Pitching depth, Where i think they should be next season

[mth123]

Look, I think we'd all love to see them sign a #2 starter to pair with Greene. That'd be fantastic.

I've followed the Reds closely enough - and I know you have too - to not expect that to happen, even if it should.

They've signaled that they want to keep the rotation young and affordable, and the Reds want to insulate themselves from higher-risk, long-term FA deals. That mean's keeping the pipeline flowing.

I do think we'll see $20MM or so invested into the pitching, but my guess it will be used on a swingman (like Martinez) and/or a quality bullpen arm.

I understand the way they usually operate and the result of that is that they usually suck and are out of the play-off race by the end of May. They have a Cy Young caliber Starter and an MVP caliber position player. They have them for the next 5 years. After that, it's back to the dark days of Reds baseball. During that period, I would expect them to operate a little differently and try to win a World series each of those seasons. That doesn't mean they will win one, they'd be lucky just to win a play-off series at this point, but every season from now through 2029 the goal should be winning the World Series. Not shoot for 85 wins and hope, not to have the best stocked pipeline of B-/C+ prospects and not to promote individual awards for individual players. Win the World Series, that's the only goal. I don't think a team going into a season with two question marks in the rotation is indicative of a team trying to win the World Series.

I know I'm fighting against windmills here, but they didn't put a team around Griffey. They didn't put a team around Votto and for most of that 25 year period they've been a league laughingstock. I'm hoping that after all of that futility they've learned something and will do what is best for winning the World Series. That may have implications for Lowder, Spiers, Benson, CES and a bunch of other guys, but considerations for those individual players should be secondary to doing what is best to win a World Series. I know it won't happen, but it's what I believe they should do to win and any other option is a compromise/half measure - just like Candy, Montas and Pagan were last winter.

[RedTeamGo!]

They aren't out of the playoff race because of pitching, though. Its the offense. The one thing I am actually confident about right now with regard to the future of this franchise is the starting rotation. I think they have a pipeline going.

They need to spend money on legit bats.

[mth123]

They aren't out of the playoff race because of pitching, though. Its the offense. The one thing I am actually confident about right now with regard to the future of this franchise is the starting rotation. I think they have a pipeline going.

They need to spend money on legit bats.

They aren't because they've covered a lot of innings with guys who won't be back next year. Ashcraft made 15 starts, Montas made 19, Martinez has made 7 so far. They've had 4 from openers. That's 45 starts plus whatever they get from Martinez the rest of the season that they need to cover. I don't put 50 or so open starts on an unproven Spiers and some rookies.

A lot of those innings weren't especially good, but they still need to be covered. Personally, I think Spiers fits nicely in Martinez hybrid role (look at his splits to see why that's a better idea than making him a full-time starter). They can stick Lowder in the 5th spot. They still need another starter IMO and not a bottom of the pile Luke Weaver type, but a legit big-league starter. Aguiar and Petty are the depth pieces.

The Reds rotation has a 4.31 FIP which ranks 20th in MLB and a 4.44 xFIP which ranks 24th. They need to replace those innings with an upgrade if they are serious about winning IMO.

Coming into 2023, I advocated for a starting pitcher and all I heard was how they had Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft and the rotation would be a strength and it was a disaster. Now I'm hearing we have Greene, Lodolo and Abbott and the rotation is going to be a strength. They should have added a legit starter then and, IMO, they need to add a legit starter this winter.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They aren't because they've covered a lot of innings with guys who won't be back next year. Ashcraft made 15 starts, Montas made 19, Martinez has made 7 so far. They've had 4 from openers. That's 45 starts plus whatever they get from Martinez the rest of the season that they need to cover. I don't put 50 or so open starts on an unproven Spiers and some rookies.

A lot of those innings weren't especially good, but they still need to be covered. Personally, I think Spiers fits nicely in Martinez hybrid role (look at his splits to see why that's a better idea than making him a full-time starter). They can stick Lowder in the 5th spot. They still need another starter IMO and not a bottom of the pile Luke Weaver type, but a legit big-league starter. Aguiar and Petty are the depth pieces.

The Reds rotation has a 4.31 FIP which ranks 20th in MLB and a 4.44 xFIP which ranks 24th. They need to replace those innings with an upgrade if they are serious about winning IMO.

Coming into 2023, I advocated for a starting pitcher and all I heard was how they had Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft and the rotation would be a strength and it was a disaster. Now I'm hearing we have Greene, Lodolo and Abbott and the rotation is going to be a strength. They should have added a legit starter then and, IMO, they need to add a legit starter this winter.

You're making an absolute metric ton of assumptions in this post, not the least of which is who won't be back next year.

Montas? Okay, sure.

Everyone else is a question mark, though Ashcraft is, as far as I know, a Red. He has an elbow strain-- that is not a death knell, nor is it assured he will be out the entire season. It's possible, I guess, though definitely not assured, as you suggest here.

