West Coast trip is never easy.

    To me, this season is all about run prevention, getting the team into a normal range - or better - in that department. So far so good, though they have to keep working on the position player defense.

  7. Likes:

    Marc D (04-21-2024)

  8. #4
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    32,281

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    I think the offense will be fine when the weather warms up. EDLC seems to have taken a big step forward they have several good hitters throughout the line-up.

    For me it still comes down to Montas, Greene, Lodolo, Abbott and Ashcraft. Montas is still a huge question. Greene has been better than his stats IMO, but he's subject to occasional HR meltdowns. The defense let him down a couple of times. I think Ashcraft looks like a solid anchor who can go out and give a solid effort and leave the game in a winnable state. Abbott looks great so far as long as he can avoid the HR when the weather heats up. Lodolo has had the repetitive motion catch up with him three years in a row in the form of blisters, back pain and a stress fracture in his leg. Last year he was spectacular for 4 starts, then the leg started bother him, he blew up for three starts and gave up a ton of HR and runs and then was out. He's made two starts and has looked great. Same as last year after 2 starts. If he's still looking great with no health concerns at the end of May, then I'll think we have something.

    The defense is probably going to be suspect until Friedl and McLain can return. EDLC has looked a lot better on defense that last week to 10 days after an awful defensive start. That in itself will go a long way to improving the overall team defense. Stephenson also looks like he's taken a couple of steps forward behind the plate. I think Steer and CES have been fine in LF and at 1B. Not really worried about those 2 positions. Fraley is good in RF and Fairchild seems like a solid platoonmate moving forward. For me, it all comes down to 2B, SS and CF. As those three positions go, so goes the defense most of the time. EDLC has seemingly stepped up at SS. Hopefully he doesn't regress. We know there is a significant defensive problem at 2B and Benson has been better than expected in CF, though he probably doesn't really belong there. When Friedl and McLain return, we should see massive improvement. Until then, the defense is going to bite the team sporadically throughout the season.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  9. Likes:

    Kingspoint (04-22-2024)

  10. #5
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    57,424

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    CES and the lack of more than a single walk is treading into rarified air. If you had said that Elly would get four in a single 9-inning game before CES had his second one I'd would questioned that

    A lot of guys have gone that long with none or only one BB in the past 20 years (Peraza, Phillips, Iglesias, Taveras, Hamilton, Frazier, Heisey, even Rolen) but to start the season he's etching his name in Reds history, though the RBI number surprised me

    Code:
    PA	BB	Player	             Span Started	TB	RBI	OPS
    80	0	Eddie Miller		4/21/1943	21	7	.525
    80	1	CES		        3/28/2024	24	12	.499
    83	0	Chico Ruiz		4/13/1964	27	4	.570
    83	0	John Dobbs		4/17/1902	29	4	.714
    84	1	F Baumholtz		4/19/1948	20	5	.485
    87	1	J Outlaw		4/20/1937	32	4	.675

  11. Likes:

    GAC (04-27-2024)

  12. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,889

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    CES and the lack of more than a single walk is treading into rarified air. If you had said that Elly would get four in a single 9-inning game before CES had his second one I'd would questioned that

    A lot of guys have gone that long with none or only one BB in the past 20 years (Peraza, Phillips, Iglesias, Taveras, Hamilton, Frazier, Heisey, even Rolen) but to start the season he's etching his name in Reds history, though the RBI number surprised me

    Code:
    PA	BB	Player	             Span Started	TB	RBI	OPS
    80	0	Eddie Miller		4/21/1943	21	7	.525
    80	1	CES		        3/28/2024	24	12	.499
    83	0	Chico Ruiz		4/13/1964	27	4	.570
    83	0	John Dobbs		4/17/1902	29	4	.714
    84	1	F Baumholtz		4/19/1948	20	5	.485
    87	1	J Outlaw		4/20/1937	32	4	.675
    I have no idea why Bell chose to hit CES third in the lineup. I think it sent the wrong message. Iíd move him down to, say, eighth, tell him heís still in the lineup everyday, and hope he relaxes and reverts to normal form.

