Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post

Now I'm hearing we have Greene, Lodolo and Abbott and the rotation is going to be a strength. They should have added a legit starter then and, IMO, they need to add a legit starter this winter.

^^ It's this.

The Reds have Greene at the top of the rotation, then Lodolo then Abbott. The problem here is that Lodolo will get hurt, he always gets hurt, so that means half the season when he is out, Abbott is your de facto #2. Guess what, Abbott is currently rocking a 5.02 FIP. That's not a guy I want as a #3 starter, let alone as the 2nd best starter for half the season when Lodolo is out.

The Reds absolutely need someone to slot behind Greene. Greene, FA, Lodolo, Abbott then a battle Royale for the 5th spot.

The Reds SP is Greene, 4.00 FIP Lodolo, 5 FIP Abbott, and everyone else had a 5.00+ ERA as a starter. (Martinez' is 4.95, so I round up for arguments sake.)

Rolling with a Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Williamson/Ashcraft/Lowder rotation is asking for trouble-- especially when Lodolo gets hurt and you basically have a 5.00 FIP guy Abbott as your de facto #2 pitcher- and every SP outside of Greene is a 5+ FIP. That won't win you anything.


Not good enough. The Reds are 14th in runs scored, 12th in runs allowed.

The Reds basically had 1,000 of negative oWaR ab's this year in Martini, Ford, CES, Marte, Benson and Fraley. A healthy McLain helps eliminate 600 of those bad ab's. Literally adding a DH/1B/RF who can have just a whopping 1.0 WaR is a huge net positive on the team, by at least being a positive WaR hitter that takes away ab's from negative WaR hitters.

There is the potential for a lot of addition by subtraction in terms of Reds hitters next year. Removing a lot of the negative WaR ab's for even 0.0 WaR ab's.

Literally adding a 1 WaR RF/DH/1B and a healthy McLain and the Reds are a top 10 offense.

But pitching---- the Reds desperately need at least a #3 to slot in behind Lodolo pushing Abbott to the 4th starter--- and praying that whomever wins the #5 spot in the rotation has a 4.50 ERA or better. Then the Reds have a chance.

McLain coming back is like a FA signing. As much as I will acknowledge the black hole of ab's that came from Benson, Fraley, CES, Martini, Marte, Ford etc etc---- the Reds priority this offseason needs to be a SP. Too bad Candy and Pagan are getting a combined $24mm next year-- that's your SP money.

With a healthy McLain (and maybe Friedl,) the Reds hitting isn't as bad as it appears-- because those guys suck up the wasted ab's this year. The pitching is also not as good as it appears--- Abbott is pitching way above his peripherals-- and the back end of the rotation (for 2025) all has question marks. Williamson, Ashcraft, Spiers, Lowder, Aguiar.

Basically the Reds need a Jack Flaherty type on a 1 year deal as I don't see them committing long term to a #2 type pitcher-- and a Matt Chapman/TEoscar Hernandez type hitter on a 1 year deal. Then the Reds are a playoff team.

TLDR: Personally I would prioritize a #2 SP over a hitter next year, mainly because they are harder to find and McLain coming back is like a FA signing.