[UKFlounder]

I think mth and RedTeamGo are both right. The offense is the bigger problem currently, but I agree the pitching also needs more help next year.

For instance, even if Williamson and Ashcroft are healthy, are they good enough? Ashcraft was struggling in some of his most recent starts, so even if he’s back, an upgrade might be nice. Lodolo’s durability is also an obvious concern, and Williamson is at least a question mark.

[mth123]

I think mth and RedTeamGo are both right. The offense is the bigger problem currently, but I agree the pitching also needs more help next year.

For instance, even if Williamson and Ashcroft are healthy, are they good enough? Ashcraft was struggling in some of his most recent starts, so even if he’s back, an upgrade might be nice. Lodolo’s durability is also an obvious concern, and Williamson is at least a question mark.

That's all I'm saying. They need to spend around $50 Million on a starter, a late inning reliever and clean-up hitter. Just because the need hitting in the worst way doesn't mean they can ignore those other things.

[mth123]

You're making an absolute metric ton of assumptions in this post, not the least of which is who won't be back next year.

Montas? Okay, sure.

Everyone else is a question mark, though Ashcraft is, as far as I know, a Red. He has an elbow strain-- that is not a death knell, nor is it assured he will be out the entire season. It's possible, I guess, though definitely not assured, as you suggest here.

Somebody is making assumptions,

I think counting on Ashcraft, Williamson and unproven kids is the assumption that everyone is making. At this point they have Greene, Lodolo and Abbott.

- Assuming an unproven Spiers whose track record says he's better in the bullpen is an assumption.
- Assuming Williamson, who has missed the entire season, will be back and effective is an assumption
- Assuming Ashcraft, who is on the 60 day IL with arm problems and wasn't very good in the first place, would be an adequate solution is an assumption.
- Assuming Lowder, Aguiar or Petty or any other kid who has never thrown a pitch at the big league level is an adequate solution is an assumption.

That's a ton of assumptions. I'm actually advocating for going out and getting a proven, healthy and effective starter simply because I don't want to rely on a high percentage of those assumptions working out.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yeah, I am not saying don't get a starter, I am just saying they should get a BOR/MOR type. They should be focused on getting a legit hitter.

[mth123]

Yeah, I am not saying don't get a starter, I am just saying they should get a BOR/MOR type. They should be focused on getting a legit hitter.

MOR to me means a reasonable expectation of a 4.20 ERA/FIP or better. That is what I asked for. BOR means somebody who is there by default and you'd replace him if you had an alternative. Don't want another one of those.

Here is a name. Michael Lorenzen. I think he'd be an OK fit as a lowest acceptable option. Very similar to Abbott. Not a lot of Ks, too many walks, HR may be an issue, good ERA, scary FIP. I'd rather aim higher, but he'd be better than an injury comeback, a bunch of unproven kids or a guy who was good 3 years ago. If the other guys come through, he could pitch in relief and he's probably going to cost $10 Million +.

Yes they need a legit hitter too. Somebody who will make $25 Million + as a free agent or somebody who they'd trade for who would cost a few prospects that would make everyone freak-out.

[Kc61]

Here is the starting pitching depth including current major leaguers and advanced prospects.

Greene
Lodolo
Abbott
Spiers
Lowder
Burns
Petty
Aguiar
Ashcraft
Williamson

Doesn’t even include Lyon Richardson who’s a talented guy still in the running ro be a starter. Doesn’t include Nick Martinez who’ll probably opt out.

This is going to be the main fountain for Reds starting pitching in the next couple of years. It’s pretty darn good. Maybe a stop gap veteran as a safeguard againt injury or other bumps in the road.

[camisadelgolf]

They aren't out of the playoff race

ftfy

[RedTeamGo!]

ftfy

I know they technically are not, but I wasn't born yesterday

[OldFashionedRed]

Look, I think we'd all love to see them sign a #2 starter to pair with Greene. That'd be fantastic.

I've followed the Reds closely enough - and I know you have too - to not expect that to happen, even if it should.

They've signaled that they want to keep the rotation young and affordable, and the Reds want to insulate themselves from higher-risk, long-term FA deals. That mean's keeping the pipeline flowing.

I do think we'll see $20MM or so invested into the pitching, but my guess it will be used on a swingman (like Martinez) and/or a quality bullpen arm.

I think they really do need another #2-3 SP, and a couple of legitimate bats. The bullpen IMO has been pretty darn good all things considering.

[JCM11]

Anyone who had Spiers penciled into the rotation next year probably needs to come up with a plan B.

[Sea Ray]

Anyone who had Spiers penciled into the rotation next year probably needs to come up with a plan B.

He was throwing batting practice balls in the heart of the plate last night. Blue Jay hitters were swinging out of their heels. They looked real comfy up there facing him