  13. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    4,216

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Martinez moving to the pen should help lower that BP ERA. If they can keep the main 5 SP healthy most of the year I think they have a legit shot at the postseason. CES has been the biggest disappointment so far. 1 BB to 25 SO isn't playable long term especially when he's not getting to his power often enough. Elly, Steer, Fraley, and lately Stephenson have carried the offense. I'm seeing some red flags with Benson that are concerning. 35% SO rate with a lot of swing and miss. If they can tread water around .500 until Friedl and Marte get back that should put them in a decent spot to make a move or two at the deadline(assuming they actually want to this year).

  14. #8
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    13,014

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Stephenson also looks like he's taken a couple of steps forward behind the plate.
    This has been the most out of nowhere surprise on the team, IMO.

  15. Likes:

    mth123 (04-21-2024)

  16. #9
    Member Dave C's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2023
    Location
    Chandler AZ
    Posts
    2,650

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Benson is fading rather quickly these last couple of weeks as well. Now under .200 and leads the team in strikeouts at 27 in 66 AB's. His defense is there but he's been overlooked on the struggling list behind Candy and CES.

    I expect CES to come around and Candy to be what he's been in the past. Benson is the one I hope can right the ship but it looks like he's been figured out. Time to adjust.

  17. #10
    Member LiferJim's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    Southwest Ohio
    Posts
    3,167

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I have no idea why Bell chose to hit CES third in the lineup. I think it sent the wrong message. Iíd move him down to, say, eighth, tell him heís still in the lineup everyday, and hope he relaxes and reverts to normal form.


    I agree. It made zero sense to bat him third. They already knew he was a free swinger that didnít take many walks. I still believe he will figure it out soon, but I still donít see him as a number 3 hitter, yet.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Life is what happens when you're making other plans... John Lennon

  18. #11
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    57,424

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Quote Originally Posted by LiferJim View Post
    I agree. It made zero sense to bat him third. They already knew he was a free swinger that didn’t take many walks. I still believe he will figure it out soon, but I still don’t see him as a number 3 hitter, yet.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Free swinger is overstating it at this point. He's on pace for seven BB in 550 PA's, In the expansion era the lowest BB total for that many PAs was Dee Gordon in 2018 with nine. If the Reds are lucky he'll right himself, but at best he's gonna give us Salvador Perez numbers with that approach

  19. Likes:

    LiferJim (04-21-2024),Powder River (04-21-2024),RiverRat13 (04-21-2024)

  20. #12
    Member Kingspoint's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    13,182

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    During Friday's 7-1 win, Stephenson scorched a sixth-inning solo homer to the second deck of left-field seats with a 111 mph exit velocity.

    Entering Saturday night, according to Statcast, Stephenson's barrel percentage of 24.2 was in the 100th percentile of MLB hitters and his hard-hit rate (51.5 percent) was in the 90th percentile.

    However, Stephenson's expected slugging percentage (.513) was 118 points higher than his actual slugging percentage (.395). His expected batting average (.260) was 51 points higher than his actual average (.209).

    “Everybody says it evens out. I don’t know if that’s true or not," Stephenson said. "At the end of the day, we control the things we can control. If I hit it hard and it’s right at somebody, I can live with that. It’s a long year.”
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  21. Likes:

    GAC (04-27-2024),Kc61 (04-21-2024),Powder River (04-21-2024),RiverfrontRed (04-21-2024)

  22. #13
    Member Kingspoint's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    13,182

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Quote Originally Posted by LiferJim View Post
    I agree. It made zero sense to bat him third. They already knew he was a free swinger that didn’t take many walks. I still believe he will figure it out soon, but I still don’t see him as a number 3 hitter, yet.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    There were more important things going on at the time, the first was not putting EDLC and CES back-to-back, putting EDLC lower in the order and protecting him with Steer vs RH and Fairchild vs LH. With India and Fraley being the two best hitters that drive the pitch-count up so others behind them can see the various pitches that are thrown, placing CES' extreme HR potential 3rd was a good idea to break up the two lefties of Benson and Fraley (Candelario was hitting 4th, then Fraley). Once it was shown that EDLC had tremendously improved his plate discipline and he was getting it going, he no longer needed any protection and Steer could move to 3/4 in the order on a more permanent basis. Letting EDLC then continue to hit in the 6th spot without the great protection behind him was the next problem Bell wanted to address. The goal is to get that yearly MVP-candidate improving at the best rate possible. Same goes with the yearly 40-HR potential of CES.

    Bell's done a great job so far, especially when you consider that he lost the team's best hitter AND table-setter from last year, Friedl. Add in McLain, his likely #3 hole hitter, and Marte, who was dynamic at the plate last season and got better as his season went along, and Bell had a lot of mixing up to do and decisions to make regarding the priorities of the lineup for both now and the potential growth of the future. Then he loses Candelario twice, first to injury and then to a bug, and he needed to get Thompson some plate appearances to develop his season, and the high number of LH-Starting Pitchers thrown at the team and there was a lot to consider.

    I'm certain that I've only touched on the tip of the iceberg as far as all the concerns that Bell has every day/night/week/month/season/road/home/matchup/availability/trends/intangibles/etc. that he deals with.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  23. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,889

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    There were more important things going on at the time, the first was not putting EDLC and CES back-to-back, putting EDLC lower in the order and protecting him with Steer vs RH and Fairchild vs LH. With India and Fraley being the two best hitters that drive the pitch-count up so others behind them can see the various pitches that are thrown, placing CES' extreme HR potential 3rd was a good idea to break up the two lefties of Benson and Fraley (Candelario was hitting 4th, then Fraley). Once it was shown that EDLC had tremendously improved his plate discipline and he was getting it going, he no longer needed any protection and Steer could move to 3/4 in the order on a more permanent basis. Letting EDLC then continue to hit in the 6th spot without the great protection behind him was the next problem Bell wanted to address. The goal is to get that yearly MVP-candidate improving at the best rate possible. Same goes with the yearly 40-HR potential of CES.

    Bell's done a great job so far, especially when you consider that he lost the team's best hitter AND table-setter from last year, Friedl. Add in McLain, his likely #3 hole hitter, and Marte, who was dynamic at the plate last season and got better as his season went along, and Bell had a lot of mixing up to do and decisions to make regarding the priorities of the lineup for both now and the potential growth of the future. Then he loses Candelario twice, first to injury and then to a bug, and he needed to get Thompson some plate appearances to develop his season, and the high number of LH-Starting Pitchers thrown at the team and there was a lot to consider.

    I'm certain that I've only touched on the tip of the iceberg as far as all the concerns that Bell has every day/night/week/month/season/road/home/matchup/availability/trends/intangibles/etc. that he deals with.
    Good thoughts, but I’m not persuaded that hitting CES third was a good idea. I don’t think it was best for his development.

    Not sure that the purpose was to break up the lefties - as you note, Candy (switch hitter) batted behind CES when this experiment was undertaken. I think the purpose was to get better pitches for young Messrs. CES and EDLC. Bat a good hitter behind each, pitchers won’t want to walk the young guys, so they get strikes to hit.

    Which is fine, but that didn’t require CES to be put in the third spot. In today’s lineup, CES hit fifth and batted in front of Candy. That was a positive step.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-21-2024 at 05:41 PM.

  24. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Ft. Lauderdale, FL
    Posts
    331

    Re: Some Reds Stats after 20 games, 2024

    The injury to McClain and suspension to Marte press the roster somewhat. The only answer Espinal provides is a 26th man glove infielder. There is no reason to think that he will provide much offensively. Same with Thompson. Can carry one but not two long term. Have to assume (hope or expect) that both CES and Candy will hit. India and Benson are really scuffling. Not sure about the remedy but need another bat.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator