Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 24

Thread: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

  1. #1
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    13,632

    Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    At this point, most of the best, healthy prospective hitters have been able to put up 200-250 PAs during the 2024 season. Healthy pitchers have gone 10+ starts as well. That's likely not enough to make grand proclamations about whether they will fail or succeed as major leaguers, but it is enough to gauge their season's success (or failure) so far.

    Overview
    What's gone right?

    Most Red prospects have enjoyed good health-- especially since season-long injuries or suspensions took out several interesting arms (Ty Floyd, Hunter Hollan, Logan Van Treeck, Kenya Huggins) and top prospects (Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo) before games even began. AAA Louisville is two games over .500, on the backs of a 30+ AAAA group of bats and unheralded prospects who've developed nicely on the pitching staff. The Dayton Dragons are treading water, at 30-31 currently, with a lineup that hasn't hit much and a pitching staff that's been patched together from spare parts and suspects. Ditto Daytona, though with fewer seeming pre-season prospects. The ACL Reds have shown, in about 100 PAs, to be precociously talented and a team to watch.

    What's gone wrong?
    If you're a pitching prospect in the Red pipeline, chances are that you've fallen on your face. Rhett Lowder's struggled in AA. Chase Petty, even more so. Connor Phillips has had perhaps the worst season I've ever seen for a would-be top prospect. Lyon Richardson has sucked too. Of MLB's top nine Red pitching prospects, only Julian Aguiar and (to a lesser extent) Adam Serwinowski have been consistently good. The offensive prospects haven't fared much better. 10 of the 17 offensive prospects on MLB's top 30 list have had either poor or lost seasons so far. That's... a lot of fail. And it's not young guys who have revealed themselves to have feet of clay-- it's pretty much the top guys in the system. Of the Red top prospects pre-season, the first six and seven of the first eight have been really, really bad.

    Sigh.

    Individual Highlights
    Still, in a season wherein so, so much has gone wrong, there are still bright spots. (This is perhaps one of baseball's most enduring appeals.)

    Among them, a top 10:
    - Sal Stewart seems to be a legitimate hitter-- and might be able to stick at 2B. Just 20, he's more than holding his own in Dayton, with an 822 OPS in 238 PAs. (The average OPS in the league is below 700; Stewart's numbers work out to a 133 wRC+.)

    - One level below, both Ricardo Cabrera and Alfredo Duno have done well in Low A Daytona despite being two of the youngest prospects in the league. Duno's put up a 127 wRC+ in Low A, while Cabrera clocks in at 32% better than league average.

    - Back in Dayton, Hector Rodriguez is continuing to show his bat is for real. His walks are drying up a bit-- a bad sign for AA and above-- but he's showing more power than evaluators thought he might ever show, and his BA is still well above average. A 116 wRC+ isn't earth-shattering, but he's still only 20 and may grow into a bit more patience and pop.

    - Sammy Stafura has been perhaps the best part of the Red farm successes. He's beaten up on both ACL and Low A pitchers to the tune of a 970 OPS in nearly 150 PAs this season. He's going this against pitchers two years older than he as well. That 157 wRC+ tops Red prospects, fwiw, and would likely make him the top prospective hitter among Red prospects by year's end. Not only that, he also bumped Cabrera off SS and looks to be a legitimate fielder there defensively.

    - If Sammy Stafura wasn't a part of the Red development system, Shen-En Lin could be getting all the praise. As is, he's flying slightly below the radar in the ACL. He, too, is at a 154 wRC+ and has displayed exceptional defensive chops at 3B. He's a bit K happy, but his neearly 20% BB% props that up. His .160 ISO might be concerning moving forward, but he looks, at the moment, like a solid table-setter prospect who can provide plus defense and some SB. That's not nothing. He's also very young for his level and may develop a bit more strength. Right now, that .358 BA is really, really nice to see.

    - The best Red starting prospect season probably belongs to AA Chattanooga ace, Julian Aguiar. He's outperforming his FIP for the third season in a row, largely because he refuses to walk anyone. He's limiting HR at a decent clip and racking up solid innings totals. Right now, Aguiar looks like a BOR innings guy. That has monster value if he can continue to develop.

    - Another guy who's done largely the same thing with the same type of peripherals is Carson Spiers. Spiers has a bit more of a K game, but he's just limiting baserunners through mixing his four-pitch arsenal effectively. That's another BOR guy who looks like he might be able to give the Reds some quality depth in the vein of a Ben Lively for three or four seasons.

    - Jay Allen has come back from injury purgatory to put up the best offensive numbers among Red prospects. His 163 wRC+ is the stuff of All-Stars. This, after two seasons of injuries makes it all the sweeter for the former HS draft pick. (This is one reason why draft classes can't be analyzed effectively until years later.) He's showing power, speed, patience, and doesn't seem to chase much (as his 23% K rate would attest). Allen will almost assuredly be bumped to AA at the halfway point of the Midwest season. He's still just 21(!), so he has quite a bit of time, though options and a 40-man roster spot could soon become problematic.

    - No one will find Nestor Lorant's name among MLB's top Red prospects, but his season so far looks like it belongs with any of them. He's among the Florida State League leaders in ERA, with a microscopic 1.35 in 46.2 innings. He's limiting hits (6H/ 9IP), BBs (2.1BB/ 9), and racking up strike outs (10.6) at well above average levels. Lorant won't blow anyone away with triple digit fastball velocity, but he knows how to pitch and has a very good change-up. Typically, that's meant the prospect will struggle moving forward. But so far, he's been nails this year. At 22, he could be moved up as draftees sign, but, IMO, it's not very likely. He's a good story in a year wherein most of the best prospects have really, really struggled, so he makes the list.

  2. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (06-15-2024),Boss-Hog (06-15-2024),Fil3232 (06-15-2024),HokieRed (06-18-2024),Kingspoint (06-17-2024),Marc D (06-15-2024),marcshoe (06-20-2024),membengal (06-15-2024),Reds Freak (06-15-2024),Redsfaithful (06-15-2024),Rick Palmer (06-19-2024),RiverRat13 (06-15-2024),Tuff Nut (06-15-2024)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #2
    Member Tuff Nut's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    NW, Tn.
    Posts
    1,083

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    I am also liking the way Pitelli is handling himself. Especially skipping a level and seemingly not missing a beat.

  5. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    4,626

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Lowder and Petty are fine. Lowder had two bad starts early in his AA stint and has had 3 good ones in a row with 15 IP 4 ER and a 19/2 SO to BB rate. Petty is barely 21 and 7 of his last 9 starts have been good ones. They also play on a terrible team with no real position player prospects except for the guys that are just now starting to move up. Neither of those two have the command issues of Phillips or Richardson either.

  6. Likes:

    Marc D (06-15-2024),ochoa30 (06-18-2024)

  7. #4
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    21,290

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Still amazed at people hand wringing over Lowder. So silly.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  8. Likes:

    HokieRed (06-18-2024),ochoa30 (06-18-2024)

  9. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    4,814

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    After a poor start, Ben Brutti has pitched well over his last 7 starts.

  10. Likes:

    camisadelgolf (06-16-2024)

  11. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Posts
    10,435

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    That AA team reminds of some of the putrid Buckley years. Even the Bowden years in the mid 90s when Marge gutted the scouting department had some good prospects that looked promising in Winston Salem. Anyone remember Motorboat Jones the OF? Chad Mottola. They at least looked trade bait so someone else could be fooled by them. At least when prospects flame out quickly it happens there.

  12. #7
    Member Dave C's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2023
    Location
    Chandler AZ
    Posts
    3,464

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    I'll add another plug for the non-pedigreed Pitelli. I've been watching a lot of the minor league games this and he looks years ahead of his level on both sides. No idea what the ceiling is but he looks like he can play 3 infield positions well and he's hitting just about all types of pitches hard while also showing some nice speed on the bases.

    I've been at a number of the ACL games and Lin looks the part as well. Stafura tore it up here and hasn't slowed down in low A. ....So many shortstops.

    Lastly it seems that Stewart gets underrated by a lot of people. He just hits... hits to all fields... hits when runners are on and is starting to show some power.

  13. Likes:

    Fil3232 (06-15-2024),JCM11 (06-15-2024),Marc D (06-15-2024),RED VAN HOT (06-15-2024),Rick Palmer (06-19-2024),Tuff Nut (06-16-2024),UKFlounder (06-15-2024),wally post (06-15-2024)

  14. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    31

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Really thoughtful write-up! Curious if you have thoughts on any promotions later this month or around the draft? Here are some I’m thinking of but could be way off base (pun intended):

    SP Julian Aguiar -> AAA Louisville
    IF Nick Northcutt -> AAA Louisville
    OF Jay Allen -> AA Chattanooga
    IF Sal Stewart -> AA Chattanooga
    C Connor Burns -> High-A Dayton
    IF Ricardo Cabrera -> High A Dayton
    SP Ben Brutti -> High A Dayton
    RP Nestor Lorant -> High A Dayton

  15. #9
    Member texasdave's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    19,966

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Adam Serwinowski is someone to keep an eye on, IMO.

  16. Likes:

    mth123 (06-15-2024),Rick Palmer (06-19-2024),Tuff Nut (06-16-2024),WrongVerb (06-15-2024)

  17. #10
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Woodbridge, VA
    Posts
    18,584

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Lin to Daytona?
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  18. #11
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    13,632

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsndyt View Post
    Really thoughtful write-up! Curious if you have thoughts on any promotions later this month or around the draft? Here are some I’m thinking of but could be way off base (pun intended):

    SP Julian Aguiar -> AAA Louisville
    IF Nick Northcutt -> AAA Louisville
    OF Jay Allen -> AA Chattanooga
    IF Sal Stewart -> AA Chattanooga
    C Connor Burns -> High-A Dayton
    IF Ricardo Cabrera -> High A Dayton
    SP Ben Brutti -> High A Dayton
    RP Nestor Lorant -> High A Dayton
    All of these are possible, IMO.

    I'd guess Allen and Lorant are most likely to move up.

    I also expect several prospects to be released.

  19. #12
    Winning is fun. RiverRat13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    2,038

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if Lowder continues to have a 5:1 K:BB ratio, he will be just fine.

    Great write-up, BZ! I really appreciate the effort you put into these posts.

  20. Likes:

    mth123 (06-15-2024),RED VAN HOT (06-16-2024),Tuff Nut (06-16-2024)

  21. #13
    Member Kingspoint's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    14,008

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Jay Allen is hitting .227/.370/.409/.779 in June. 10 hits in his 50 PA's in June. 2 homeruns, 2 doubles.

    The league has made some adjustments. Not so certain he gets called up as soon as you think he will. He's so very young.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  22. #14
    Member AlaskaReds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    889

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Chase Petty, who's been better recently with another nice line tonight: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K

  23. Likes:

    Kingspoint (06-20-2024),RedTeamGo! (06-19-2024)

  24. #15
    Member Dave C's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2023
    Location
    Chandler AZ
    Posts
    3,464

    Re: Who's Hot? Who's Not? Mid-June Edition

    Connor Philips with another poor outing. 4 IP, 4 hits, 3 hr's, 6 ER, 3BB and 4K's. Season ERA now over 10...

    That said, I've been told that srikeouts are more indicative of prospect pitching than ERA. So, his 8.4 rate should have him in the majors soon...


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator